According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has maintained a fluctuating downward trend since September. As of September 9th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from the beginning of the month. Although mainstream polyester staple fiber factories continue to operate with reduced production capacity, raw material prices remain weak, and downstream purchases are cautious according to demand, which has dragged down the polyester staple fiber market.
Specifically, the crude oil market has fluctuated and weakened. As of September 6th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.67 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.06 per barrel. At present, there is a strong expectation for OPEC to increase production in October according to the plan, which weakens the impact of recent crude oil production cuts in Libya and other countries. In addition, the summer peak season for gasoline and diesel consumption has ended, and supply and demand have weakened. The crude oil market lacks positive expectations, and prices are under pressure and declining. Although geopolitical risks still exist, the current market’s main focus is on fundamentals.
The cost side of the PX market is relatively weak, and in terms of supply, the maintenance of the 1 million ton unit of Dongying Weilian and the 2 million ton unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical in China has gradually led to a narrow decrease in PX operating load. The demand side performance is stable, and PX will be in a slight destocking cycle, but the market lacks confidence in the future, and the atmosphere of supply and demand fundamentals game is obvious.
Recently, the decline in PTA prices has become increasingly significant. As of September 8th, the average spot price of PTA in East China was 4906 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.86% from the beginning of the month. International crude oil prices have experienced a wide decline, and PTA cost support has collapsed. In addition, the company’s operating rate remains high, but downstream demand is insufficient, and PTA still faces pressure to accumulate inventory. Under the combination of multiple negative factors, the PTA market continues to weaken. The current PTA industry has not changed much in terms of production, maintaining a high level around 83%. Recently, there have been limited changes in equipment, and PTA supply remains abundant.
There is no significant expectation of improvement in terminal textile demand, and only some autumn and winter fabric orders are likely to increase. Yarn factories lack confidence in the future market and purchase raw materials to maintain essential operations. The weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly rebounded to around 70% of production, and the market is waiting for the downstream peak season to turn around. It is expected that production may slightly increase, and demand for polyester staple fibers will also slightly rebound.
Business analysts believe that there is sufficient supply of raw materials, and there is currently no possibility of a significant decrease in supply in the short term, which is detrimental to the market mentality due to the accumulation of inventory. The downstream market lacks confidence, trading is sluggish, and procurement is mainly focused on consuming inventory, with a cautious wait-and-see approach. The fundamentals are bearish, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will remain stable with a slight adjustment in the short term.
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