According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 30th to January 6th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 10800 yuan/ton to 11762 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 8.91% during the cycle. This week, the butadiene market continued to rise, and the available supply of goods in the spot market was generally tight. Holders of goods had a strong willingness to raise prices, and the spot market quotation was overall upward. Boosted by this news, spot market offers generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream high-level receiving capacity gradually declines. As the Spring Festival approaches, some pre holiday purchasing demand has been released downstream, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. Sinopec has raised prices twice in a row this week, currently at 12000 yuan/ton. As of January 6th, the delivery price to Shandong region is 12100 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains positive. As of January 3rd, international crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.96 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $76.51 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 10900 yuan/ton as of the 23rd, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 10500 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 14900 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the same period last week. Currently, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber plant construction is basically stable, and as of the end of the month, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber construction is around 70%. As of January 6th, the mainstream market price for butadiene styrene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 14750-15050 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: In terms of supply, the butadiene market has been tight in the near future, with demand approaching the Spring Festival and downstream intentions to replenish inventory, resulting in good market demand performance. Overall, the performance of the butadiene market is relatively strong, and it is expected that there will still be some upward space in the future.
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