According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market first rose and then fell in the first half of October. On October 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% from 5960 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the mixed xylene market saw an overall rebound, with external and crude oil markets rising during the holiday period, driving the domestic market to make up for the holiday. The mixed xylene market saw a rebound of about 5%. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is generally low, lacking downstream support, and the mixed xylene market lacks the driving force to continue rising. Subsequently, with the decline of the external market and the general correction of the domestic market, the market maintains rigid demand trading, and prices continue to decline. Currently, the overall operation is weak.
On the cost side: The international oil price market has risen, and during China’s National Day holiday, international oil prices have significantly increased. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had an impact, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. However, concerns about the global economy and demand outlook still exist in the market, coupled with the end of the US oil peak and the increase in US crude oil inventories suppressing the rise in crude oil prices. Overall, the trend of crude oil prices has risen during the cycle. As of October 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.83 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.46 per barrel.
Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotations mostly rose first and then fell. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and sales. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. As of October 16th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5850-5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton.
Demand side: The trend of xylene is still weak, and the support on the demand side is weak
On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $840-842/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of $6/ton from $834-836/ton on September 17th.
Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to operate weakly in the near future, with weak cost support. In terms of supply, the recent accumulation of port inventory in East China has had a bearish impact on the market. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products is weak, and the purchasing intention is biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the recent bearish impact on the spot market is significant, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.
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