Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 22, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the beginning of the week.
After taking office, Trump’s previous sanctions may be overturned, and his policies such as increasing US crude oil production, imposing tariffs, and trade risks tend to be bearish on oil prices, leading to a short-term pullback in crude oil prices. As of January 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.83 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.29 per barrel.
The export volume of PTA in December 2024 was 258000 tons, a decrease of 174000 tons from November and a 40% decrease compared to the previous month. The main reason is that the commissioning of new PTA facilities abroad has led to a decrease in demand for Chinese PTA from abroad. Türkiye is China’s largest export customer. In 2024, China will export 799000 tons of PTA to Türkiye, accounting for 18% of China’s total exports. In 2025, the design capacity of Türkiye’s new PTA plant will be 1.5 million tons, and the supply increase will squeeze the export market share of China’s PTA.
The maintenance of downstream polyester units continues to advance, and some individual units have also been opened. Overall, the polyester load continues to decrease to around 81%. According to statistics, it is expected that the maintenance loss of polyester in January and February will be 1.32 million tons, with polyester production capacity accounting for 15.4%. The terminal stocking phase has ended, and the polyester production will be reduced near the Spring Festival holiday. There is still room for further reduction.
Business analysts predict that the decline in crude oil and poor PTA exports will lead to a higher than expected accumulation of PTA inventory. In addition, the low purchasing enthusiasm of the demand side, combined with various negative factors, is expected to result in a weak adjustment of PTA market before the Spring Festival.
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