According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (4.14-4.18), with an average market price of 261640 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 256950 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 1.79%.
On the supply side, the Wa State of Myanmar officially announced the process for obtaining mining and exploration permits at the end of February. Based on the actual situation, the resumption of production in its mining area may require a preparation period of three months. This situation may lead to a reduction in the amount of tin ore imported from Myanmar in April. At the same time, domestic tin concentrate processing fees are showing a fluctuating downward trend. Taking into account various factors, it may indicate that the domestic tin ore supply is expected to tighten. Although there is expected to be an increase in the supply of waste tin, the scale of the increase is constrained by multiple factors such as the waste tin recycling system and raw material quality, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the current tight supply situation. However, this change may lead to an increase in China’s production of recycled tin in April. In addition, the inventory of refined tin in China showed a downward trend in April.
On the demand side, in April, the production capacity and vitality of China’s tin and solder industry increased, and the operating rate showed an upward trend; The import and export trade scale of China’s welding strip industry in April may shrink, and the import and export volume is expected to decrease; The production pace of China’s tinplate industry may slow down in April, and the production volume may decline.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term trend of tin price reduction has been delayed, and the news has affected consumption. After the bottom of the oscillation, the range fluctuates.
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