1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose many times this week, and the market trading atmosphere improved. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7436 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 77100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.68%, up 10.08% from 30 days ago.

As of December 2, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/December 2

Shandong region./7650-7700 yuan/ton

Northeast China/7300-7400 yuan/ton

East China./7250-7300 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the propylene market performed well this week, and the price rose to a stage high. Due to the low price in the early stage, the effect of enterprise destocking was obvious, and the restart time of PDH in the market was delayed, leading to the tight supply of propylene in Shandong. With the steady follow-up of demand, the price of propylene was raised many times. As of this Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong has risen to a high level. With the inflow of low-end goods from the surrounding areas, the resistance to rising has increased. The offer of some enterprises has been slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer of Shandong has been 7650-7700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: On the news side, crude oil prices stopped rising this week. As of the closing of December 1, WTI rose 0.67 to 81.22 dollars/barrel in January 2023, up 0.8%; In February 2023, Brent fell 0.09 to US $86.88 per barrel, down 0.1%. Crude oil is still expected to rise next week, supported by positive cost.

Downstream: The market of some downstream products declined mainly, but the commencement of some products was fair, and the demand for propylene was stable. Due to the rise of propylene price, the profit space of the polypropylene industry has shrunk, some enterprises have plans to reduce the burden, and other downstream derivatives have relatively stable demand.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the cost support is good, but the price rise inhibits downstream demand. Under the long short game, it is expected that the probability of Shandong propylene market declining next week will increase.

In November, domestic cobalt prices fell in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average domestic cobalt price was 334600 yuan/ton, down 2.36% from 342700 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared with the cobalt price of 348300 yuan/ton on October 30, it decreased by 3.93%. In November, the domestic cobalt price fell in N-type weakness.

The mobile phone market is not prosperous in the Christmas season

South Korean mobile phone giant Samsung cut its smartphone production in Vietnam for the second time this year, which is in sharp contrast to the traditional sales peak season before Christmas. During the period from October to November, Samsung plans to produce only 34 million smartphones. For the sales season before Christmas, there has been a sharp drop compared with the same period of previous years. Samsung also lowered its annual total smartphone production target from 334 million to 270 million to 280 million, and its shipment target from 300 million to 260 million. The annual shipment in 2022 is expected to be 13.3% lower than the mid year estimate. Samsung’s smartphone shipments decreased, mainly due to the compression of the European and American consumer markets. Mobile phone market consumption is weak, Christmas consumption season is not strong, and cobalt market demand is weak.

Ternary battery output and installed capacity

It can be seen from the chart of installed capacity and output of ternary batteries that in October, the output of ternary batteries in China was 24.2 GWh, accounting for 38.6% of the total output, with a year-on-year growth of 163.5% and a month on month decline of 0.2%; The loading of ternary batteries was 10.8GWh, accounting for 35.4% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 55.2% and a month on month decrease of 3.5%; In October, the installed capacity and output of ternary batteries both declined month on month, the proportion of ternary batteries shrank, and the demand for cobalt market weakened.

The import of cobalt raw materials decreased sharply month on month

It can be seen from the data map released by the General Administration of Customs that in October 2022, China’s cobalt raw material imports totaled 7600 tons of metal tons, a sharp decrease of 28% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 41%. From January to October 2022, China’s cobalt raw material imports totaled 84900 tons of metal, up year-on-year. The import of cobalt raw materials increased year on year, and the supply of cobalt was sufficient. In October, the import volume of cobalt raw materials fell sharply on a month on month basis, the supply of cobalt market decreased on a month on month basis, and the price of cobalt was driven up.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that in terms of demand, the consumption of mobile phone market is weak, the demand for ternary batteries is shrinking, and the demand for national storage information in the middle of the year is rising in the short term; In terms of supply, the import volume of cobalt raw materials rose, and the supply of cobalt market was sufficient. In the future, the supply of cobalt market is sufficient and the demand is weak. It is expected that the weak shocks in the future cobalt market will stabilize.

In November, the domestic ethanol market declined with little fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the price at the beginning of the month was 6762 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 6700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The maximum amplitude in the month was 1.11%, and the price fell 4.63% year on year.

At the beginning of this month, the domestic ethanol market price range was reorganized, and short-term prices were hardly boosted, with a small downward trend as the main trend. The price of raw corn fluctuated, the starting load of downstream chemical acetate was stable, and the demand decreased. Stable load arrangement on the plant surface, and weak price operation on the ethanol market.

In the middle of this month, the domestic ethanol market continued to trade in a weak way. The supply side was relatively abundant in the short term, and the operating capacity of production plants was higher than that in October. However, the demand side was limited in the short term, which continued to be weak, and it was difficult to see significant benefits in the short term. The transaction price of the domestic ethanol market continued to operate in a weak way.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic ethanol market continued to be dominated by weak transactions, the market atmosphere in various regions continued to be cold, and some factories mainly drove up prices, but the actual transactions were average. In some regions, the unit operating load was high, the demand side remained low, and the domestic ethanol market continued to operate at a low level in the short term.

At the end of the month, there was a negative phenomenon in units in various regions, the supply side increased in a short term, and the domestic ethanol market was weak.

Strong cost support and stable demand operation. The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.

1、 Price data

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7874.75 yuan/ton, down 3.02% from 8119.75 yuan/ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-8000 yuan/ton.

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7554.00 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from 7734.00 yuan/ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

On November 27, the naphtha commodity index was 97.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.10% from the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and up 130.09% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and there was no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming. It was mainly purchased on demand, logistics was blocked in many places across the country, refineries reduced prices and shipped, and the market was mainly wait-and-see.

Upstream: International crude oil prices fell in shock. The inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was negative, and the inventory of refined oil increased more than expected. It was also reported that the Group of Seven considered that the price limit of Russian seaborne oil was higher than the price ceiling of the current market level, and the supply tightening concerns eased. Western countries have not reached an agreement on the upper limit of Russian oil price; The oil price continues to be under pressure due to overlapping demand concerns.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of toluene fell this week. On November 27, it was 7350 yuan/ton, and on November 21, it was 7440 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On November 27, the price was 7840 yuan/ton, and on November 21, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, down 3.21% from last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of this week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future market forecast

The energy analysts of the business agency believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; There is no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming, and the procurement is mainly on demand. Logistics in many places across the country is blocked, refineries are active in shipping, and businesses are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and transactions are cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha will continue to decline in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 25, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference is 8866 yuan/ton, which is 200 yuan/ton higher than the price on November 1 (8666 yuan/ton), or 2.31% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since November (11.1-11.25), the domestic butanone market has risen first, then fell, and the overall market has risen slightly. The market trend of butanone can be divided into two parts: the first ten days and the last ten days:

In the first ten days of November, the domestic butanone market was dominated by the overall rise. Since the beginning of the month, the high price of C4 after the raw material ether gave support to the cost of butanone, and the butanone market price was steadily moving upward. On November 17, the butanone market price was 8966 yuan/ton, up 3.46% in the first ten days.

In late November, the rise of domestic butanone market failed to continue. Under the supply and demand game, the market was temporarily stuck at a high level. However, the downstream demand was generally large, and under the control of demand, near the end of the month, the butanone market began to decline. On November 25, the butanone market price referred to 8866 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.12% on the fifth day.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere of butanone on the market is flat, and the downstream demand is still weak as a whole. Butanone mathematicians from the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is dragged down by demand or has the risk of further small decline. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.