According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 18th, the price of lead 1 # was 16900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the lead price of 16915 yuan/ton on April 14th.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices experienced a slight decline due to weak consolidation within the range.
Raw material end
The bullish expectations of recyclers continue to ferment, and the current inventory of recycled lead raw materials is still significantly lower than the historical average level of the same period. The reason behind this is that the amount of discarded lead-acid batteries is showing a decreasing trend, coupled with intensified competition in recycling channels, leading to a weakened supply elasticity in the waste battery market. Prices are easily affected by short-term supply-demand mismatches and maintain a pattern of easy rise but difficult fall.
supply end
In April, domestic northern mines were still in the stage of capacity ramp up. Currently, the raw material inventory of smelters remains relatively abundant, and the overall supply system of the mining end is running smoothly without significant fluctuations. The weekly processing fee index for domestic lead concentrate remained unchanged from last week, and there was no significant change in the profit transmission mechanism at the mining end. Regenerated lead smelting enterprises are facing significant cost inversion pressure, squeezed by high raw material procurement costs and weak downstream consumption. It is expected that the number of production reduction enterprises will further increase next week, and there is a downward risk in the industry’s capacity utilization rate.
demand side
The May Day holiday is approaching, and downstream battery production companies have gradually launched raw material inventory and stocking plans based on production linkage and raw material supply assurance considerations. Although the current procurement behavior has not yet shown a trend of concentrated volume, driven by the expected release of downstream stage replenishment demand, the market trading atmosphere is transitioning from cautious observation to a moderate recovery, and the overall activity is expected to steadily increase during the pre holiday window period.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that in the short term, the central price of lead will show a moderate upward trend in the game of macroeconomic sentiment disturbance and fundamental support, with the upward range mainly consisting of narrow range fluctuations.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |