According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has seen a significant upward trend since September. As of September 30th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17942 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.46% from 15146 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The recent heavy rainfall in the main production areas of Southeast Asia has affected the rubber cutting process, resulting in slow supply improvement in domestic and foreign raw material production areas, and a significant increase in natural rubber raw material prices. As of September 30th, the price of Thai glue was 78.00 baht/kg, an increase of 16.07% from the price of 67.20 baht/kg at the end of August; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas in China is 18600 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.86% from 14000 yuan/ton at the end of August.
The natural rubber inventory continues to maintain a trend of destocking, which provides certain support for the natural rubber market. As of September 30, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 411800 tons, a decrease of 48300 tons from 460100 tons in late August.
With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has experienced stable but slight fluctuations in production, and downstream stocking demand before the holiday is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of September 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.
Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to experience strong fluctuations after the holiday.
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