Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 17.81% year on year.

 

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX’s external market has declined slightly. As of October 10, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 974-976 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 992-994 dollars/ton CFR China. The decline of external market price is bad for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has slightly increased. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

 

The price of crude oil fell slightly this week. As of the 10th day, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States had reached 86.47 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had reached 93.67 dollars/barrel. The oil demand forecast in Asia is still uncertain. With the US mid-term election looming, market concerns about demand have depressed oil prices. In addition, the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was negative, and the growth of crude oil inventory last week exceeded expectations. The price of crude oil declined slightly, and the domestic market price of paraxylene was temporarily stable due to this impact.

 

The downstream PTA market price fell slightly this week, and the average PTA market price was 5700-5750 yuan/ton as of the 11th day. The commissioning of new devices has been the main negative factor to suppress the PTA price in recent months, which has been partly reflected in the price. With the implementation of new devices, the supply of PTA has gradually increased. The current PTA operating rate is around 74.5%, and the supply is more relaxed than the previous period. At present, it is in the traditional peak season of the textile industry. As the temperature gradually drops, there is a potential demand for periodic bargain hunting. Domestic orders for cold proof and warm insulation textiles and clothing fabrics in autumn and winter have improved on a month on month basis. The purchase volume in Europe and other places has rebounded. The purchase of blankets and electric blankets in Yiwu has been significantly boosted. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is maintained at around 57%. However, on the whole, terminal orders are mainly small and medium-sized orders. On the whole, the downstream market has not changed much. Affected by this, the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

 

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is a long short game, and the short-term price will remain volatile. The downstream commencement of the terminal has little change. Although the overall demand is maintained, the overall supply of PTA may gradually increase, and the price has downward pressure. It is expected that there may be a small decline in the market price of dimethylbenzene in the later period.

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Zinc price rose continuously in November

 

According to the data monitoring of the business community, after the continuous fall of the zinc price, the zinc price rose in November. As of November 8, the zinc price was 24668 yuan/ton, up 6.61% from 23138 yuan/ton on November 1. The continuous fall of zinc price stimulated the turnover and accumulation of zinc market. The inventory of zinc market fell sharply and the supply of zinc was tight. In November, the zinc price rose for five consecutive times.

 

The inventory of zinc ingots in the zinc market dropped sharply

Statistical table of zinc futures inventory in Shanghai futures market

Time, futures inventory, increase and decrease

October 10., 12865., – 1251

October 11., 12638., – 227

October 12, 13041, 403

October 13., 13165., 124

October 14., 16329., 3164

October 17, 42,080, 25,751

October 18, 45164, 3084

October 19., 44990., – 174

October 20., 40900., – 4090

October 21., 38815., – 2085

October 24., 37087., – 1728

October 25.,, 32335., – 4752

October 26., 30228., – 2107

October 27, 27,460., – 2768

October 28., 22669., – 4791

October 31., 17,935., – 4734

November 1, 11318, – 6617

November 2., 5347., – 5971

November 3., 1396., – 3951

November 4., 842., – 554

November 7., 644., – 198

November 8., 644., 0

It can be seen from the zinc ingot inventory table of Shanghai futures market that since the middle of October, the demand of zinc market is expected to recover, and the inventory of Shanghai futures market has declined, while the continuous drop of zinc price at the end of October has further stimulated the enthusiasm of zinc market. By November, the zinc inventory had dropped 6617 tons on the first day, and the zinc market’s inventory had no way to drop, and the zinc price had risen.

 

Zinc ingot inventory in London futures market

Time, futures inventory, increase and decrease

October 3., 53,625., 0

October 4., 53425., – 200

October 5., 53350., – 75

October 6., 53325., – 25

October 7., 53475., 150

October 10., 53300., – 175

October 11., 53,275., – 25

October 12,. 53100., – 175

October 13,. 51,925., – 1175

October 14., 51500., – 425

October 17, 51350, – 150

October 18., 51225., – 125

October 19., 51200., – 25

October 20., 50925., – 275

October 21., 50600., – 325

October 24., 50575., – 25

October 25., 49825., – 750

October 26., 48925., – 900

October 27., 48175., – 750

October 28., 47400., – 775

October 31., 45525., – 1875

November 1., 44825., – 700

November 2., 44225., – 600

November 3., 44175., – 50

November 4, 44050, – 125

November 7, 43850., – 200

November 8., 43675., – 175

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

It can be seen from the zinc ingot inventory table in London futures market that since October, the zinc ingot inventory in London market has been declining continuously, and the speed has reached the peak around November. The supply of zinc ingots in the international market is insufficient, and the inventory of zinc market continues to decline. At the end of October, the continuous fall of zinc price stimulated the purchasing enthusiasm of zinc market, and the inventory of zinc ingots dropped significantly. However, with the continuous increase of zinc price, the purchasing enthusiasm of zinc market declined. The reduction of zinc ingot inventory slowed down.

 

Future market forecast

 

According to the data analysts of the business community; The general background of weak supply and demand in the zinc market has not fundamentally changed. The demand in the zinc market in October did not perform as expected, and the zinc price fell continuously. However, the falling zinc price stimulated downstream customers’ desire to copy the bottom, and the zinc ingot inventory plummeted. The supply of zinc is temporarily in short supply, and the price of zinc has risen continuously in November. However, the overall balance of supply and demand in the zinc market has not been broken. With the decline of zinc ingot inventory, the rise of zinc price has slowed down. It is expected that the future zinc price will fall slightly in the short term, and the medium and long term zinc price will be adjusted in a wide range.

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According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 3930 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 16.38% year on year.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

This week, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal. The goods on the site were generally shipped. The manufacturer’s inventory was not high. The price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal rose. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly. The price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal, but the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started to work. Recently, the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

 

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2333.33yuan/ton, unchanged from the price at the beginning of the week. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2150 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is normal. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the market remains stable, the price of raw nitric acid supports the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

 

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week. As of October 7, the price of liquid ammonia was 4330 yuan/ton, 5.27% higher than the price of 4113.33 yuan/ton on October 31. Domestic dealers generally reported high, with an increase of more than 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the supply pressure in this region is not large, the inventory pressure of large factories is relieved, the self consumption is increased, and the export volume is reduced. Since this week, the large factories in Shandong have generally raised the price twice, with a range of more than 100 yuan. Downstream demand is mainly supported by demand. After the urea market rebounded at the end of last month, the supply and demand in this region are basically balanced, and the mainstream price in the market is 4250-4350 yuan/ton. The rising price of upstream liquid ammonia has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

 

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry may gradually start, the price of liquid ammonia market will rise, the price trend of nitric acid will be temporarily stable, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate will be normal. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene fell by a narrow margin this week, and the price in South China was temporarily stable. The price was 8230 yuan/ton on October 28; On Friday (November 4), the price was 8060 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week and up 22.68% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and review

 

The demand for downstream chemical products remains weak, the demand for terminal gasoline becomes weak, the demand side of mixed xylene performs poorly, and the price drops weakly. However, the supply of mixed xylene continued to be tight, and the enterprise’s inventory was low, supporting the price. The decline was limited within the week.

 

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market rebounded after falling this week. On Thursday (November 3), South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $952.5 per ton, a year-on-year drop of US $36 per ton, or 3.64%.

 

In terms of crude oil, the economic data performed better than expected. Superimposed on the decline of the US dollar, the US crude oil and gasoline stocks declined. OPEC+promoted production reduction. The demand of the oil market may improve. The overall international oil price rose this week. As of November 4, Brent prices this week rose by 2.8 dollars/barrel, or 2.92%, compared with last week; WTI rose $4.71 per barrel, or 5.36%.

 

In terms of downstream, in terms of PX, domestic PX fell broadly this week. On October 28, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 8600 yuan/ton, 7.53% lower than last week, and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

 

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China fell this week. On October 28, it was 9600 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 9300 yuan/ton, down 3.12% from last week and up 27.05% from the same period last year.

 

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rebounded slightly after falling this week. On October 28, the price was 8329 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 8179 yuan/ton, 1.8% lower than last week, and 1.33% higher than the same period last year.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, in the later stage, the macro and supply and demand sides are still good for the oil market, and the oil price may be stronger in the future. However, before the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia comes into effect, the oil market is still uncertain due to the disturbance of geopolitical factors. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

 

Although there is still support on the supply side, the demand side has depressed the mixed xylene market. In general, mixed xylene still continues to operate in a weak position. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

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The soaring price of raw materials drives the rise of DOTP price

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

It can be seen from the chart of the rise and fall of DOTP industrial chain price of the business cooperative that the rise of both the raw material isooctanol and PTA prices this week stimulated the rise of DOTP, with isooctanol rising 5.93%, PTA rising 1.54%, DOTP rising 3.93%, and plasticizer DOTP industrial chain products rising at the same time.

 

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the average price of DOTP was 10250 yuan/ton, 387.50 yuan/ton higher than the average price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on October 28. The corresponding price of isooctanol rose by nearly 700 yuan/ton, and the PTA price rose by 87.5 yuan/ton. The difference between the rise of isooctanol price and the rise of DOTP price is large, mainly because the weak downstream demand has dragged down the plasticizer market, and the insufficient rise of PTA price does not support the sharp rise of DOTP.

 

The price trend of raw materials rises

 
According to the data of the business association; The price of isooctanol stopped rising this week. As of November 4, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 5.93% from 9000 yuan/ton on October 31 last weekend. This week, due to equipment maintenance of isooctanol manufacturers and limited transportation, it is difficult for manufacturers to ship. The price of isooctanol has risen sharply, and the cost of DOTP has risen. With the recovery of transportation, the demand is poor, and the price rise of isooctanol in the future market is not supported enough.

 

According to the data of the business community, as of November 4, the PTA price was 5787.50 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from 5700 yuan/ton on October 30 last weekend. Recently, there are many PTA maintenance and production reduction capacities, PTA supply is tight, PTA prices are rising, raw material prices are rising, and DOTP is gaining momentum.

 

The market for plastic products remains weak

 

According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in September was 6.92 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The domestic output of plastic products from January to September was 57.607 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 4.2%. In the traditional peak season, the output of plastic products in September is slightly higher than that in August, which is relatively normal, while the domestic manufacturing industry contracted in October. The output of plastic products in October is expected to converge to October 2021 or lower than the same period last year. The downstream just needs insufficient digestion capacity, the demand for plasticizer is expected to decline, and the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP price is large.

 

Future market expectation

 

Analysts of DOTP data from the business agency believe that the rise in the prices of raw materials, such as isooctanol and PTA, this week has stimulated the rise in DOTP prices. However, due to the weak performance on the demand side, the rise in plasticizer DOTP has been weak. In the future, with the recovery of transportation and the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply shortage of isooctanol and PTA will be alleviated, the DOTP cost support will be weakened, and the demand will be weak. The DOTP decline risk will increase. It is expected that the DOTP will stabilize at a high level in the future, with a downside risk.

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