According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of December 22, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1673.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.62% from 1540.25 yuan/ton on December 1.
On the cost side: Crude oil prices have fluctuated downward this week. On the one hand, the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at the December meeting, and it may be postponed until the second quarter of next year. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the weak demand in the international crude oil market and investors’ concerns about the prospect of oversupply in the crude oil market still exist, which is bearish on the oil market.
Supply side: The shipment of refined petroleum coke this week is still acceptable, but the resources of medium and low sulfur petroleum coke are tight, and some have raised prices by 50 yuan/ton. The high price of high sulfur petroleum coke has hindered shipment, and some refineries have slightly lowered prices. Recently, the inventory of imported sponge coke at ports has been low, and resources are tight. Recently, traders of petroleum coke arriving at ports have started pre-sales, and the speed of port clearance is fast, resulting in a continued decline in inventory.
On the demand side: Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the silicon metal market is relatively light, and the market continues to decline with strong market sentiment. The weak downstream demand affects the confidence of industry players. Although the market has lowered production, there is still some shipping pressure in some regions, and the overall market lacks positive support. The demand for high sulfur pellet coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists, but some domestic refineries have stopped supplying petroleum coke to the silicon carbide market, and currently mainly purchase imported pellet coke.
Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has continued to rise with good transactions, mainly due to the continuous rise in the raw material petroleum coke market, as well as the slight reduction in production by some enterprises in Hebei due to environmental protection policies, resulting in a slight decrease in market supply.
The overall trend of electrolytic aluminum market has declined this week, with downstream customers entering a low demand season for aluminum in December. Coupled with the downward trend of alumina prices and the cancellation of export tax rebate policies, the operating rate of aluminum factories has declined, and the supply and demand in domestic and foreign markets have weakened. The aluminum market has also declined, with downstream aluminum using carbon as the main demand for petroleum coke market.
Market forecast: Currently, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement of petroleum coke has decreased compared to the previous period, which has limited support for the petroleum coke market. However, the inventory of petroleum coke in local refineries is currently low, and it is expected that the price of petroleum coke will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the near future.
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