Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: The market average price on January 16th was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Analysis points: The isopropanol market is currently stable today. The confidence in the on-site market is still acceptable, with high prices in the upstream acetone market and some cost support. Downstream inquiries are average, market trading is relatively light, procurement is on demand, and transactions are cautious. Overall, the market enthusiasm is average, and the focus of negotiations is mainly on maintaining stability.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will consolidate and operate within a certain range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was mainly consolidated in mid January, with most brand products experiencing narrow price changes. As of January 15th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7608.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.50% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, international crude oil prices have risen. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts, providing favorable support for crude oil supply. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the oil market. Overall, the standardization rate of PP upstream remains positive. In the early stage, the propylene sector was boosted by domestic and foreign markets, coupled with an increase in midstream stocking operations. However, in recent days, trading has cooled down and prices have fallen sharply. Overall, the PP raw material market in mid January showed more gains than losses, and the cost side support was still relatively strong.

Supply side:

In the month, PP enterprises in China resumed work and production, and the overall load level remained stable with a slight increase. In the early stage, the load of enterprises such as Sino Korean Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical gradually returned, and overall, the industry’s overall load increased by about 0.5% to 79%. The average weekly production in China is around 740000 tons, with a slight increase in PP shipments. Although the production of some newly put into operation devices is not yet stable, the supply is still abundant. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

Recently, the demand for PP has shifted towards weak rigid demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice has decreased, and the consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined. Terminal enterprises have a low willingness to hold positions and tend to operate in the short term. And as the holidays gradually enter, the load decreases. In addition, with the trend of year-end fund withdrawal in the market, overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.

Future forecast

In January, the domestic PP market prices in China remained stable with slight declines. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The industry supply has slightly increased. According to consumer feedback, as the Spring Festival approaches, businesses are gradually withdrawing from the market, and pre holiday stocking is gradually being completed. However, there is a lack of purchasing power in the market. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will continue to maintain a stable game pattern between costs and demand, with a relatively stable trend.

The ABS market in China remained stable and organized in January, with spot prices of various grades showing small fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 14th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11875 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In January, the operating rate of the ABS industry in China remained stable with a slight decrease, and the industry load level saw a narrow decline of about 1% to 73% compared to the beginning of the month. Mainly due to the decrease in load of the Tianjin Dagu plant. However, the weekly average production within the range is still close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregated enterprises is close to 170000 tons, both of which are in a high horizontal trend. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. Overall, there was no improvement in the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices in mid January.

Cost factor: Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have shown mixed trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. The domestic acrylonitrile market has maintained a sideways trend recently. In the early stage, the industry maintained low load operation, and it will take time for supply to return. In addition, the industry’s inventory position is low, and prices are running steadily. But downstream buying sentiment has weakened, and the overall market is adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

Recently, the butadiene market has also remained strong at a high level, and the available supply of goods in the spot market has remained relatively tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices. But with the continuous rise of spot prices in the early stage, the downstream high-level receiving ability gradually declines. At the same time, with the expectation of increased production capacity in the future, it is expected that butadiene may enter a weak consolidation market.

In terms of styrene, it fell in early January, but recently the market has fluctuated and rebounded narrowly. Entering January, it is common for styrene plants to restart, and the tight supply situation has become more relaxed, resulting in a weakened market. However, in recent times, upstream crude oil prices have risen, coupled with low styrene prices and stable downstream demand, resulting in a narrow rebound in prices.

On the demand side: In January, the purchasing power in the middle and lower reaches was weak, and the demand for export of some front-end home appliances in the terminal sector was exhausted. At the same time, as the Lunar New Year holiday approached, terminal factories gradually closed, and the overall load position fell. Downstream enterprises gradually completed stocking. Overall, the demand side provides average market support. However, the extension of the national subsidy policy for household appliances will stimulate the market, and terminal products may continue to receive policy support in the future. There is hope for enterprise inventory digestion, and market confidence is expected to remain stable.

Future forecast

The ABS market in China in January was mainly sorted out. The performance of the upstream three materials is still acceptable, but the comprehensive support for ABS cost side is average. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly decreased, with limited changes in the supply side. The demand on the demand side is weak, and the demand on the market is becoming weaker. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may enter a pre holiday period and stabilize.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market has seen a significant increase

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7050 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 6.62% compared to the price of 6612.50 yuan/ton on January 6th; Compared to January 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride increased significantly by 6.82% to 6600 yuan/ton. Stable operation of phthalic anhydride equipment and low inventory of phthalic anhydride; Plasticizer companies are operating at a high level, and there is active demand for phthalic anhydride procurement, which supports the demand for phthalic anhydride. With stocking up before the Spring Festival, the demand for phthalic anhydride briefly increased. The price of ortho benzene has risen significantly, the cost of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the price increase of phthalic anhydride has increased.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with approximately 60% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at capacity. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have low inventory levels, resulting in tight supply of phthalic anhydride.

The cost of raw materials such as benzene has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the price of ortho xylene was 7200 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.46% compared to the price of 6700 yuan/ton on January 6th. The price of ortho benzene has significantly increased, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has risen, increasing the driving force for the rise of ortho phthalic anhydride. Industrial naphthalene prices are consolidating strongly, and the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is rising. The overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials has increased.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the DOP price was 8401.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.32% compared to the DOP price of 8513.75 yuan/ton on January 6th. Plasticizer companies have high profits, and they are actively starting production. The demand for raw material phthalic anhydride is also active, and before the Spring Festival, plasticizer manufacturers will replenish their inventory, which will greatly support the demand for phthalic anhydride.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has significantly increased, and the price of industrial naphthalene has remained strong and consolidated. The cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, and the driving force for the increase in phthalic anhydride costs has increased; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have high operating loads, coupled with stocking up before the Spring Festival, which provides strong support for phthalic anhydride demand. Overall, with cost support and downstream demand, it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market will rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the average selling price of PET is 6227 yuan/ton, and the price trend shows an upward trend.

Recently, crude oil and raw materials have risen strongly, and PET cost support has been strong. Against this backdrop of rising costs, PET market prices have continued to rise, coupled with low industry processing fees and strong willingness from factories to raise prices. Today, PET market quotations have risen.

Overall, Business Society believes that the cost side support is strong, and the PET market price may fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil. Looking ahead, starting from the end of December, with the gradual increase in stocking demand during the Spring Festival, as well as the potential increase in operating rates in the oil and PET sheet industries, domestic demand for PET is expected to see a slight increase.