According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there was a significant decline in domestic PTA prices this week (October 14-18). The average spot price of PTA in East China was 4912 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% from the beginning of the week. The weakening of cost support and the increase in PTA supply and demand are the main reasons for the price decline.
Looking at the future market, Hengli Huizhou’s 2.5 million ton PTA plant is planned to restart next week, while Zhongtai Petrochemical’s 1.2 million ton plant will shut down on October 6th and is scheduled to restart in early November. At present, the industry’s operating rate is around 85%, and it will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, with ample supply of goods.
In the crude oil market, as of the 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.67 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.45 per barrel. The recent trend of crude oil prices has fallen, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; However, the recent decline in US crude oil inventories still provides support for the crude oil market, and overall, crude oil market prices are expected to slightly decrease.
The downstream polyester production rate is around 88%, and the peak consumption season is coming to an end, with limited room for further improvement. With the decline in raw material costs, the terminal market is affected by the mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”, and the purchasing willingness is generally low, resulting in relatively insufficient confidence in the subsequent market. Market atmosphere deviation, maintaining a focus on purchasing in small quantities according to demand. The intensification of supply-demand contradictions further puts pressure on the polyester market.
Business analysts believe that under the dual pressure of cost and supply and demand, the PTA market lacks positive news in the short term, and it is expected that prices may continue to show a weak trend.
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