According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has stopped falling and recovered. As of August 8, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10730 yuan/ton, ending the four month decline.

The price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has stopped falling and recovered. On the one hand, it is strongly supported by the raw material market, and on the other hand, the downstream refrigerant market has risen.

The market price of fluorite as hydrofluoric acid raw material has risen. As of August 8, the domestic fluorite price was 2868.75 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite has been tight. In addition, the logistics in some regions has been restricted and the spot supply is tight, so the domestic fluorite price has continued to rise. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation is 2850-2950 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite on the market has risen, and the price of hydrofluoric acid on the market has recovered due to the support of raw materials.

The market of downstream refrigerant products rose slightly, but the operating rate of the on-site refrigerant industry remained low, and the demand was mainly purchased on demand. At present, the price of refrigerant R22 has risen slightly, the market supply is normal, the demand for R22 market applications has increased slightly, and the enterprise quotation has risen slightly. As of August 8, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price trend rose, the trichloroethylene price rose, the cost support remained, and the R134a trading center increased slightly. At present, the R134a market quotation is between 25000-27000 yuan/ton, and the high price transaction is weak. The market sentiment is general. The actual transaction situation of the enterprise has not changed much. The downstream refrigerant market has risen slightly, which affects the price of hydrofluoric acid.

In the future, the fluorine chemical industry has improved, the price of raw materials fluorite has risen, the price of sulfuric acid raw materials has risen, and the drought of downstream refrigerant products has risen slightly. In addition, the domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly strained recently, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are well supported. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at the business community, believes that the price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market may rise slightly in the future.

Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in September

According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on September 30 was 18356.67 yuan/ton, up 1.01% daily, down 0.02% from the average market price of 18360 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (9.1), and down 18.92% from the average market price of 22640 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

At the peak price of 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 24240 yuan/ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value has dropped by 24.27%. The average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton from the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022), and the recent recovery is up 5.20%.

The aluminum price rose on the 30th, mainly because of market news that the London Metal Exchange (LME) may negotiate a ban on Russian metal trading. The price of Lunan Aluminum rose, and Shanghai Aluminum was also boosted. Drive spot aluminum prices up. It is reported that the annual capacity of RUSAL is about 4.5 million tons, accounting for about 6% of the total capacity of global electrolytic aluminum.

Fundamentals Overview

Domestic supply side: Yunnan has reduced the load, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to become tight; The production capacity of Sichuan and Chongqing is under recovery, and it will take time to fully recover. According to the aluminum output data in September, the weekly output has decreased month on month.

From the output data, due to the nationwide high temperature and dry weather in August, as well as the shortage of upstream water, the hydropower station was limited. Sichuan took the lead in reducing production, which was about 980000 tons. In late August, Yunnan was short of water and electricity. Since June, the upstream water has been short. According to the communication with the aluminum plant, the current production limit in Yunnan is about 22% – 25%, which is about 1.3 million tons, Production may be further reduced in the future; As for the resumption of production, the probability of resumption of production is also small at present. On the one hand, although Sichuan has the enthusiasm to resume production, hydropower is still tight, and electrolytic aluminum smelting in Guangxi has lost money. Yunnan will stop production until the end of the dry season in June 2023.

On the overseas supply side, the European region announced a production capacity reduction of about 300000 tons this year. With the production capacity reduction of about 950000 tons in the fourth quarter of last year, the decline was significant. Recently, the electrolytic aluminum enterprises under Hydro announced production reduction due to declining demand.

On the domestic demand side, according to the inventory data, as of the 29th, the social inventory in the domestic mainstream regions was around 610000 tons, which has decreased slightly in the recent month on month. In terms of terminal demand, the demand for real estate is relatively weak, and the consumption data of durable consumer goods is beginning to improve. In particular, the performance of the air conditioning production data in August turned positive year on year. The automobile and photovoltaic fields remain strong, and the consumption in the fourth quarter will not be ruled out to improve.

Future market forecast

The bearish expectation caused by the early macro pessimism was the main factor for the price decline in late September. Fundamentally, under the impact of the production reduction news, plus the London Metal Exchange (LME) news, the impact of macro factors on aluminum prices began to fade.

In the short term, the aluminum price will be supported by periodic production reduction, and we will wait to see whether the actual demand in the downstream will turn warmer. It is expected that the aluminum price will be subject to strong and wide shocks in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic TDI price trend continued to rise in September. The average TDI market price at the beginning of the month was 17575 yuan/ton, and the average TDI price at the end of the month was 19600 yuan/ton. It rose 2025 yuan/ton in the month, an overall increase of 11.52%. As of September 29, the delivery of domestic goods with tickets is around 19700-19900 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is around 19900-20100 yuan/ton.

In September, the TDI market ran strongly, and prices rose widely in the month. At the beginning of the month, the trend of TDI continued to rise in August. The overseas supply was tight, and the market demand was strong. In addition, the domestic downstream demand was weak, and the deals were mostly purchased on demand. The focus of factory delivery shifted to the overseas market, and the domestic supply was limited. The market supply was tight, and the holders were reluctant to sell, and the TDI price rose at a high level; The factory was closed in the middle of the year, orders were not received in the late of the year, and maintenance plans were released. The suppliers were very price conscious, and the TDI market continued to rise; At the end of the month, the listed price of large factories in October was announced to rise, which again boosted the market mentality, and the TDI price rose.

The upstream toluene market was shocked and lowered, with the price at the end of the month at 7700 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month at 7730 yuan/ton, an overall drop of 0.39%. The price trend rose in the first ten days, the supply of toluene was tight, in addition, the gasoline rose actively in the peak season, the demand support remained, and the toluene market was operating at a high price; In the middle of the year, due to the impact of public health events in many places, the logistics and transportation are limited, the gasoline market is weak, the toluene market is light in trading and trading, and the price trend is downward; In the last ten days, the market rose first and then fell. Crude oil rebounded and gasoline rose slightly, which was good for the toluene market. However, the negotiations on the floor were weak. In addition, the price of toluene in East China was lowered by Sinopec.

According to the TDI data analyst of the business agency, many factories in China are limited in supply. The TDI market is tight in supply, and the supplier has a strong sentiment of price fixing. Although the downstream demand is weak, the replenishment sentiment before the festival is not good. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the supplier still plays a leading role. The spot goods on the market are tight, and the goods holders are reluctant to sell. In addition to the guidance of the factory news, the TDI price rises strongly before the festival. It is expected that the TDI market will settle at a high level, and the price range will fluctuate, Pay special attention to the downstream follow-up.

Price trends: on September 28, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 7900 yuan/ton, Shijiazhuang Petrochemical 7900 yuan/ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical 7900 yuan/ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton;

South China: Hainan Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7850 yuan/ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene quoted 7850 yuan/ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical quoted 8100 yuan/ton, Jingbo Petrochemical 7980 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical 7950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical 7903 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 7900 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical 8050 yuan/ton.

Analysis and comments: For crude oil, the OPEC+meeting is coming, and the market expects that the meeting policy may be aimed at reducing supply; Before the arrival of Hurricane Ian, the supply in the US Gulf region was limited, and international oil prices rebounded yesterday.

Today, Weilian Chemical lowered the price of pure benzene by 100 yuan/ton; Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 50 yuan/ton.

Styrene continued to weaken, pure benzene negotiation in East China was weak, and there was demand in the downstream of Shandong, but due to arbitrage, the industry was cautious. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 7850-8100 yuan/ton.

In September, the domestic EVA market price changed from a weak point to a significant increase. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 19200.00 yuan/ton on September 1 and 20666.67 yuan/ton on September 27. The increase in September was 7.64%, down 20.92% compared with the same period last year.

In September, the domestic EVA market was dominated by price adjustment, with only a small decline at the end of the month (27), and the overall upward range was obvious, dominated by positive factors in the month. The EVA market entered the downward channel in late May, and the weakness continued until the end of August. As the price fell to a relatively low level, the downstream market entered on bargain hunting, and the market trading atmosphere improved. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises has been raised periodically, which has brought obvious support in terms of cost. In addition, the rising supply of auction goods also brings some support to the market. However, at present, the market demand for photovoltaic materials is relatively flat, while the market demand for foaming materials is general, and the lack of demand has brought some restraint to the rising market.

To sum up, at the end of September, the international crude oil was weak and the raw material side was negative. There is no obvious change in supply, but the demand needs to be improved. The downstream is cautious, and the market trading atmosphere is general. However, the falling space of EVA price is relatively limited at present, and the firm price of petrochemical enterprises provides some support. It is expected that in the short term, the price of domestic EVA market will mainly be adjusted in a narrow range, and the downstream demand needs to be concerned in the long term.