1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1548 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1546 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.49%. On December 30th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.49% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.25% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1750 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1556 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% and a decrease of 44.87% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25882 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.52% compared to the zinc price of 25494 yuan/ton on December 23rd.

This week’s market analysis

This week, due to the closure of the foreign market during the Christmas holiday, the overall performance of the domestic market showed a relatively stable trend, with a slight rebound.

Macro policy orientation: Recently, the National Financial Work Conference emphasized that one of the focus areas in 2025 will be to support and expand domestic demand, while vigorously boosting the consumer market to promote sustained and healthy economic development.

Fundamentals

From an industry perspective, some mines in certain regions of China have implemented production reduction measures, resulting in ongoing supply pressure on the mining sector. As a result, the raw material inventory of refineries is limited to a certain extent, which in turn maintains production at a relatively weak level. However, there are signs of a slight increase in processing fees both domestically and internationally.

Demand side

In terms of demand, the downstream market has not yet fully recovered from the impact of the off-season, and the overall demand performance is average, lacking significant growth momentum.

Inventory situation

It is worth noting that the social inventory in the zinc market is currently at a low level and showing a decreasing trend. Affected by this, zinc prices may maintain a high volatility trend in the short term, lacking significant upward or downward momentum.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, the domestic market has shown a relatively stable operating trend this week under the combined influence of macro and fundamental factors. In the future, with further clarification of policy guidance and gradual recovery of market demand, the industry may usher in new changes and opportunities.

In December 2024, the price of nylon filament first rose and then fell along with the raw materials. In the first half of the month, the price of pure benzene rose, and the supply of caprolactam in the market decreased. Coupled with the continuous production of slicing manufacturers, market confidence was boosted. The weekly closing price of caprolactam by Sinopec slightly increased, and the cost side support was relatively strong. However, due to the lack of significant improvement in demand, the actual transaction volume on the market was limited, and the market price of nylon filament was adjusted and operated after a narrow increase driven by the rise in cost. In the second half of the year, the price of pure benzene showed a significant decline, while the inventory of caprolactam in the market increased. Sinopec’s weekly closing price of caprolactam was significantly reduced, and the PA6 chip high-speed spinning chip market continued to decline, with a lack of cost support. As the end of the year approached, downstream factories had insufficient order volume, and most of them had plans to reduce production and vacation in advance. Their enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials was not high. In addition, the decline in raw material prices intensified the bearish mentality of the industry, and the demand side showed signs of fatigue. Under the dual negative factors, the price of nylon filament market was under pressure and fell. Overall, the raw material market prices continue to bottom out, and there is a certain degree of risk aversion in downstream markets. There is currently no positive news to support the market, and the price center of the nylon filament market has shifted downwards.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of nylon filament in December 2024 followed the rise and then fall of raw materials, with a significant overall decline. As of December 30, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was quoted at 17080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton or 1.27% from the beginning of the month; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.51%.

Raw materials continue to decline

Upstream pure benzene first rose and then fell, while the cost of the caprolactam market remained high. Within the month, the supply of caprolactam market was relatively abundant, and downstream demand did not follow up as expected. The trading atmosphere in the market was weak, and the overall caprolactam market showed weakness. In terms of settlement price, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam settled at 11660 yuan/ton in December (liquid premium product accepted for self pickup in June), an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the settlement in November. As of December 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 10903 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.42%. The market for high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips has experienced a significant decline, with prices on the raw material side showing a downward trend, with a monthly decrease of 1.45%.

Supply and demand: In December, the overall supply of nylon filament market increased slightly. The newly added production capacity in the nylon fiber market continued to be released within the month, and the on-site supply gradually increased. The supply side performance was relatively loose, and the nylon filament market started operating at around 8.4% per month. Downstream market demand is limited, and negative factors dominate the market, resulting in a weak downward trend in the price of nylon filament.

2、 Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, there is some support on the cost side, and the supply of caprolactam in the market has slightly recovered. Some sellers have a mentality of holding up prices, and the demand side is expected to gradually carry out pre holiday stocking. It is expected that the caprolactam market will rise slightly next month; In terms of nylon PA6 chips, there is an upward expectation on the cost side, and downstream manufacturers may have the possibility of buying from the bottom to replenish. However, there are still some manufacturers who are bearish on the market after the new year and cautious in their purchases. It is expected that the PA6 chip market will have a weak trend next month. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of nylon filament raw materials will fluctuate next month, with limited cost support.

Supply side: As the Spring Festival approaches, various nylon filament manufacturers may gradually reduce production and have a holiday in mid to late January, resulting in a significant decrease in on-site supply. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of nylon filament in the market will decrease next month.

On the demand side: The demand in the terminal market is light, coupled with the end of the year, downstream factories are in the final stage, and their enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. Most downstream manufacturers plan to shut down and take a vacation in mid January, and the demand may significantly decrease. Therefore, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side in the nylon filament market next month will be weak.

Overall, the market price of raw material caprolactam may rise narrowly, while the market price of PA6 chips may decline. The cost side trend is inconsistent, and there is a possibility of a decrease in on-site supply. However, the downstream market order volume is insufficient, and the willingness to replenish is weak, making it difficult for the demand side to have positive support. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market price will mainly decline next month.

This week (December 23-27, 2024), the inventory pressure of upstream raw material caprolactam led to a price decline, and the demand side did not follow up well. The nylon filament market continued to be weak, and negative factors dominated the market. Nylon filament prices followed the decline of raw materials and hit a new low for the year.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, this week (December 23-27, 2024), the market price of nylon filament followed the decline of raw materials. As of December 27, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region was quoted at 17080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 1.61%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 1.35% compared to last week. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.38%.

Raw materials continue to decline

This week (December 23-27, 2024), the upstream raw material caprolactam plant for nylon filament was operating normally, with sustained high inventory and low downstream purchasing willingness. The trading atmosphere was calm, and the caprolactam market price continued to decline. Lack of confidence in the industrial chain, shrinking actual trading volume in the nylon PA6 chip market, with no positive support from both upstream and downstream, and insufficient confidence among industry players. As of December 27th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 10937 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.91%.

Supply demand

The operating rate of nylon filament market equipment is relatively high, currently operating at around 8.4%. The inventory of various manufacturers continues to accumulate, and the overall supply performance on site is loose, with average supply side support; There is still no significant improvement in demand in the terminal market, and downstream yarn factories have a certain degree of risk aversion. They hold onto multiple essential orders, and it is difficult to find positive support from the demand side during the week.

Future forecast

The market for nylon filament raw material caprolactam is expected to continue its downward trend, with high inventory pressure and continued pressure on the supply side. Spot prices are weakly stable and consolidating, and market sentiment is bearish. The industry chain is mostly pessimistic, and terminal market demand remains weak. Negative factors in the market dominate, and analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and hydrogen fluoride has remained stable this month, with some enterprises experiencing slight increases. As of December 26th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: The price of fluorite raw material has decreased this month. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3647.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.75% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

On the demand side, the domestic refrigerant market saw an increase in December. Some varieties have seen a significant increase in price, while demand remains strong. However, as the end of the year approaches, other downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm and mainly execute previous orders, with some devices operating at reduced loads. Maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Market forecast: The domestic hydrogen fluoride market will start operating at 55.9% in December, a decrease of 4.2% compared to November. As the end of the year approaches, although the downstream refrigerant market demand is good, the consumption of other downstream products has decreased. Overall, the demand is good, and it is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will fluctuate and remain stable next month. More attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises, and there is a possibility of market recovery after the year.