Under cost leadership, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions this week (February 10-14) was 7326 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from the beginning of the week.
At the beginning of the week, the PX market on the raw material side saw a slight decrease in the negative load of the 4 million ton PX plant in East China, and a 400000 ton PX plant in South Korea was shut down, which strengthened the expectation of a tightening of the PX supply and demand pattern. The strong rise in PX has strengthened the cost support for polyester staple fibers. But with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventories, in addition to signals from the Federal Reserve that the pace of macro interest rate cuts has slowed down, and the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions, international oil prices have declined. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.02 per barrel, providing downward support for PTA costs.
The overall trend of the domestic PTA market this week is weak, with the current average PTA market price in East China at 5084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the week. In terms of supply, the maintenance of a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Hainan has boosted the PTA spot market, with an industry operating rate of around 83%. In February, another 2.5 million plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the PTA operating rate is expected to decline. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream polyester load has decreased significantly, resulting in seasonal accumulation of PTA supply and demand. Social inventory is expected to reach new highs, and the impact of plant maintenance on PTA supply is limited.
In addition, the increase in supply has led to a shortage of drive for polyester staple fibers. This week, there were many restarts of polyester staple fiber equipment, and the operating load rate gradually increased to 70%. In terms of demand, the downstream spinning industry has shown an upward trend in production, with the polyester yarn industry experiencing a slow increase in production to 50%. The terminal weaving market is gradually recovering and recovering after the holiday. Currently, the operating rate of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is over 52%, but there are few new orders. Manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventory before the holiday and are digesting the previous raw material inventory. In the short term, the purchasing willingness is not strong, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.
Analysts from the business community believe that after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, with the return of workers to their posts, factories in the terminal textile industry are more willing to make up the stock in the downstream, and the demand for polyester staple fiber is improved. But in the crude oil market, there is a possibility of easing the geopolitical situation, and prices may run weakly. Moreover, the accumulated inventory pressure of PTA in February is still relatively high, and the maintenance of some PTA factory facilities has limited impact on spot supply. The overall supply of goods is still abundant, and high inventory still suppresses PTA prices, weakening the cost support of polyester staple fibers. Therefore, in the short term, there is still downward pressure on the price of polyester staple fibers.
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