From October 1, 2022 to October 31, 2022, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese will rise. The spot market price in East China will be 16700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.59%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that the electrolytic manganese market stopped falling and recovered after entering August. Although the increase rate in August and September was less than 1%, the increase rate in October was 3.59%, and the electrolytic manganese market began to recover. From the weekly chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has maintained a temporary stable operation for most of the time, and the price has risen significantly near the end of October.

Manganese ore: In October, the manganese ore market was dominated by weak operation, and the manufacturers’ price reduction was obvious, but the demand was relatively stable. In terms of transportation, the lines in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi are still limited, the freight rate keeps rising slightly, and the superimposed silicon manganese market goes down, and the loss of manufacturers further rises. As of October 28, the semicarbonic acid in Tianjin Port was 34-34.5 yuan/ton, the Australian block was about 44.5 yuan/ton, the transaction of Australian seed dropped below 40 yuan/ton, and Gabon was about 39 yuan/ton. The short-term price performance was weak, and the shipment sentiment was strong; In Qinzhou Port, the transaction price of South Africa semi carbonic acid is lower than 35 yuan/ton, and the price of Australia is 44-45 yuan/ton. The price of Gabon block is about 42 yuan/ton.

In September 2022, China will import 3.126 million tons of manganese ore, an increase of 30.25% compared with 2.4 million tons in August; The import volume from South Africa in September was 1537900 tons, an increase of 55.11% month on month. In September, the import volume from Australia was 4216000 tons, an increase of 91.5% month on month.

From January to September 2022, China imported 22229300 tons of manganese ore.

The electrolytic manganese market has rebounded slightly since the end of August, but the overall performance is average, with a monthly increase of less than 1%. After entering October, the first half of the month remained temporarily stable for most of the time, and the price rose slightly near the end of the month. At present, the mainstream market price is 15500-15700 yuan/ Tons, but the market turnover was less than expected, and the downstream still focused on purchasing on demand. In terms of steel bidding, POSCO, South Korea, resumed electrolytic manganese bidding again this month, boosting the market mentality. However, the overall situation of domestic steel bidding has also improved compared with the previous period. The quantity and price of steel bidding have rebounded to a certain extent compared with the previous period, and the market mentality has improved to a certain extent. The domestic alliance will implement the measures of limiting production and reducing production in August December. After the alliance meeting, the price starts to rise slightly. The enterprises have a strong attitude towards price fixing, and the market has been boosted to a certain extent. It is expected that the future market price will remain stable and strong, and there is still some room for growth. The mentality of supply and demand game is strong.

Bad news kept coming in October. The domestic silicon manganese spot market had a poor trend, and the futures market declined. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7000-7200 yuan/ton on October 28, down 1.62% from the beginning of the month.

Relevant data:

In September 2022, China’s imports of electrolytic manganese were 2000.39 tons, up 1000.38 tons month on month; In September 2022, the export volume of China’s electrolytic manganese was 23464.81 tons, up 3643.88 tons month on month.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic LNG was 6006 yuan/ton on October 26, and 5380 yuan/ton on November 2. Domestic LNG prices fell 10.42% within seven days.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from August 8, 2022 to October 30, 2022 that the domestic LNG industry has seen a lot of ups and downs during the cycle. The maximum increase in the cycle was 10.25% in the week of September 12, and the maximum decrease was -12.1% in the week of October 24.

The domestic LNG market has been weak in recent seven days, and the price trend has continued to decline. Due to the strengthened control of domestic epidemic situation and the blocked transportation, the price of domestic gas has been greatly reduced. The market demand is low, and the market is mainly bad. The final bid price of feed gas directly supplied by PetroChina to the northwest liquid plant in the first ten days of November was 3.55-3.81 yuan/m3, the average price was 0.24 yuan/m3 higher than the previous period, and the trading volume was 50 million m3. At present, the market trading is still flat, with gains and losses in various regions. As the northern heating season begins, the terminal demand will be released gradually.

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on November 2:

Region, quotation

Inner Mongolia 5250-5660

Shaanxi, 5700-6000

Shanxi Province, 5300-5800

Ningxia, 5550-5760

Hebei.,. 5950-6050

Henan, 6100-6500

Sichuan, 6100-6500

Shandong, 6330-6450

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that: due to weak terminal demand, the domestic LNG market has continued to run weak in recent days. With the start of the heating season in the north, the market demand for liquefied natural gas has increased, and there are signs of rebound in some areas, so the market is waiting to rise. In addition, the price of feed gas is firm and the cost is supported. It is expected that the LNG market will stop falling and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Analysis of upstream acetic acid market trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, acetic acid experienced a roller coaster market in October, which generally rose first and then fell. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3310 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3440 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.92% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 49.0%.

Before and after the National Day, when the operating rate of enterprises was low and the downstream demand was good, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, with more parent orders and less inventory. One week after the festival, acetic acid rose by nearly 14%. However, in the second half of the month, the market turned sharply downward, the operating rate of acetic acid increased significantly, the plants of Tianjin Soda Plant, Jiangsu Sopu, Yanchang Refinery and other manufacturers resumed operation in succession, the supply of acetic acid increased significantly, and the upstream methanol price fell significantly (methanol fell by 7.39% in October). The market atmosphere fell to the freezing point, and the acetic acid price fell again and again. By the end of the month, most of the increase in the first ten days had been erased. At the end of the month, with Hualu parking, the inventory in Shandong Province declined slightly, and the price of acetic acid gradually stopped falling.

2、 Analysis on the market trend of ethyl acetate

This month, domestic ethyl acetate was still weak, and the market was still in the process of bottoming. According to the statistics of the business community, the drop in this month was 0.76%. Near the end of the month, the market price of ethyl acetate was 6600-6800 yuan/ton.

This month, the cost of ethyl acetate was not very good. Although the trend of rising first and then falling was followed by acetic acid, the amplitude was very limited due to weak downstream demand, which fluctuated within 3% throughout the month. One week after the festival, affected by the sharp rise in the price of acetic acid, ethyl acetate rose with the rise, but the cost driven market did not match supply and demand. After the middle of the year, under the influence of weak demand, prices fell in a negative way, erasing all previous gains, and the monthly line was slightly lower. On the one hand, the supply side is under pressure. While the bidding price of Shandong’s large factories has been lowered repeatedly, the bidding effect is average. In addition, the supply of large factories in Jiangsu is stable, and the ample supply of goods suppresses the rise of prices.

3、 Analysis of butyl acetate market trend

This month, domestic butyl acetate rebounded slightly, but the market performance was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, the monthly increase of butyl acetate was 1.39%. At the end of the month, the domestic butyl ester price range was 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, there are differences in cost. Although acetic acid fell in the middle and late days, n-butanol, another raw material, performed admirably. In October, n-butanol rose nearly 10%. Boost the downstream butyl acetate. However, although the cost is good, the supply and demand are still under pressure, so the rise of butyl ester is obviously weak. On the supply side, the operating rate of butyl ester manufacturers was still low in October, which remained at the level of 3-4% for a long time, but there were not many overhaul manufacturers, the market supply was abundant, the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the price was difficult to have a strong performance.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industry chain that the industry chain is uneven in heat and cold, and the drop of methanol at the source end (-7.39%) is significant, easing the cost pressure of acetic acid and downstream products. The downstream trend of acetic acid is differentiated. Ethyl acetate (-0.76%), EVA (-9.75%) and PTA (-11.86%) are weak, while acetic anhydride (2.06%) and butyl acetate (1.39%) are strong.

5、 Prospect of acetic acid industry chain

Future market forecast: The analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain will maintain a weak consolidation. On the one hand, there is still downward pressure on upstream costs, which will bring negative effects to the downstream acetic acid industry chain. In addition, the epidemic situation is repeated, transportation is blocked, downstream demand is weak, and the price of acetic acid is hardly improved. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester may be differentiated. Ethyl ester may still be weak due to the pressure of supply and demand, while butyl ester may rebound slightly with the strength of n-butanol.

Price trend in October

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the business community, the price of cryolite rose slightly in October. On October 31, the average market price in Henan was 7875 yuan/ton, 1.29% higher than the price of 7775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 12.50% higher than that of last year.

In October, the domestic cryolite market was put into operation, and the quotation of cryolite enterprises was slightly raised in the month, mainly because the raw material end factories started at a low level, the supply of goods in the market was tight, the production pressure of cryolite enterprises increased, the on-site devices operated at low loads, the enterprise inventory was tight, the downstream follow-up on the purchase of high priced cryolite was weak, the enterprise shipment was not good, mainly based on demand, the market supply and demand were frozen, the industry was wait-and-see, and the cryolite market was high and firm.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic price of fluorite has risen sharply. Due to safety and environmental protection requirements, the raw ore is under construction, the fluorite raw materials are scarce, and the processing cost is under pressure. The fluorite plant starts at a low level, and the price has risen sharply. The average price of fluorite at the end of the month is 3156.25 yuan/ton, up 11.73% compared with the price at the beginning of the month of 2825.00 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the raw ore is tight, and the downstream follows up on demand. It is expected that the price of fluorite will continue to rise in the short term.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated in October. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 18023.33 yuan/ton, 1.82% lower than the average market price of 18356.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises started to resume, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum recovered slightly under the background of Jinjiuyinshi market, but the demand growth was slow under the macroeconomic weakness, and the downstream support was insufficient, and the aluminum market in the future fluctuated.

Future market forecast

At present, the cryolite price remains stable at a high level, the low level of raw material commencement continues to be tight, the downstream demand is weak, the market just needs to buy, the market trading atmosphere is general, the short-term market supply and demand are deadlocked, and the cryolite price remains at a high level.

Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market Price Trend

Polyformaldehyde price curve

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of paraformaldehyde production in Shandong was 5366 yuan/ton on October 1, and 5433 yuan/ton on October 24, up 1.24%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market price fell 7.39% from October 1 to October 28. On October 27, the methanol market continued to decline, the coal price slightly loosened, the crude oil fluctuated, the supply side was abundant, the demand side did not improve, and the methanol market fell for two consecutive days. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders. The support for raw material methanol is insufficient, and polyformaldehyde analysts of the business community predict that the price of polyformaldehyde may be lowered.