According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was mainly consolidated in mid January, with most brand products experiencing narrow price changes. As of January 15th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7608.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.50% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.
Price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Recently, international crude oil prices have risen. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts, providing favorable support for crude oil supply. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the oil market. Overall, the standardization rate of PP upstream remains positive. In the early stage, the propylene sector was boosted by domestic and foreign markets, coupled with an increase in midstream stocking operations. However, in recent days, trading has cooled down and prices have fallen sharply. Overall, the PP raw material market in mid January showed more gains than losses, and the cost side support was still relatively strong.
Supply side:
In the month, PP enterprises in China resumed work and production, and the overall load level remained stable with a slight increase. In the early stage, the load of enterprises such as Sino Korean Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical gradually returned, and overall, the industry’s overall load increased by about 0.5% to 79%. The average weekly production in China is around 740000 tons, with a slight increase in PP shipments. Although the production of some newly put into operation devices is not yet stable, the supply is still abundant. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Recently, the demand for PP has shifted towards weak rigid demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice has decreased, and the consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined. Terminal enterprises have a low willingness to hold positions and tend to operate in the short term. And as the holidays gradually enter, the load decreases. In addition, with the trend of year-end fund withdrawal in the market, overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.
Future forecast
In January, the domestic PP market prices in China remained stable with slight declines. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The industry supply has slightly increased. According to consumer feedback, as the Spring Festival approaches, businesses are gradually withdrawing from the market, and pre holiday stocking is gradually being completed. However, there is a lack of purchasing power in the market. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will continue to maintain a stable game pattern between costs and demand, with a relatively stable trend.
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