Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 22, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the beginning of the week.

After taking office, Trump’s previous sanctions may be overturned, and his policies such as increasing US crude oil production, imposing tariffs, and trade risks tend to be bearish on oil prices, leading to a short-term pullback in crude oil prices. As of January 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.83 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.29 per barrel.

The export volume of PTA in December 2024 was 258000 tons, a decrease of 174000 tons from November and a 40% decrease compared to the previous month. The main reason is that the commissioning of new PTA facilities abroad has led to a decrease in demand for Chinese PTA from abroad. Türkiye is China’s largest export customer. In 2024, China will export 799000 tons of PTA to Türkiye, accounting for 18% of China’s total exports. In 2025, the design capacity of Türkiye’s new PTA plant will be 1.5 million tons, and the supply increase will squeeze the export market share of China’s PTA.

The maintenance of downstream polyester units continues to advance, and some individual units have also been opened. Overall, the polyester load continues to decrease to around 81%. According to statistics, it is expected that the maintenance loss of polyester in January and February will be 1.32 million tons, with polyester production capacity accounting for 15.4%. The terminal stocking phase has ended, and the polyester production will be reduced near the Spring Festival holiday. There is still room for further reduction.

Business analysts predict that the decline in crude oil and poor PTA exports will lead to a higher than expected accumulation of PTA inventory. In addition, the low purchasing enthusiasm of the demand side, combined with various negative factors, is expected to result in a weak adjustment of PTA market before the Spring Festival.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China was generally stable and operating before the Spring Festival, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of January 21st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16483.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.20% compared to January 1st.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Currently, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have a stable pattern of load absorption at the beginning of the month, with very limited changes. The industry average operating rate remains stable at 77%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply of goods is still abundant. The supply-demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged. The inventory position is relatively high, manufacturers are cautious in pricing, and the market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant recovery of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the bulls gradually ran out in early January, and downstream demand remained stable. After the upward movement of bisphenol A prices was blocked, it entered a consolidation market. However, the sharp rise in upstream crude oil prices has boosted the confidence of industry players. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. At the end of last year, some export orders were placed in advance in the market, and in January, the overall trend returned to weak rigid demand procurement, with a more cautious attitude among industry players. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, the pre holiday stocking is basically completed, and some downstream factories are on holiday. The load on end enterprises has declined, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market experienced fluctuations and consolidation before the Spring Festival holiday. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, providing sufficient support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. Downstream pre holiday stocking has basically ended, and businesses are gradually taking holidays and delisting. PC is expected to return to a calm pre holiday market, with a focus on consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 19th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5623.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 5623.33 yuan/ton on January 13th, and a decrease of 2.20% compared to the previous month. The main reason is that there is currently no fluctuation in the supply capacity of the supplier, and downstream demand follows up accordingly. The market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price of ethyl acetate remains stable.

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate plant has been running smoothly, with quiet news on the market. The prices of raw materials are mostly stable, with average cost support. Downstream production has weakened, and entry into the market has been followed up on demand. The supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced, and the ethyl acetate market is adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with price trends stabilizing.

In the future, there is no fluctuation in the ethyl acetate plant, and the market supply of goods remains stable. Downstream suppliers will replenish as needed before the holiday, and the market transaction atmosphere is still good. The news is quiet, and it is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain stable in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the supplier plant and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has remained stable this week, with an average price of 14900 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market has remained stable this week. Internationally, multinational titanium dioxide manufacturer Venator has announced a mandatory price increase of 300 euros/ton for all titanium dioxide pigments and performance additive products sold in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East (EMEA) starting from February 1, 2025. On the domestic front, the titanium dioxide market is generally stable, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and some companies conducting routine maintenance. Some models have tight supply, and manufacturers mainly ship orders on hand. Downstream enterprises and distributors have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards purchasing according to demand in the market. The price of titanium ore on the raw materials is high, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide is significant, resulting in strong market quotations. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has increased. The supply of raw ore in the Panxi region has significantly decreased, and the cost pressure on beneficiation plants is high, resulting in a strong upward trend in titanium ore prices. But downstream cost pressure is relatively high, on-site inquiries are average, and actual orders are mostly cautiously observed, with rigid procurement being the main focus. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1420-1450 yuan/ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 1990-2080 yuan/ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2200-2300 yuan/ton. In the short term, the upstream and downstream markets will mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach, and titanium ore quotations will remain firm. Specific transaction prices will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s titanium dioxide analyst believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market will remain stable this week. The supply of raw titanium ore is tight, and prices continue to rise. The price of sulfuric acid is consolidating at a high level. International titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued letters to raise prices, and the positive sentiment in the titanium dioxide market has increased. In the short term, the market volatility is still limited, and the domestic titanium dioxide market remains relatively stable.

Market Overview: This week, due to the combination of supply variables and the difficulty of improving the shortage situation in the short term, multiple factors such as manufacturers’ intention to raise prices and push up prices have worked together to continue the upward trend in the acrylonitrile market. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 11000-11200 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 10900-11100 yuan/ton.

Supply shortage: In the fourth quarter of 2024, major factories in East China gradually reduced their equipment load, and the region remained in a state of shortage. Due to an unexpected shutdown, a unit in Shandong Lihua Yi has maintained 50% operation, and there is a full shutdown maintenance plan in February, which has further exacerbated the already tight supply situation. Coupled with the delay in the production of the new Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plant, the company’s inventory remains low, and currently mainly relies on contract supply, with a continuous shortage of spot resources, and the shortage situation is difficult to improve in the short term.

Increased demand: This week, the downstream ABS production capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile was 70.50%, slightly lower than last week. However, in 2025, the country announced the continued implementation of the old for new subsidy activity for automotive and household appliances, stimulating the production willingness of ABS market manufacturers. As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers have a high enthusiasm for stocking up, and demand has slightly increased.

Market forecast: Currently, the market supply increment is still limited in the short term, with main factories maintaining contract supply as the mainstay, and spot resources remaining scarce. However, with the recent rapid rise in prices, downstream users have also shown resistance. As the Spring Festival approaches, some small and medium-sized downstream factories also have plans to shut down and take a holiday. It is expected that the atmosphere for inquiries will decrease next week, and the market’s potential for further growth may be limited.