According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 18, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7283 yuan/ton. Compared with February 14 (reference price of n-butanol is 7323 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%.

Entering this week, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, has experienced a narrow decline. At the beginning of the week, some n-butanol factories in Shandong province narrowly reduced the price of n-butanol by about 20-50 yuan/ton. As of February 18th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

On the demand side: At the beginning of the week, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market was light, and the demand inquiry performance was poor. Some n-butanol factories offered discounts for shipments, and downstream users made purchases at low prices. The overall market focus slightly shifted downwards.

On the supply side: Currently, due to cautious demand, some n-butanol factories are facing certain supply pressure on the overall supply side to ensure low inventory levels, and the market support provided by the supply side is limited.

In terms of cost: As we enter this week, the upstream raw material propylene market has experienced a slight decline overall. The support for n-butanol on the cost side has weakened. On February 18th, the reference price of propylene was 6835.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% compared to February 14th (6878 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the atmosphere of on-site negotiations for n-butanol is relatively low, and the mentality of industry players is average. The transmission of supply and demand has slowed down. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly consolidate and operate after a slight decline, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1728 yuan/ton, which is 2.57% higher than the reference average price of 1685 yuan/ton on February 8th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have continued to rise. As of February 14th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1650-1710 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1720 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1720 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1710 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1790 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the supply of urea in the market has been stable, and the market demand has increased. On the supply side, with the increase in demand this week, the supply of urea in the market has decreased, and some regions are experiencing tight supply. In terms of demand, it is currently the peak season for spring plowing, with an increase in agricultural demand and a positive transaction volume in the urea market.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been operating strongly recently. After the holiday, the trading volume of urea market increased, and the shipment of enterprises was smooth. At present, the market has a strong bullish sentiment and there is some support on the demand side. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will remain stable in the short term, with a focus on the upper middle range.

Under cost leadership, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions this week (February 10-14) was 7326 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from the beginning of the week.

At the beginning of the week, the PX market on the raw material side saw a slight decrease in the negative load of the 4 million ton PX plant in East China, and a 400000 ton PX plant in South Korea was shut down, which strengthened the expectation of a tightening of the PX supply and demand pattern. The strong rise in PX has strengthened the cost support for polyester staple fibers. But with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventories, in addition to signals from the Federal Reserve that the pace of macro interest rate cuts has slowed down, and the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions, international oil prices have declined. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.02 per barrel, providing downward support for PTA costs.

The overall trend of the domestic PTA market this week is weak, with the current average PTA market price in East China at 5084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the week. In terms of supply, the maintenance of a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Hainan has boosted the PTA spot market, with an industry operating rate of around 83%. In February, another 2.5 million plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the PTA operating rate is expected to decline. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream polyester load has decreased significantly, resulting in seasonal accumulation of PTA supply and demand. Social inventory is expected to reach new highs, and the impact of plant maintenance on PTA supply is limited.

In addition, the increase in supply has led to a shortage of drive for polyester staple fibers. This week, there were many restarts of polyester staple fiber equipment, and the operating load rate gradually increased to 70%. In terms of demand, the downstream spinning industry has shown an upward trend in production, with the polyester yarn industry experiencing a slow increase in production to 50%. The terminal weaving market is gradually recovering and recovering after the holiday. Currently, the operating rate of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is over 52%, but there are few new orders. Manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventory before the holiday and are digesting the previous raw material inventory. In the short term, the purchasing willingness is not strong, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Analysts from the business community believe that after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, with the return of workers to their posts, factories in the terminal textile industry are more willing to make up the stock in the downstream, and the demand for polyester staple fiber is improved. But in the crude oil market, there is a possibility of easing the geopolitical situation, and prices may run weakly. Moreover, the accumulated inventory pressure of PTA in February is still relatively high, and the maintenance of some PTA factory facilities has limited impact on spot supply. The overall supply of goods is still abundant, and high inventory still suppresses PTA prices, weakening the cost support of polyester staple fibers. Therefore, in the short term, there is still downward pressure on the price of polyester staple fibers.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market has improved this week, with the main trend being upward. On February 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton. On February 13th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%.

Lido supports sustained high levels of domestic adipic acid market

Starting from February 10th, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid has remained strong, and demand in the terminal industry has recovered. The prices of adipic acid manufacturers have risen, and the market has improved. The average market price has risen to 8500-8700 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 50-100 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in late February, with stable demand in the terminal industry and limited upward potential in the raw material market, the adipic acid market is likely to experience a weak decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of February 12th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4260 yuan/ton. After the holiday, DMF prices have remained stable, with little fluctuation compared to the same period last week.

2、 Market analysis

The stable operation of DMF prices is the main focus. Currently, there is not much downstream demand for DMF, with rigid procurement as the main focus and on-demand replenishment as the main focus. The stable operation of market prices is the main focus. The reference price for DMF spot delivery in Shandong and surrounding areas is 4250-4300 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas it is 4500 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a narrow range of weak operations.