According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices fluctuated upward this week (9.19-9.29). As of September 29th, spot nickel was reported at 129058 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.33%.
Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday, marking the first such cut since 2020 and exceeding expectations, ushering in the first monetary policy easing cycle in four years. At the same time, the decline of the US dollar has made metals priced in US dollars more attractive to buyers using other currencies. Promote a significant increase in nickel prices and reverse the recent unfavorable market trend.
On the supply side: The situation of oversupply in the nickel market continues, with an increase in growth rate. As of September 27th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 25504 tons, an increase of 2659 tons from last week; On September 27th, LME nickel inventory was 130308 tons, an increase of 6174 tons from last week.
On the demand side: Consumer performance is average, with prices rising and users slowing down their purchases. The stainless steel market is also constrained by a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. As of the end of September, the spot price of stainless steel was 12507.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% from 12757.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 10.21%. The demand for alloys in military and shipping industries is still acceptable, and customers have a strong need to continue.
Market forecast: Macro bullish boost, but inventory pressure, insufficient demand support, and short-term consolidation of nickel prices are expected to be the main focus.
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