Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was weak and consolidated at a low level at the end of September, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a narrow decline. As of September 24th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16083.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.82% compared to early September.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: In early September, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs increased, and by mid month, the industry average operating rate had risen by 6% before continuing to operate sideways, with a current overall load of around 79%. Although spot prices have remained at the low point of the year in the medium to long term, the industry’s weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and there is ample supply of goods on site. In September, the supply was loose, which put pressure on manufacturers to lower their factory prices. The future maintenance plan is sparse, the supply-demand mismatch is profound and difficult to change, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China has been mainly sideways recently. At present, the prices of phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials for bisphenol A, are fluctuating and the cost support is average. The downstream production of the two main forces has limited changes, coupled with insufficient pre holiday stocking heat, the company’s profit situation is not good, and the consumption of bisphenol A has not further improved. The future load of the bisphenol A industry is expected to return to excess, and there is an expectation of increased supply of goods. Overall, the support of bisphenol A for PC cost is stable but gradually weakening.
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. At present, the traditional peak season of “Golden September” has come to an end, and the terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded. The purchasing logic mainly leans towards weak demand. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. The market has not responded well to the double festival stocking market, and buyers are strongly resistant to high priced goods, resulting in slow circulation of goods on site. Due to the delayed peak season consumption, it is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of September, the PC market was running at a low and weak level. The upstream bisphenol A market is stable with small fluctuations, while the support for PC costs is flat. Domestic aggregation plants have high loads and high supply. The current low point of PC prices is weakly consolidating, and downstream peak season consumption has not yet begun, making it difficult for weak demand stocking to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. Business Society predicts that the PC market will not see a significant upward trend in the short to medium term in the future.
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