According to the monitoring data of the business community, the TDI price in East China rose at a high level after the festival. As of October 13, the average market price in East China was 24366.67 yuan/ton, up nearly 4300 yuan/ton, or 21.38%, compared with the price of 20075 yuan/ton on September 30.

After the National Day, TDI prices continued to rise at a high level, with a one-day increase of 1300 yuan/ton. From the perspective of market trading, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and a small amount of follow-up is also just needed. However, the TDI price has risen continuously, why.

External market: large overseas supply gap and strong demand

The 300000 ton TDI unit of BASF Factory in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was shut down due to force majeure in March 2022.

The 250000 ton TDI unit of Hungary Wanhua Chemical will be overhauled in July 2022, and will operate under low load after restart in early September.

In August 2022, the 300000 ton TDI unit of German Malgenkostro plant encountered force majeure and has not been restarted.

The leakage of Beixi Pipeline has led to the shortage of natural gas in Europe and the restriction of factory commencement, which has once again aggravated the tension of TDI supply in the European market.

Domestic market: release of information such as factory sealing, device maintenance, limited supply of large factories, etc

On October 10, the market learned that Shanghai Covestro TDI was closed for parking, which is expected to take about a week;

On the evening of October 10, Wanhua Chemical released a notice on the shutdown and maintenance of the TDI device in Yantai Industrial Park;

On October 13, the market learned that the latest strike price of Shanghai Covestro TDI was raised by 2000 yuan/ton to 25700 yuan/ton for limited supply.

At the beginning of the month, the big factory listed the price information in October, giving the market a rising signal, and the traders’ offer rose. After the National Day, due to the impact of public health events in Xinjiang, the logistics transportation was slow, the delivery period of Xinjiang Juli was extended, and the market supply was tightened. During the week, the good news from the suppliers was stacked on top of each other. The market atmosphere was positive and the TDI price rose at a high level. Therefore, under the leadership of the supplier market, a sharp rise in TDI was inevitable.

In the future market analysis, TDI data engineers of the business agency believed that the overseas demand was strong, the focus of domestic factories tended to the export market, and many factories were limited in supply. TDI’s spot goods were tight, traders were rising at a high level, and they were reluctant to sell. Some closed orders were suspended, and the market was in a strong bullish atmosphere. It was expected that the future TDI market would continue to be strong and upward, and specific attention should be paid to the release of supplier information.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business community, pure benzene rose during the National Day holiday. On September 30, the price of pure benzene was 7850-8200 yuan/ton (average price 7917 yuan/ton), and on October 11, the price was 8200-8400 yuan/ton (average price 8284 yuan/ton), up 4.63% from before the festival and down 2.31% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the strong rise of crude oil during the holiday period and the rise of pure benzene in Asia, the domestic pure benzene market was boosted. During the National Day holiday, the market in East China was closed, and the local refining enterprises in Shandong had a good shipment and prices rose. After the festival, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene twice, up 350 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton (some refineries in North China increased to 8250 yuan/ton).

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on October 7 was 919 US dollars/ton, up 32 US dollars/ton or 3.61% compared with that before the festival; The reference import price in East China was 937 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton or 2.18% compared with that before the festival.

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+meeting decided to cut the output by 2 million barrels per day from November on the basis of that in August. The OPEC+production cut decided to benefit the crude oil market. International oil prices rose for five consecutive days. As of October 7, Brent prices rose by 9.96 dollars/barrel, or 11.32%; WTI rose by 13.15 dollars/barrel, or 16.54%.

Downstream

3、 Future market expectation

The downstream demand of pure benzene has been repaired, and the short-term price is relatively strong under the support of crude oil. However, after the arrival of imported pure benzene, the port inventory continued to accumulate. If crude oil falls, pure benzene may weaken.

The price of zinc rose sharply after the festival

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 11, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 25736 yuan/ton, up 2.53% from 25100 yuan/ton on October 10, and up 4.15% from 24710 yuan/ton on September 30 before the festival. After the festival, the zinc price rose continuously, and the zinc market rose sharply.

Key points of analysis

Since late September, some zinc smelting enterprises in Yunnan have limited power and controlled production, and zinc smelting output is expected to decline. During the National Day, the increase in interest rates in the United States caused macroeconomic fluctuations. The expected growth of demand in the zinc market was insufficient; The output of zinc smelting by fermentation is expected to decline due to the continuous energy crisis in Europe, and LME discussed banning the acceptance of Russian metals. In general, the supply of zinc is expected to decline significantly, while the demand is still sluggish.

Future market forecast

Recently, the zinc market continues to be weak in both supply and demand, with limited support for zinc price rise. In the future, the demand of domestic zinc market is expected to recover in the long run due to the expectation of the twenty major policies, the silver market plus the implementation of real estate policies. In the future, the short-term zinc price fluctuated and consolidated, and the long-term zinc price rise was largely supported.

1、 Price summary on October 9:

Shijiazhuang Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7800 yuan/ton, Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7800 yuan/ton,

Yangba quoted 7950 yuan/ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan/ton,

Changling Refining&Chemical offered 8050 yuan/ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+meeting decided to cut the output by 2 million barrels per day from November on the basis of that in August. The OPEC+production cut decided to benefit the crude oil market. International oil prices rose continuously during the holiday.

Due to the strong trend of crude oil on the cost side, the toluene market was boosted, and the price rose positively. However, the demand for downstream chemical products is weak, and the gasoline market is soft due to the epidemic, which makes it difficult to support the demand side. After the price rises, it falls back in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the NMP price rose sharply in September. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the week was 23500 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 26566 yuan/ton, up 13.05%.

2、 Analysis and review

In September, the NMP market rose significantly. In the first half of the month, the market was relatively stable. The enterprises followed the trend and the prices were in line with the market. The mainstream quotation was around 22000-23000 yuan/ton. In the late September, the prices rose rapidly, the prices of upstream BDO and monomethylamine raw materials continued to rise, and the NMP prices rose with each passing day. At the end of September, the mainstream price of electronic NNP of the factory was around 27000 yuan/ton, the market inquiry was active, the market attention increased, and the trading was slightly active.

Upstream: In September, the domestic BDO market changed from a sluggish market, and the price rose significantly. The main reason is that the supply of equipment maintenance of the manufacturer is reduced, and a small number of high prices are auctioned to support the market, as well as the demand driven by the downstream manufacturers’ pre holiday stock. At the end of September, the mainstream negotiation of spot apron in South China was 14000-14500 yuan/ton, and the negotiation of barreled apron was 15000-16000 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance); In East China, 14000-14500 yuan/ton was negotiated for spot bulk water and 15000-16000 yuan/ton was negotiated for barreled bulk water (delivered by acceptance).

3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts from Business Agency believe that the current NMP market driving atmosphere has weakened, and the price of raw materials has stabilized. At the same time, considering the downstream reception, it is not expected that the NMP market will continue to rise significantly in the near future, mainly due to high level shocks.