441 # silicon price trend

This week, the price of silicon metal is still weak, and the silicon market is in an atmosphere of strong supply and weak demand, led by weak demand. As of December 18, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 19630 yuan/ton according to the monitoring of the business community.

On the 16th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions was as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port area is 19500-19700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19600 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 19500-1960 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 19300-19500 yuan/ton, 19400 yuan/ton on average; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 19200-19400 yuan/ton, with an average of 19300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 20200-20400 yuan/ton, and the average price is 20300 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Declining Price of Silicon Metal

Supply:

This week, the number of metal silicon furnaces has risen slightly. It is understood that the total number of metal silicon furnaces is 702. As of December 16, the metal silicon furnace opening rate is about 48.58%, 105 in Xinjiang, 47 in Sichuan and 65 in Yunnan. The production situation in Xinjiang has improved, and it is expected that the number of furnaces will continue to increase in the future. The number of furnace shutdowns in Sichuan and Yunnan continued to increase. Under the pressure of cost, the number of furnace shutdowns by manufacturers in southwest China still had room for decline.

Demand:

The mainstream quotation of polysilicon is 281666.66 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon keeps falling, the price of silicon chips drops synchronously, and the production capacity keeps increasing. It is expected that the demand for metal silicon will remain prosperous in the short term; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 19000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum plants was still not high. Under the mood of buying up rather than buying down, they were not willing to stock up on metal silicon; The silicone DMC market generally runs up in a narrow range. The quotation reference is 17040 yuan/ton. The downstream demand of silicone DMC has improved to some extent, but the overall trend is still to be cautious and low mining.

Future market forecast

Weak market demand continues to exert pressure on the price of metal silicon. However, silicon plants are facing high costs, and the upstream and downstream of silicon continue to play games. It is expected that metal silicon will still operate in a weak way in the short term. As prices continue to dip and costs continue to rise, the price support sentiment of silicon plants will become stronger and the market is expected to stabilize.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 17, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the same period last week, and the overall market was mainly stable.

This week, the white carbon black market is mainly stable, with the mainstream price of 6000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is ordinary.

Chemical index: On December 16, the chemical index was 930 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 33.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 55.52% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The white carbon black analyst of the business association believes that the rubber grade white carbon black market will operate stably in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 15, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that on December 8. Compared with that on June 15 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 1043 yuan/ton), the price increased by 13 yuan/ton, or 1.21%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.08-12.15) the domestic phosphorus ore market was generally stable, the information on the market was relatively calm, the overall change in the supply and demand side was small, the supply side was still tight, and the demand side just needed to purchase. Near the end of the year, some mining areas in China will stop mining, and the orders for next year will mainly be pre received. The quotation will also continue to the beginning of next year. As of December 15, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

The year 2022 is coming to an end. According to the phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market has not changed much, and the overall operation will continue to be dominated by high-level consolidation. More attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side for the specific trend.

The domestic fluorite price rose continuously. As of December 12, the average domestic fluorite price was 3387.5 yuan/ton, up 2.85% from 3093.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year.

Supply side: supply reduces the difficulty of spot fluorite

The operating rate of the domestic supply side has declined. On the one hand, the backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and on the other hand, the mineral survey work is still full of difficulties in terms of new mines. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient commencement of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, and limited commencement of fluorite flotation. On the other hand, as the temperature drops, fluorite enterprises in the north gradually stop working, and the spot supply continues to decline. In addition, due to the serious epidemic in some areas, fluorite transportation is difficult. The supply of fluorite is very tight, and the supply of fluorite is difficult to obtain. The price of fluorite has repeatedly hit new highs in the year.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid increases with the increase of inquiry

The price trend of the downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of December 12, the price of the hydrofluoric acid market was 12757.14 yuan/ton, 0.22% higher than the price of 12728.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The domestic market trend of hydrofluoric acid rose. Some enterprises reported that the supply of hydrofluoric acid was tight. The price rise of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of the fluorite market rose.

The export volume of fluorite increased greatly

In the second half of the year, overseas mines in Canada and Mexico stopped production, overseas fluorine chemical giants were generally out of stock, and domestic acid grade fluorite received more and more inquiries from international buyers, which aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply. In the first three quarters of 2022, China’s total export of fluorite with calcium fluoride content ≤ 97% is about 174500 tons, an increase of 60.12% over the same period last year; The total export volume of fluorite with calcium fluoride content>97% in China is about 172100 tons, up 397.32% over the same period last year. The export volume of fluorite has increased significantly, supporting the higher price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: the northern fluorite enterprises have entered the production suspension period. In addition, the supply of raw material fluorite ore is tight in the near future, the stock keeping sentiment of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is high, and the new energy, semiconductor and new material industries are developing rapidly, supporting the demand for fluorite in the long term. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that there is still room for the price of fluorite market to rise.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of December 12, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9100.00 yuan/ton, up 0.74% compared with last Tuesday (December 6).

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has been adjusted steadily. From the perspective of supply and demand: in the near future, the capacity utilization rate of epichlorohydrin is low. The production enterprises mainly deliver orders, and there is no pressure on the supply side. However, the downstream market inquiries are limited, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is stalemate. The focus of epichlorohydrin negotiations is mainly stable, with narrow adjustments.

From the upstream and downstream perspective: recently, the price of raw propylene is weak, the raw glycerin is stable, and the cost support for epichlorohydrin is weakened. The reference price of the downstream epoxy resin was 15700.00 on December 9, a decrease of 4.07% compared with December 1 (16366.67), which was insufficient to support the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost support is average. The downstream just needs small orders to follow up, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will wait and see in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the supply side.