Market Overview: Supply in the East China region continues to be tight, but overall supply in the North is abundant, and some facilities in the East China region may be expected to recover in the future. The tight situation in the East China region may be alleviated. In addition, as prices continue to rise, buying is becoming more cautious. Therefore, the market growth has slowed down, and we are waiting for the settlement of this month to be announced.
Supply side: During the week, major factories in East China were operating at low load. The supply in the East China region continues to be tight, while the northern market is operating at full capacity. As of November 22, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate reached 70.63%, a decrease of -0.22% compared to the same period last week. The inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 35200 tons, a decrease of 4900 tons from last week.
In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market has remained relatively stable, with the mainstream closing reference at 6860-6950 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of propylene continues to be tight, providing significant support for price trends. However, with the high price of propylene, downstream profit margins have narrowed, which has to some extent suppressed buying enthusiasm. It is expected that the propylene market price will remain stable and slightly strong in the near future.
In terms of demand: In mid November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry continued to rise, and the load level continued to increase. After the load increase in Tianjin Dagu and Jilin Petrochemical in the first ten days, the supply of Zhejiang Petrochemical has also increased recently. The industry’s operating rate has increased by nearly 4% to over 73%.
Market outlook: The domestic acrylonitrile market remains strong in the short term, with continued tight supply in the East China region. However, the overall supply in the North is abundant, and there are also variables in the supply going forward. There is an expectation of easing the tight situation in East China, but market confidence is insufficient, and there may be limited room for further growth.
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