According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, 2024, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 660 yuan/ton or 6.88% compared to the reference price of 9450 yuan/ton for n-butanol on January 1, 2024.
From the annual trend chart of the cyclohexanone market, it can be seen that in the first half of the year (January June 2024), the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong region showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the market reached its highest point of the year in the middle of the year. In the second half of the year (July December 2024), the cyclohexanone market experienced a high-level decline, and the market price center continued to explore downward until it fell to a low level, and then began to slightly recover in December. However, the sustained warming force was not strong, and the overall decline in the cyclohexanone market came to an end.
Let’s take a look at the specific performance of the cyclohexanone market in 2024:
In the first quarter, the cyclohexanone market operated in a “first up, then down” pattern, with a 2.31% increase in the first quarter.
Market influencing factors: In January and February, the market for cyclohexanone raw material pure benzene rose, and the cost side formed a good support for cyclohexanone. Downstream on-demand procurement, with cost fluctuations, the cyclohexanone market is gradually rising. At the end of February to March, the raw material pure benzene market weakened, providing weaker cost support for cyclohexanone. The market sentiment for cyclohexanone in the market gradually increased, downstream procurement was light, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market declined.
In the second quarter, the domestic cyclohexanone market as a whole showed a steady upward trend. The focus of the cyclohexanone market continues to move upwards, with market prices breaking through the 10000 yuan mark. On June 30th, the cyclohexanone market price reference was 10075 yuan/ton, reaching a new high for the year, with a 4.20% increase in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated and rose overall, with a growth rate of 6.61%.
Market influencing factors: In April, downstream demand for cyclohexanone was average, with ample spot supply in the market. High priced shipments were hindered, and supply and demand transmission was slow. However, the support from the raw material cost side strengthened, and the market decline was relatively low under cost support. Market consolidation was the main focus in April.
From May to June, the cyclohexanone market continued to rise and operate, with high volatility in the raw material pure benzene market, putting pressure on cyclohexanone costs. The low prices in the cyclohexanone market decreased, and downstream users concentrated on purchasing, resulting in smooth supply and demand transmission and a continuous upward shift in market focus.
In the third quarter, the cyclohexanone market continued to decline. The support for the cyclohexanone market is insufficient, and the market center continues to decline, falling to the level at the beginning of the year, with a decline of 6.34% in the third quarter.
Market influencing factors: From July to September, the raw material pure benzene market fluctuated and weakened, and the cost side provided loose support for cyclohexanone. The downstream demand for cyclohexanone was average, and high price follow-up was weak. New facilities were put into operation in some areas, and the supply side of cyclohexanone increased, resulting in slow supply and demand transmission. Under negative pressure, the cyclohexanone market price gradually approached a low level. On September 30th, the cyclohexanone market price reference was 9400-9500 yuan/ton.
In the fourth quarter, the decline in the cyclohexanone market did not stop. Negative sentiment continues to suppress the market, and the focus of cyclohexanone negotiations continues to shift downwards. On November 12th, the cyclohexanone market fell to a low point for the whole year, with a reference of 8400 yuan/ton. Compared with the high point of the year, the amplitude reached 16.42%. After reaching a low point, the cyclohexanone market finally experienced a brief low-level rebound, with a slight recovery in market conditions. However, effective support was insufficient. Half a month later, the cyclohexanone market weakened again and ended in a downward trend.
It can be seen that the market trend of cyclohexanone is closely related to the impact of supply, demand, and other aspects. In the first half of 2024, the two upward driving forces of the cyclohexanone market were consistent, both related to the tight supply and demand and cost support. In the second half of 2024, the cyclohexanone market experienced two consecutive downturns due to similar factors, including a significant release of production capacity, increased supply, and weak demand that could not support high prices.
Let’s take a look at how the cyclohexanone market will develop in 2025?
In terms of production capacity: In 2023, China’s cyclohexanone production capacity will be 9.82 million tons. In 2024, new production capacity of cyclohexanone in China will continue to be released, with an annual increase of approximately 1.1 million tons. In 2024, the total production capacity of cyclohexanone in China will reach 10.92 million tons.
Supply side: From the supply side, as a chemical intermediate, cyclohexanone will have additional production capacity of cyclohexanone caprolactam or adipic acid in 2024. Although both are supporting facilities, according to the planning situation, theoretically, the new cyclohexanone production capacity will still be greater than the downstream supporting capacity. Therefore, it is expected that by 2025, the overall supply of cyclohexanone will continue to increase, and the market will inevitably face a situation of oversupply.
In terms of demand: It is expected that the downstream supporting equipment for cyclohexanone, caprolactam, will expand production by 2025, but some of the newly added capacity will be integrated with cyclohexanone production. Therefore, the increase in demand for cyclohexanone downstream outsourcing may narrow, and coupled with the significant expansion of downstream production capacity, the overall capacity growth rate will decrease in the future. Therefore, from the perspective of demand, although the demand for cyclohexanone will increase in 2025, the growth rate of demand will not be as fast as the growth rate of supply. Therefore, the game between supply and demand in the cyclohexanone market will continue in 2025.
Production situation: The annual capacity utilization rate of cyclohexanone in 2023 is 74.6%, with an annual output of approximately 6.4 million tons. In 2024, the production capacity of cyclohexanone was expanded, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 78.8%, an increase of 4 percentage points in capacity utilization rate. As a result, the output also increased. The cyclohexanone production in 2024 was about 7.66 million tons, an increase of 19.6% compared to 2023.
It is expected that the production of cyclohexanone will increase narrowly in 2025, with an overall increase smaller than in 2024. On the one hand, the production capacity of cyclohexanone will continue to be released in 2025, and the expansion of production capacity will drive an increase in market output. However, due to the significant contraction of profit in the cyclohexanone market in 2024, although the production capacity will increase in 2025, under the cost pressure of some factories, the actual capacity utilization rate of cyclohexanone may not have a significant increase. Therefore, it is expected that the production of cyclohexanone will only increase slightly in 2025.
Downstream consumption structure: The overall downstream consumption structure of cyclohexanone in China will not change significantly in 2024. Caprolactam is still the main downstream product of cyclohexanone, accounting for about 64.37% of the demand. The second ranked product is adipic acid, accounting for about 25.87% of the demand. The proportion of other downstream products is relatively limited, with ortho phenylphenol accounting for 5% and paint and ink accounting for 4.39%.
Import volume situation: In 2018, the domestic import volume of cyclohexanone was 69000 tons, which decreased to 93000 tons in 2019. In recent years, with the continuous construction of domestic cyclohexanone facilities and the expansion of production capacity, the dependence on imported cyclohexanone has been decreasing year by year, and the import volume of cyclohexanone has dropped to around 100 tons. From January to November 2024, the import volume of cyclohexanone was only 196 tons. China has basically become a net exporter of cyclohexanone. It is expected that the import volume of cyclohexanone in China will continue to decrease by 2025, and the impact on the market will also be limited.
Export volume situation: From 2018 to 2024, China’s cyclohexanone export volume has basically achieved year-on-year growth. From January to November 2024, China’s cyclohexanone export volume was 73400 tons, an increase of 37.8% compared to last year. It is expected that the export volume of cyclohexanone in China will continue to grow in the coming years. With the stable growth of China’s cyclohexanone production capacity and supply side, the domestic cyclohexanone market is already in a surplus situation. In addition, with the continuous innovation of domestic cyclohexanone production processes, the production cost of cyclohexanone may continue to decrease, making it more cost-effective in the international field. In 2024, Sumitomo Japan has shut down its 100000 ton cyclohexanone plant, and it is expected that the demand for cyclohexanone in some regions of Japan will be imported. Therefore, overall, there may be stable growth expectations for the future export volume of cyclohexanone in China.
summary
Looking back at 2024, the market trend of cyclohexanone is closely related to raw material costs and supply and demand relationships. It is expected that by 2025, the overall spot supply of cyclohexanone market will still be abundant, with supply side pressure remaining, and the trend of raw material costs will be fluctuating at a high level. The operating rate of the downstream main demand caprolactam market will be in the 5th to 6th level in 2024. While increasing production capacity, more attention should be paid to the operating situation of downstream products in 2025. The downstream chemical fiber market is mostly equipped with cyclohexanone equipment, and the solvent market has little demand for cyclohexanone. It is expected that the downstream chemical fiber and solvent fields will still mainly focus on essential procurement. Overall, by 2025, the supply and demand sides of the cyclohexanone market will be mostly in a fluctuating state, with the market operating mainly in a wide range of fluctuations.
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