1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 11066 yuan/ton on December 12, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 11133 yuan/ton on December 7. The domestic caprolactam price fell 0.60% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell this week. The price of raw material pure benzene fell first and then rose, and the cost of caprolactam was generally supported. This week, some enterprises may have maintenance plans for the reduction of caprolactam units. The operating rate of downstream domestic PA6 polymerization enterprises decreased by a narrow margin, and the overall load level was about 60%. The demand for caprolactam is stable and purchased on demand. As of December 12, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam offer was 11900 yuan/ton, and the liquid products were of superior quality, which were accepted in June.

Raw material pure benzene market, this week’s pure benzene trend range shocks. The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream are mostly wait-and-see, with general purchasing intention; During the week, the crude oil fell continuously, and the cost faced a negative impact on the pure benzene market; Downstream styrene grew slightly, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, there was about 140000 tons of pure benzene warehouse in East China port, 10000 tons less than last week. The change in port inventory was small, and the supply pressure was eased. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene remained stable at 6500 yuan/ton this week (down 50 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton in Shandong and Hebei).

3、 Future market forecast

According to caprolactam analysts from the business community, the recent raw material pure benzene market has been in shock and consolidation operation, the on-site supply of caprolactam is stable, the downstream demand is still sluggish, and the transaction is average. It is expected that caprolactam market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Friday was 32750 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 33000 yuan/ton, with a range of 0.76%.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus market prices rose this week. At present, the electricity restriction in Guizhou is intensifying, the yellow phosphorus output is declining, the market supply is also tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus is rising. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 33,000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 32500-34000 yuan/ton. Some manufacturers suspend quotation.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market was generally stable this week (12.04-12.09,). Towards the end of the year, some mining enterprises had closed their mines and stopped mining. The overall supply of high-grade phosphate rock in the site was still tight. The prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou were implemented until the end of the year, and the overall news of phosphate rock was relatively calm. As of December 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market price is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. According to the phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke will rise in a round from December 2 to December 9, 2022. As of December 9, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2482 yuan/ton, up 3.42%. This week, the second round of increase in the coke market has come to fruition. At present, there have been two rounds of increase, up 200-220 yuan/ton. At present, the coking market is in a good mood. The main production areas, such as Shanxi and Shandong, have started the third round of increase of 100-110 yuan/ton, and the scope of increase has gradually expanded. However, the downstream steel mills have a strong resistance to the third round of increase, which is difficult to implement, and coke steel has a heavy game mentality. In the future market, the business community thinks that the coke market is selling well at present, and the inventory in the factory is generally low, but the profits of the steel plant are low. It is expected that the coke price will be mainly stable in the short term. If the subsequent price of finished products continues to rise, the profits of the steel plant will be recovered, and there is room for the price to rise slightly.

Phosphoric acid, phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid increased this week. The average price of phosphoric acid last Friday was 8841.67 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 9100 yuan/ton. The price increased within the week by 2.92%. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market has moved up, and the enterprise’s offer has been adjusted to different extents. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will rise steadily in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices will rise this week. The price of upstream phosphate rock was consolidated at a high level, the coke price rose, and the price of downstream phosphoric acid market rose, with good support from upstream and downstream. In addition, the situation of power rationing in Guizhou has intensified, and the yellow phosphorus market inventory has declined. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene fell in shock this month. On November 1, the price was 7200-7500 yuan/ton (the average price was 7384 yuan/ton); On November 28, the price was 6700-6850 yuan/ton (the average price was 6759 yuan/ton), down 8.46% this month and up 1.64% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

This month, the pure benzene market was hit by various negative effects, and the price fell due to shocks. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side.

The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene fell by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton this month.

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by public health events, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell in shock this month. On November 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 730 dollars/ton, down 113 dollars/ton month on month, or 13.4%; East China imported pure benzene at US $762 per ton, a month on month drop of US $108 per ton, or 12.4%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Fundamentals are hard to change in the short term. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate reserves, with sufficient on-site supply. Pure benzene will continue its weak trend in the short term, and we will wait to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the market price of isobutyraldehyde dropped in November, from 6600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 5.56%.

On November 29, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 31.64, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 5.05% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now). From the weekly chart of isobutyraldehyde, isobutyraldehyde fell overall in October, with the largest weekly drop of 3.47%.

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly in November, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly in November. The price of propylene rose from 7036.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7650.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.73%. Compared with the same period last year, it rose 0.39% year on year. The increase of upstream cost support has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream fell sharply in November. The price of neopentyl glycol dropped from 10066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 10.93%. Downstream market fell sharply, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. Although the upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support was good. However, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream factories were not enthusiastic about purchasing isobutyraldehyde. The product trend fell due to the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On November 25, the price of pure benzene was 6700-6950 yuan/ton (the average price was 6784 yuan/ton), and on Friday (December 2), the price of pure benzene was 6450-6600 yuan/ton (the average price was 6559 yuan/ton), down 3.32% from last week and up 3.95% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

The fundamentals of pure benzene are poor, and the supply side continues to increase due to the accumulation of stocks in ports in East China; Downstream market is generally weak, and just need to buy. The trend of superimposed crude oil is weak, and the cost support is poor. The price of pure benzene fell due to multiple negative pressures. After the fall of pure benzene, the downstream buying recovered, and prices rebounded slightly in the coming weekend. At the beginning of the week, there were about 141000 tons of pure benzene in East China Port, an increase of about 22000 tons compared with last week.

This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton (down to 6450 yuan/ton in Shandong and Hebei).

In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 758 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton year-on-year, or 2.94%; The reference import price in East China was 789 US dollars/ton, down 23 US dollars/ton year on year, or 2.83%.

In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remain, and oil demand is under pressure. However, the OPEC+production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is volatile, the supply side of pure benzene is sufficient, and the overall downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the short-term weakness of pure benzene will be consolidated. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.