According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak recently (11.18-11.27). As of November 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market is around 16709 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from 16590 yuan/ton on November 18th, with a high point of 16823 yuan/ton during the cycle. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.
With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high and have fallen. As of November 27th, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 Thai baht/kg, a slight increase from 68.10 Thai baht/kg on November 19th; As of November 27th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 17300 yuan/ton, which is higher than the 17000 yuan/ton on November 19th.
Maintain a certain inventory of natural rubber. As of November 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 423500 tons, which was basically the same as the previous period.
Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of November 22, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.3%.
Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are fluctuating at high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has stopped rising in the short term; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.
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