In December, the market of polybutadiene rubber fell first and then stabilized. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of cis polybutadiene rubber was 10580 yuan/ton as of December 30, down 3.73% from 10990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, under the pressure of the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber, the ex factory price of two barrels of oil of cis polybutadiene rubber was lowered, and the market price of cis polybutadiene rubber fell 4.73% within eight days. In the later period, as the price of cis polybutadiene rubber fell sharply, downstream inquiries increased, and the overall market was stable.

Supply side: the commencement of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in December was slightly higher than that in November, and the supply side was under pressure. According to the business agency, the high load or full load production of Shunding devices in Daqing, Sichuan, Maoming, Qixiang, and the restart of early maintenance devices such as Haopu still put pressure on the supply side of Shunding rubber.

Cost: butadiene prices rose sharply in December, while the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 30, the price of butadiene was 7241 yuan/ton, up 13.01% from 6407 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In December, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated, which still supported cis polybutadiene rubber. As of December 30, the price was 12250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from 12220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The monthly high point was 12520 yuan/ton, and the low point was 12160 yuan/ton. The early December coincided with traders and downstream factories preparing goods before the year. The domestic latex market experienced a process of firming up to stabilizing. In the month, the index of substitute rubber increased, and the import rubber continued to increase; In the later period, with the end of Chinese manufacturers’ stock up, the export price of Southeast Asian rubber stabilized until a small drop of two or three hundred yuan per ton. With the arrival of imported rubber from China’s main ports and the accumulation of social inventory, the price of China’s natural rubber market continues to fluctuate, with a slight weakening trend.

Demand side: In December, due to the further liberalization of epidemic prevention, the manufacturing industry in some domestic regions was impacted in the short term, the downstream tire enterprises started to decline, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber became weaker. According to the business community, the construction of all steel tires in Shandong will be less than 60%.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the pressure on the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber is still there, the cost side is higher, but the demand side is weak in the short term. If the demand side does not improve in the future, then cis polybutadiene rubber will continue to run weak in January.

Following the sharp rise of 14.6% in the MIBK market in November, the mainstream price of the domestic market rose from 11633 yuan/ton on November 1 to 13333.3 yuan/ton on December 1. In December, the trend of stability first followed by a sharp rise. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the MIBK market price was 13333.3 yuan/ton on December 1. As of December 29, the market price rose to 15333 yuan/ton, a 15% increase in December.

The domestic operating rate dropped sharply, and the market rose sharply under the tight supply. On December 25, Li Changrong, Zhenjiang, shut down the 50000 t/a MIBK unit. The restart time is uncertain and may take a long time. The total capacity of domestic MIBK is only 125000 tons. Large units were shut down, and the domestic operating rate fell below 40%. The market rose along the trend under tight supply.

The market continues to be strong, and the social inventory is low. Since the short-term maintenance of multiple devices in November, the market supply has remained tight, and the 15000 tons in Zhenyang, Ningbo, were parked for half a month in the first half of the month. However, due to the epidemic situation in the country at the beginning of the month, only a few traders have goods in their hands, and the supply of social products continues to be tight.

Acetone at the raw material end was at a high level in the first ten days, slightly supported by the cost. Taking the acetone market in East China as an example, the negotiated price in East China acetone market has been at a high level of 5900-6000 yuan/ton from December 5 to 15, and the market gradually declined to 5450 yuan/ton in the last ten days. However, throughout the year, the acetone market was at a relatively high level in December, supported by costs.

The orders of the downstream antioxidant industry were stable, but they were mainly in demand at the end of the year. The downstream antioxidant 4020 factory mainly delivers orders, and the factory MIBK directly connects with the antioxidant factory, with limited distribution to the market. At present, the downstream main factories are limited to follow up before New Year’s Day, and small order replenishment is dominant. The short-term MIBK market continues to rise, which is not supported by good profits.

From the perspective of the business community, the supply of MIBK continued to be tight in December, and by the end of the month, the shutdown operation rate of large devices dropped to below 40%, which prompted the MIBK market to continue to rise after the sharp rise in November. However, in the near future, the downstream just needs small order replenishment, and the actual order quantity is limited before New Year’s Day, while the main downstream antioxidant 4020 enterprises still have some stocks, which is slightly resistant to the high priced raw materials, and lacks the motivation to continue to catch up in the short term, The business agency expects that the MIBK market will run stably in the short term, and the negotiation is expected to be 15000 yuan/ton.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the acrylonitrile market in December fell sharply. As of December 26, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9620 yuan/ton, down 8.38% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the start of the acrylonitrile industry declined slightly, but the inventory pressure was still large. In December, the listing price of acrylonitrile enterprises decreased significantly in the early stage and remained stable in the late stage. On the other hand, downstream demand was impacted in the month, and the offer of merchants went down all the way. As of December 26, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile market in East China was 9400~10200 yuan/ton.

According to the business community, in December, some enterprises such as Jilin Petrochemical and Secco reduced the load of acrylonitrile units. In December, the start of acrylonitrile industry declined slightly, but the manufacturer’s inventory pressure was still high.

In December, the price of raw propylene fell, while the cost of acrylonitrile fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the domestic propylene price was 7378 yuan/ton, down 4.06% from 7690 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Near the end of the year, COVID-19 was distributed in many places, and production, logistics and transportation were impacted in the short term. In December, ABS, acrylamide/polyacrylamide and other industries downstream of acrylonitrile started to decline; Acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber industry started to maintain stability, and the demand for acrylonitrile was weaker than in the early stage.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that, on the one hand, the inventory pressure of acrylonitrile is still in the short term, on the other hand, the current demand is weak; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and consolidated in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate has been declining continuously recently. As of December 21, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 525000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.08% compared with the average price of 559000 yuan/ton on December 11. On December 21, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 545000 yuan/ton, down 5.71% compared with the average price of 578000 yuan/ton on December 11.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline in the near future. The price of large lithium salt plants has been slightly adjusted. Some of them have been sold on spot, and they are in a strong mood to support the price. They are also starting to sign a long-term agreement order for next year. However, traders have strong bearish sentiment, so the selling sentiment is heavy, and the transaction price keeps falling.

On the demand side, the downstream Sanyuan and lithium iron plants are not willing to purchase, the market transaction price and purchase price have been reduced, and the downstream and terminal markets are basically in the state of digesting inventory. In addition to the current increase in the spot volume of lithium carbonate, the price continues to weaken in the market where the supply is strong and the demand is weak.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream has declined. At present, the first tier manufacturers of lithium hydroxide mainly export, the second tier manufacturers mainly supply domestic demand, and the lithium hydroxide market is dominated by long-term transactions. The spot market atmosphere is light. In addition, the recent decline in the upstream lithium carbonate price has weakened the support for lithium hydroxide. The shipment of the holders is under pressure, and the price reduction shipment has increased. The focus of the lithium hydroxide market negotiation has declined.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is stable. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is slow. In the short term, the early trend will be maintained. The manufacturer only supplies old customers, but the number of new customers is limited.

The lithium carbonate analysts of the business community believe that at present, the downstream and terminal markets have mainly digested the inventory, and the demand is declining. The price of lithium carbonate is unlikely to rise before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment and expected price continue to weaken. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will show a weak consolidation in the short term.

This week (12.12-16), the domestic price of ethyl acetate did not change much. According to the statistics of the business community, the decline this week was 0, the raw material acetic acid hovered at a low level, the main factories in Shandong stopped selling, the market supply was tight compared with the previous period, and ethyl acetate temporarily stopped falling due to the improvement of supply and demand. At the weekend, the market price of ethyl acetate was between 6200-6500 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of acetic acid, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid continued to decline this week, with a weekly drop of 0.55%. The price is still low. Downstream demand downturn is difficult to support prices out of the haze, especially in North China, Northwest and other regions where demand is weak, and the fundamentals are negative, which may be difficult to reverse in the later period.

From the above figure, we can see that the price trends of acetic acid and ethyl acetate are highly correlated. Recently, the curves of the two intersect, and the decline of acetic acid is stronger than that of downstream ethyl acetate.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the starting rate of ethyl acetate this week decreased slightly, and the current operating rate of the industry is about 5.5% to 60%. Shandong large factories suspended sales, easing the pressure on market supply, but high social inventory still restricts the price rebound. This week, the quotations of some manufacturers were stable, and the prices of some factories were raised. However, the market expectation turned weak. At present, the situation that the supply of ethyl acetate exceeded the demand remains unchanged.

On the demand side, the downstream procurement remained just in demand, and the purchase intention of dealers and downstream factories was weak in the late ten days. The main factories in Shandong changed from auction to retail, and the deal was not ideal. Downstream orders contracted, resulting in a significant slowdown in the speed of goods delivery. The number of transactions in the market is relatively small, and most transactions are at low prices.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business community believed that the current raw material acetic acid is sluggish, which is not much good. It is unlikely that it will continue to rebound in the later period, and the cost will not be supported. In addition, the supply and demand will not improve too much. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term weakness of acetic acid will not change, and the price will fluctuate slightly.