According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has experienced narrow fluctuations and a slight upward adjustment in recent days (9.16-9.23). On September 23, the benchmark price of toluene was 6210 yuan/ton, and on September 16, the benchmark price of toluene was 6180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market has been operating steadily with a moderate to strong trend, boosted by the rise in crude oil prices. The mentality of the spot market has improved, and prices are generally firm, resulting in a slight rebound in market prices. Affected by the weak actual demand downstream, the price increase during the week was limited, and the overall operation was stable, moderate, and strong. As of September 23rd, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 6100-6150 yuan/ton
Cost wise: The international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.88 per barrel. The crude oil market has started to decline in this cycle, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile.
Supply side: Sinopec’s quotation for toluene has been partially reduced during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude adjustment among different underground suppliers. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of September 23rd, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton.
Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak
On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $840-842/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of $6/ton from $834-836/ton on September 17th.
Future forecast: From a cost perspective, the expected improvement in the crude oil market will boost market sentiment. At present, the overall inventory of toluene in the supply side is at a stable, medium, and low level, which is a certain positive boost to the market. On the demand side, the downstream market has performed poorly, maintaining the intention of purchasing essential goods. Although there is a demand for stocking up in the downstream near the holiday, the overall demand is still difficult to increase, and the demand side is still weak. Overall, weak demand has constrained the upward potential of the toluene market, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. Focus on downstream stocking situation in the future.
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