In December 2024, the price of nylon filament first rose and then fell along with the raw materials. In the first half of the month, the price of pure benzene rose, and the supply of caprolactam in the market decreased. Coupled with the continuous production of slicing manufacturers, market confidence was boosted. The weekly closing price of caprolactam by Sinopec slightly increased, and the cost side support was relatively strong. However, due to the lack of significant improvement in demand, the actual transaction volume on the market was limited, and the market price of nylon filament was adjusted and operated after a narrow increase driven by the rise in cost. In the second half of the year, the price of pure benzene showed a significant decline, while the inventory of caprolactam in the market increased. Sinopec’s weekly closing price of caprolactam was significantly reduced, and the PA6 chip high-speed spinning chip market continued to decline, with a lack of cost support. As the end of the year approached, downstream factories had insufficient order volume, and most of them had plans to reduce production and vacation in advance. Their enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials was not high. In addition, the decline in raw material prices intensified the bearish mentality of the industry, and the demand side showed signs of fatigue. Under the dual negative factors, the price of nylon filament market was under pressure and fell. Overall, the raw material market prices continue to bottom out, and there is a certain degree of risk aversion in downstream markets. There is currently no positive news to support the market, and the price center of the nylon filament market has shifted downwards.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of nylon filament in December 2024 followed the rise and then fall of raw materials, with a significant overall decline. As of December 30, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was quoted at 17080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton or 1.27% from the beginning of the month; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.51%.
Raw materials continue to decline
Upstream pure benzene first rose and then fell, while the cost of the caprolactam market remained high. Within the month, the supply of caprolactam market was relatively abundant, and downstream demand did not follow up as expected. The trading atmosphere in the market was weak, and the overall caprolactam market showed weakness. In terms of settlement price, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam settled at 11660 yuan/ton in December (liquid premium product accepted for self pickup in June), an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the settlement in November. As of December 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 10903 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.42%. The market for high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips has experienced a significant decline, with prices on the raw material side showing a downward trend, with a monthly decrease of 1.45%.
Supply and demand: In December, the overall supply of nylon filament market increased slightly. The newly added production capacity in the nylon fiber market continued to be released within the month, and the on-site supply gradually increased. The supply side performance was relatively loose, and the nylon filament market started operating at around 8.4% per month. Downstream market demand is limited, and negative factors dominate the market, resulting in a weak downward trend in the price of nylon filament.
2、 Future forecast
Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, there is some support on the cost side, and the supply of caprolactam in the market has slightly recovered. Some sellers have a mentality of holding up prices, and the demand side is expected to gradually carry out pre holiday stocking. It is expected that the caprolactam market will rise slightly next month; In terms of nylon PA6 chips, there is an upward expectation on the cost side, and downstream manufacturers may have the possibility of buying from the bottom to replenish. However, there are still some manufacturers who are bearish on the market after the new year and cautious in their purchases. It is expected that the PA6 chip market will have a weak trend next month. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of nylon filament raw materials will fluctuate next month, with limited cost support.
Supply side: As the Spring Festival approaches, various nylon filament manufacturers may gradually reduce production and have a holiday in mid to late January, resulting in a significant decrease in on-site supply. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of nylon filament in the market will decrease next month.
On the demand side: The demand in the terminal market is light, coupled with the end of the year, downstream factories are in the final stage, and their enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. Most downstream manufacturers plan to shut down and take a vacation in mid January, and the demand may significantly decrease. Therefore, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side in the nylon filament market next month will be weak.
Overall, the market price of raw material caprolactam may rise narrowly, while the market price of PA6 chips may decline. The cost side trend is inconsistent, and there is a possibility of a decrease in on-site supply. However, the downstream market order volume is insufficient, and the willingness to replenish is weak, making it difficult for the demand side to have positive support. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market price will mainly decline next month.
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