Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China was generally stable and operating before the Spring Festival, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of January 21st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16483.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.20% compared to January 1st.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: Currently, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have a stable pattern of load absorption at the beginning of the month, with very limited changes. The industry average operating rate remains stable at 77%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply of goods is still abundant. The supply-demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged. The inventory position is relatively high, manufacturers are cautious in pricing, and the market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant recovery of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the bulls gradually ran out in early January, and downstream demand remained stable. After the upward movement of bisphenol A prices was blocked, it entered a consolidation market. However, the sharp rise in upstream crude oil prices has boosted the confidence of industry players. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.
On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. At the end of last year, some export orders were placed in advance in the market, and in January, the overall trend returned to weak rigid demand procurement, with a more cautious attitude among industry players. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, the pre holiday stocking is basically completed, and some downstream factories are on holiday. The load on end enterprises has declined, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market experienced fluctuations and consolidation before the Spring Festival holiday. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, providing sufficient support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. Downstream pre holiday stocking has basically ended, and businesses are gradually taking holidays and delisting. PC is expected to return to a calm pre holiday market, with a focus on consolidation and operation.
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