According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 31 to April 7, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11000 yuan/ton to 10833.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.52% during the period. This cycle, the domestic butadiene market showed a trend of first rising and then falling within the week, with an overall downward trend. As the holiday approaches, some downstream stocks will replenish their positions after falling. At the beginning of the week, market transactions were relatively concentrated. With some auction sources selling at a premium, the market trend has significantly shifted upwards. Although the supply side prices remained firm, the high end offers and transactions in the later part of the week were somewhat deadlocked. At the same time, the news of the US tariffs affected the futures market, causing downstream buyers to be cautious. After short-term fluctuations in the market, prices significantly declined on Thursday afternoon. As of April 7th, the delivery price in Shandong region is 10900 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: International crude oil futures plummeted on April 4th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.99 per barrel, a decrease of $4.96 or 7.4%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.58 per barrel, a decrease of $4.56 or 6.5%. Affected by US tariff policies, oil prices have plummeted for two consecutive trading days, with WTI experiencing a cumulative drop of nearly $10. Investors are concerned about the risk of economic recession caused by the escalation of global trade conflicts. According to crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society, based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long term. The supply-demand balance may be disrupted and enter the process of rebalancing again. In the short term, given that countries are attempting to negotiate lower tariffs or impose retaliatory tariffs, tariffs may change and oil prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 11200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: The styrene butadiene rubber market has been operating weakly during this cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 3rd, the styrene butadiene rubber market in the northwest region has slightly declined by around 100 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream inquiries are cautious, and market transactions are flat. The mainstream price of Jihua 1502 is 13900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: This weekend, crude oil prices will significantly decline, and the spot market will be dragged down and prices will follow suit. There are many negative factors on the cost side. In terms of supply, there have been few maintenance visits to butadiene enterprises recently, and the subsequent arrival situation at the port is good. The market expects a good supply of butadiene, but the supply side is relatively empty. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market on the demand side has weakened, and the overall operating rate has decreased, resulting in overall demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, the supply and demand performance of the butadiene market is bearish, and it is expected to be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |