According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the end of the National Day holiday, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of rising and falling. As of October 15th, the average market price in East China was 5097 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.43% compared to October 7th.
The geopolitical situation has once again become tense, and international crude oil prices have strengthened significantly, providing upward support for PTA costs. In addition, China has announced a series of economic stimulus policies before the holiday, and the commodity market atmosphere is relatively warm. PTA opened high on the first trading day after the holiday. However, downstream polyester factories showed average demand after the holiday, and at the same time, the international crude oil market fell, leading to a decline in PTA prices.
Looking at the future, on the supply side, the current industry operating rate is around 88%, and it will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, with ample supply of goods.
As of October 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.83 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $77.46 per barrel. The significant decline in international crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for PTA. Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the demand outlook.
Under the impact of cost decline, downstream polyester products have shown weak performance, with prices of polyester staple fiber producers generally decreasing. The industry supply is relatively sufficient, and some large factories still have high inventory. The signal of peak season in the textile factory has not appeared, so purchasing short fibers or maintaining sporadic rigid demand purchases. The polyester filament factory has lowered prices for shipments, but downstream companies still adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the market transaction center is weakening. It is expected that the consumption of raw materials purchased by terminal factories in the early stage will reach a low level starting from mid to late October, and the expectation of replenishment for essential needs will to some extent support their prices.
Business analysts believe that on the cost side, with the decline in international crude oil prices, the focus of cost support has shifted downwards. At the same time, PTA plant maintenance has been limited recently, and the overall market supply is sufficient. There is currently no significant release of new orders downstream of the terminal, maintaining normal production and consuming more raw materials for stocking up in the early stage, resulting in weak procurement follow-up. Short term fundamentals are weak and difficult to change, and PTA prices will continue to decline.
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