According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and hydrogen fluoride has remained stable this month, with some enterprises experiencing slight increases. As of December 26th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: The price of fluorite raw material has decreased this month. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3647.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.75% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

On the demand side, the domestic refrigerant market saw an increase in December. Some varieties have seen a significant increase in price, while demand remains strong. However, as the end of the year approaches, other downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm and mainly execute previous orders, with some devices operating at reduced loads. Maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Market forecast: The domestic hydrogen fluoride market will start operating at 55.9% in December, a decrease of 4.2% compared to November. As the end of the year approaches, although the downstream refrigerant market demand is good, the consumption of other downstream products has decreased. Overall, the demand is good, and it is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will fluctuate and remain stable next month. More attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises, and there is a possibility of market recovery after the year.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On December 25th, the average market price was 7511.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market continues to consolidate weakly, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange is average. International crude oil futures rose, while the price of pure benzene continued to decline slightly in foreign trading. The confidence in the pure benzene market is average. The inventory of ports in East China is accumulating, and prices continue to be weak. Shandong’s local refining transactions are sluggish, and market prices have been lowered. It is expected that the pure benzene market will be weak and volatile in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate weakly at the end of December. As of December 19th, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 77400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% from the same period last month at 78200 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 79800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2% from 80800 yuan/ton in the same period last month.

Suspension of destocking, weakening of fundamental margins

Since September, lithium carbonate has experienced continuous destocking due to stronger demand and reduced production in salt lakes. By the end of the year, the significant increase in pyroxene, mica, and recycling offset the reduction in salt lakes. At the same time, factories were operating at full capacity, and lithium carbonate was restocked, leading to a weakening of the fundamental margin.

Downstream demand maintains steady growth

The expected production of lithium iron phosphate remains at a high level, and considering the early demand for some orders before the Spring Festival, the material factory’s production capacity has increased. The policy effect of stabilizing national economic growth in the field of new energy vehicle power batteries continues to emerge, coupled with the continuation of local car purchase subsidies, promotional activities, and other measures, automobile consumption is expected to continue to grow in the fourth quarter.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the current total inventory of lithium carbonate is high and has begun to accumulate again, but the consumer situation is improving. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the short term, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of December 22, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1673.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.62% from 1540.25 yuan/ton on December 1.

On the cost side: Crude oil prices have fluctuated downward this week. On the one hand, the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at the December meeting, and it may be postponed until the second quarter of next year. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the weak demand in the international crude oil market and investors’ concerns about the prospect of oversupply in the crude oil market still exist, which is bearish on the oil market.

Supply side: The shipment of refined petroleum coke this week is still acceptable, but the resources of medium and low sulfur petroleum coke are tight, and some have raised prices by 50 yuan/ton. The high price of high sulfur petroleum coke has hindered shipment, and some refineries have slightly lowered prices. Recently, the inventory of imported sponge coke at ports has been low, and resources are tight. Recently, traders of petroleum coke arriving at ports have started pre-sales, and the speed of port clearance is fast, resulting in a continued decline in inventory.

On the demand side: Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the silicon metal market is relatively light, and the market continues to decline with strong market sentiment. The weak downstream demand affects the confidence of industry players. Although the market has lowered production, there is still some shipping pressure in some regions, and the overall market lacks positive support. The demand for high sulfur pellet coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists, but some domestic refineries have stopped supplying petroleum coke to the silicon carbide market, and currently mainly purchase imported pellet coke.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has continued to rise with good transactions, mainly due to the continuous rise in the raw material petroleum coke market, as well as the slight reduction in production by some enterprises in Hebei due to environmental protection policies, resulting in a slight decrease in market supply.

The overall trend of electrolytic aluminum market has declined this week, with downstream customers entering a low demand season for aluminum in December. Coupled with the downward trend of alumina prices and the cancellation of export tax rebate policies, the operating rate of aluminum factories has declined, and the supply and demand in domestic and foreign markets have weakened. The aluminum market has also declined, with downstream aluminum using carbon as the main demand for petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement of petroleum coke has decreased compared to the previous period, which has limited support for the petroleum coke market. However, the inventory of petroleum coke in local refineries is currently low, and it is expected that the price of petroleum coke will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the near future.

Recently, under the boost of costs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has shown a slight increase. As of December 22, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7168 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from December 15.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine has prompted the United States to announce a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at its December meeting and may postpone it until the second quarter of next year, which is positive news for international oil prices. However, the weak demand in the international crude oil market and investors’ concerns about the prospect of oversupply in the crude oil market still exist, which is bearish for the oil market. On December 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.38 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.88 per barrel.

The domestic PTA spot market has slightly increased, with an average price of 4809 yuan/ton in the East China PTA market as of December 22, up 2.75% from December 9. In the second half of November, the PTA pre maintenance equipment will resume operation, but with the current processing fees, there will be less maintenance of the PTA equipment. Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th; Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons will undergo maintenance on December 12th. Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton PTA new plant began trial operation on December 18th. The current industry production is around 86%, and the overall supply in December is relatively loose.

The textile industry continues the off-season, and downstream yarn factories maintain on-demand procurement. The inventory level of raw materials for terminal textile enterprises is not high, and there is still some time before the Spring Festival. This round of replenishment is expected to be mostly for pre year orders, and there is still room for replenishment in the later period. In addition, domestic macro policies have released a series of positive signals, including promoting domestic demand, and it has been heard that export orders have performed well.

According to analysis by Shengyi Society, the market’s expectation for seasonal accumulation of crude oil inventories remains strong, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, which continues to exert pressure on rising oil prices. International crude oil may operate weakly. With the investment of new production capacity, PTA production in December may reach a new high for the year, and the supply-demand contradiction of PTA is difficult to alleviate. The fundamentals are difficult to be optimistic, and support for short fiber costs is weakened. There has been no significant increase in downstream terminal orders, and the sustainability of demand side replenishment needs to be monitored. Overall, the price of polyester staple fibers may decline.