Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was consolidating at a low level in early September, and spot prices of various brands fluctuated narrowly. As of September 10th, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 16216.67 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to early September.
Cause analysis
Supply side: Since September, the overall operating rate of PC in China has increased, with the industry average operating rate rising by about 6% to 81% compared to the end of July. Although the spot price within ten days is at the low point of the year, there is ample supply of goods on the market. The manufacturer’s factory pricing is mainly stable, with some enterprises showing slight looseness. The scale of the future maintenance plan is average, and Wanhua Chemical Plant still has room for improvement. There is an expectation of an increase in industry load at a high level. Overall, the domestic PC supply has been at a temporary high in recent times, with a further deepening mismatch between supply and demand, and the market supply side is seriously dragging down PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China changed slightly in early September. At present, the prices of phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials for bisphenol A, are fluctuating, and the cost support is still acceptable. The downstream production of the two main forces is stable with a slight increase, and with stocking up and the approaching holiday, stocking up consumption may remain stable. There is a slight expectation of a decrease in the load of the bisphenol A industry in the future, and the supply of goods is stable with a small decrease. Overall, bisphenol A maintains its support for PC costs..
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Entering the traditional peak season of September, the current pattern has not shown any improvement. The main logic of procurement still leans towards weak rigid demand, with factories taking goods to maintain production. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, the market has poor confidence in the double festival stocking market, buyers are strongly resistant to high priced goods, and consumption remains at a low level. The circulation of goods on site is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.
Future forecast
The PC market was consolidating at a low level in early September. The upstream bisphenol A market is stable with small fluctuations, and the cost support for PC is still acceptable. The load of domestic aggregation plants has increased, and the supply remains high. The current PC price has been at a low point for some time this year, but the market has not rebounded due to bottoming out or the arrival of the “golden nine”. On the contrary, downstream peak season consumption has not yet begun, and weak rigid demand stocking is difficult to drive the market. The poor flow of market supply and demand makes it difficult to correct the supply-demand imbalance in the short term. Business Society predicts that the profound supply-demand contradiction may affect the traditional peak season market, making it difficult for the PC market to rise in the future.
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