According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on December 11th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 11990 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in December, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed an overall weak downward trend. On the first few days of the month, the overall weakness and consolidation of the silicon metal spot market resulted in a general atmosphere within the market. On the 9th and 10th, the spot market for metallic silicon in most parts of China experienced a cooling trend and fell, including the market prices of metallic silicon 553 # (oxygen supply), 553 # (non oxygen supply), 441 #, 421 #, 3303 #, 99 #, and other foreign silicon. The extent of the price reduction varied depending on the region and brand. Among them, the metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area will be reduced by 150 yuan/ton, the metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin Port area will be reduced by 100 yuan/ton, and the metal silicon 441 # in Shanghai area will be reduced by 150 yuan/ton. As of December 11th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11500-12350 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material silica: Recently, the upstream raw material silica market for metallic silicon has been operating steadily. The reference factory price for high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is around 360-390 yuan/ton, and the reference factory price for low-grade silica ore is around 260-280 yuan/ton. The reference factory price for high-grade silica in Hubei region is 420-450 yuan/ton, while in Guangxi region it is 370-380 yuan/ton. The stable silica market provides support and stability for the market of metallic silicon.

In terms of raw material silicon coal: Recently, the silicon coal market in some regions of China has experienced a narrow downward trend, which has slightly loosened the cost support for metallic silicon. The market price of silicon coal (middling coal) in Xinjiang is stable, and the price reference is around 1150-1170 yuan/ton. The market price of Ningxia silicon coal (granular coal) has been lowered, with a reference price of 1510-1530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia silicon coal market is temporarily stable, with a reference price of around 1260-1270 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream organic silicon DMC: Currently, the overall market for metal silicon downstream organic silicon DMC is stable and operating, with reference prices around 12500-13500 yuan/ton in the organic silicon DMC market.

In terms of production and supply: According to incomplete statistics, China’s metal silicon production in November was about 405000 tons, a decrease of 65000 tons compared to the previous month, a decrease of about 13.9%. The cumulative reference for metal silicon production from January to November 2024 is 4.567 million tons, an increase of 1.115 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of about 32.3%. Entering December, the expected production of metallic silicon is expected to decrease, and the operating rate of the silicon industry in Sichuan Yunnan region is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that Sichuan region will enter a period of weak operating and production in December. The leading enterprises in Xinjiang have reduced production twice in early December, and the decline in production directly affects the supply of silicon metal. Currently, the overall supply in the market has slightly decreased.

On the demand side: Currently, the trading atmosphere in the silicon metal market is relatively weak, and downstream users have a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly purchasing on demand, with fewer new orders being transacted.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the metal silicon market is gradually entering the off-season for the whole year, and the on-site operating rate of metal silicon is gradually dropping to the lowest level for the whole year. Currently, the overall supply and demand of the metal silicon market are weak. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly experience narrow adjustments, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be monitored.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the DOP price was 8826.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.35% compared to the DOP price of 9038.75 yuan/ton on December 1st. The equipment of isooctanol enterprises is operating normally, the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and falling, the cost of plasticizers is decreasing, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, and the demand for plasticizers is falling, causing the price of plasticizer DOP to fluctuate and fall.

Downstream demand declines

Downstream PVC product enterprises have low production rates, and the downstream market is traditionally off-season, resulting in a decrease in downstream PVC production. The weather in the north is gradually turning cold, and demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

The cost of raw materials fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the price of isooctanol was 8600 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.84% compared to the price of 9133.33 yuan/ton on December 1st. In December, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises started working normally, and the supply of isooctanol was sufficient. The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. In the off-season of the market, there is insufficient support for demand for isooctanol, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient, resulting in weak demand and fluctuating prices of isooctanol.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has continued to decline; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The off-season is approaching, demand is decreasing, costs are falling, and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PET bottle chip market price fluctuated weakly this week. As of December 6th, its average market price was 6120 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of cost, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out this week that the market supply situation is slightly unstable, and the demand outlook is not very clear. On the eve of the OPEC meeting, the market is generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, leading to a fluctuating downward trend in international oil prices, which has a negative impact on the cost side. Nevertheless, the quotations from polyester bottle chip factories remain firm, and the actual negotiation focus in the market remains stable. Subsequently, the market remained optimistic about the expectation of OPEC+delaying production increases, providing support for the market and leading to a rebound in international crude oil prices. However, due to the unexpected increase in US refined oil inventories, international oil prices were under pressure and some of the gains were reversed, leading to a decrease in polyester raw material prices and a cost negative impact on the polyester bottle chip market, resulting in a decline in its market focus.

In terms of demand, downstream and end users still hold a wait-and-see attitude, and their enthusiasm for participating in the market is not high, mainly to meet low-level rigid demand, with limited actual trading volume. Therefore, the PET market as a whole lacks sufficient momentum.

Overall, the weak cost continues, and downstream procurement is cautious. There is currently no positive market support, and the industry’s profit recovery is difficult. It is expected that the polyester vibrating plate market will fluctuate within a certain range next week. The price operating space in the East China market is between 6050-6200 yuan/ton, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to the trends of the crude oil and PTA markets,

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of this week.

Raw material side: The price of raw material fluorite has risen this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, domestic fluorite prices have risen this week. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fluorite was 3678.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Maintain stability in the downstream refrigerant market. Some factories have offered price increases. Affected by quota management and maintenance plans, most units in the refrigerant industry entered a shutdown state in December, and the operating load gradually decreased, resulting in a continued cold atmosphere towards raw material procurement.

Market forecast: The raw material market prices will rise, and downstream demand based procurement will be the main focus. We will adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw material procurement. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated in November, with a slight overall increase. On November 1st, the market price of aniline was 9100 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the price was 9337 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.61% during the month and a decrease of 24.39% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The aniline market in November was dominated by supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a range. In the first half of the month, the on-site equipment came to a halt, which boosted the news and pushed up the upstream market, resulting in an increase in aniline prices. In the middle of the month, parking facilities resumed operation, and the demand for gas in the venue weakened, leading to a stagnant market and consolidation. At the end of the month, the market ushered in a new round of maintenance equipment restart, and the price of aniline fell sharply. Subsequently, the price of raw materials rose, and downstream companies entered the market at a low price, resulting in improved purchasing power. After the price of aniline fell, it rebounded,

Pure benzene: In November, the pure benzene market rose in a climbing manner. The overall supply of pure benzene in November was loose, and there was a lot of pressure on imported goods. Downstream traders entered the market at a low price. There was a wave of rise in the second half of the month, but the momentum for further increase was insufficient. At the end of the month, the market turned from rising to falling. On November 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7109 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the average price of pure benzene was 7362 yuan/ton, with a 3.09% increase during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current favorable support for the aniline market is insufficient, and the raw material pure benzene is showing a weak trend. At the same time, downstream demand is sluggish, and the mentality of industry players is not good. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.