1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weakly consolidated in August. From August 1st to 30th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 10100.00 yuan/ton to 9866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 233.33 yuan or 2.31%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.27%.

The raw material pure benzene fluctuated and rose, and the listing prices of major production enterprises have rebounded. Downstream chemical fiber procurement is on demand, and the supply of goods is stable. However, due to the weak industry mentality, the market transaction center has weakened.

2、 Market analysis

Cost aspect: In August, the domestic pure benzene market situation was sorted and operated. As of August 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society was 8613.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the beginning of this month (8438.00 yuan/ton). Compared to 9318.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of July, the price has decreased by 705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57%. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%, and the market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone. The cost aspect of cyclohexanone is well supported.

Supply side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 70%. The supply of products is relatively balanced.

On the demand side: In August, the domestic caprolactam market fluctuated and rose, with downstream caprolactam production being the main focus of cyclohexanone plants. Caprolactam is one of the most important downstream producers of cyclohexanone. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated upwards. Some caprolactam companies have raised their quotations. Downstream on-demand procurement, with average terminal demand. As of August 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 12828.33 yuan/ton. The temporary storage of demand for cyclohexanone is favorable.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material pure benzene fluctuated upwards, with good cost support and favorable downstream temporary storage. Analysts from Shengyi Society predict that domestic cyclohexanone will fluctuate upwards within a range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market experienced a volatile downward trend in August 2024. From August 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 7390 yuan/ton to 6840 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.44% during the period.

Mid to early month: The toluene market continued to operate weakly in this cycle, with market prices fluctuating downward. During this period, the decline in crude oil prices dragged down market sentiment, and the overall market atmosphere was bearish. The overall demand is weak, the purchasing enthusiasm of the gasoline blending industry is low, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is low. Coupled with the weakening of the macro level, the market has a strong atmosphere, and the toluene market has continued to decline.

Late month: The toluene market continued to operate weakly, with Sinopec’s ex factory prices continuously decreasing, dragging down market sentiment and causing a wide decline in spot market prices. In terms of supply, toluene has arrived at ports in East and South China, causing a slight accumulation of inventory and dragging down market sentiment. The overall demand is weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the gasoline blending industry is low. Downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand, and under the influence of negative factors on the supply side, market prices continue to operate at a low level.

Cost wise: In August 2024, the crude oil market maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the month, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In early August, due to OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day production reduction, it will be implemented until the end of September. However, from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Starting from mid August, the crude oil market began to rise significantly due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the easing of geopolitical conflicts. Overall, the crude oil market fluctuated within a range. Looking ahead, crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel; The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.58 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered multiple times during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude of each underground adjustment. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of August 30th, East China Company quoted 6800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6800-6850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6950 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On August 30th, Sinopec executed a price of 8050 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to July 2024. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $927-929/ton as of August 29th, a cumulative decrease of $65/ton from $993/ton at the end of July.

During this period, the overseas market for toluene in Asia has significantly decreased. As of August 29th, the closing price of FOB Korea in September was 814-816 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 37 US dollars per ton; The closing price of CFR China in September is $823-825 per ton, a decrease of $61 per ton.

Market forecast: The toluene market will continue to decline in August, and the current price has fallen to a new low for the year. Although the crude oil market will strengthen to some extent at the end of the month, the boost to the market will be limited. In terms of supply, with the recent commissioning of some early maintenance facilities in the northern region, the overall supply of toluene in the northern region is relatively loose, while in the southern region, there are more incoming goods at the end of the month, and the overall supply in the region is relatively loose. Under the influence of loose supply, the current toluene market atmosphere is weak. There has been no significant improvement in demand recently, and downstream companies will continue to replenish inventory as needed. Overall, negative factors in the toluene market still dominate, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on downstream demand.

In August, the market for ethyl acetate showed a weak downward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.22% compared to the beginning of the month price of 6216.67 yuan/ton. The main reason for the weak demand side, limited upstream support, and bearish supply mentality led to a weak decline in the price of ethyl acetate.

Market analysis: This month, the overall market price of ethyl acetate has declined. The price continued to decline in the first half of the month, mainly due to the stable raw material market, insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand, resulting in a continuous decline in the ethyl acetate market; In the second half of the month, the price of raw material acetic acid rose sharply, which had a positive impact on the cost side and led to a rebound in the price of ethyl acetate. However, with the decrease in raw material prices, the cost advantage disappeared, and coupled with flat downstream demand, the market support was insufficient. The atmosphere in the market was bearish again, and the price of ethyl acetate fell.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of August 30th, the price was 3350 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.75% compared to the acetic acid price of 3325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side first rose and then fell, with limited cost support. The acetic acid market continues to transmit to the end, affecting the weak performance of downstream ethyl esters.

Looking at the future market, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate continues to decline, with a negative impact on the cost side. At the same time, the bidding prices of the main factories of ethyl acetate continue to decrease, leading to a lack of confidence in the future market. Downstream companies follow up as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is quiet. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will be weak and orderly in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw materials such as acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose in August 2024. From August 1st to 29th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 12662.50 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.07% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the butadiene market continued to operate weakly, and downstream market demand remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment. The overall market performance was weak, dragging down market quotes. On the supply side, this week’s quoted goods increased compared to the previous period, and the market supply was relatively loose. Under the dual weak supply and demand pattern, the butadiene market trend was relatively weak.

Mid month: The butadiene market experienced narrow fluctuations, with a slight rebound in market prices, but the magnitude was limited. During the week, some enterprises in Shandong region suspended their export plans, which led to a slight rebound in spot market prices in the region and indirectly affected the slight increase in market quotes in East China. However, downstream market demand has remained lukewarm, with limited support for market sentiment, resulting in limited overall volatility.

Late of the month: The butadiene market began to rebound in late of the month, with tight supply in some areas of Shandong and Jiangsu. Holders of goods showed strong reluctance to sell, and prices continued to rise. As the price difference between the north and south gradually widened, the East China market heated up. In terms of downstream demand, the synthetic rubber market has performed well recently, with stable prices and occasional increases, which has once again boosted market sentiment. As of the 29th, the self pickup price in East China is around 12700-12800 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: In August 2024, the crude oil market maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the month, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In early August, due to OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day production reduction, it will be implemented until the end of September. However, from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Starting from mid August, the crude oil market began to rise significantly due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the easing of geopolitical conflicts. Overall, the crude oil market fluctuated within a range. Looking ahead, crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been raised twice in a row to 13000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative increase of 500 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th and is scheduled to restart in early September; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 tons/year butadiene plant shut down on August 25th and is expected to restart in October. Downstream supporting facilities will also shut down simultaneously, with limited impact on the market; Since the shutdown and restart of Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene unit in early August, the current operating rate is relatively low. Overall, there are many equipment maintenance tasks, and the supply of butadiene in the market is relatively tight.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 15040 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2.7% from 14890 yuan/ton on August 1st. Especially since late August, the overall price of butadiene rubber has risen significantly, with a slight increase in the high price of raw material butadiene; Shunding rubber production has increased; Downstream tire production has slightly increased. The supply price of butadiene rubber has been gradually raised recently, and as of August 28th, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber for PetroChina Northeast Sales Company is 15000 yuan/ton.

External market: The August butadiene market experienced mixed fluctuations, with FOB prices in South Korea ranging from $1445-1455 per ton as of August 27th; China CFR reports $1465-1475 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1115-1125 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1085-1095 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply of butadiene in the market is tight, and holders have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices. Market offers continue to rise at the end of the month. The downstream synthetic rubber market has been continuously rising in market prices since the end of August, which has given a strong boost to the butadiene market. Currently, low-priced sources of goods are difficult to find in the market, and downstream suppliers are still replenishing inventory as needed. Overall, with the boost of favorable supply and demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will have a strong trend in the short term, and downstream transactions will be the focus of attention in the future.

The phthalic anhydride market remained sluggish in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The prices of raw materials have been continuously falling, and the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined several times in August, resulting in a sustained downturn in the phthalic anhydride market. At the end of August, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7500-7700 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: Stable supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a production rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In August, the price of industrial naphthalene stabilized strongly, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride stabilized. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride fell, and cost support decreased. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride fell.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has dropped for three consecutive times

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of ortho benzene was 7900 yuan/ton, a triple decline of 7.06% compared to the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, and the cost of raw materials for phthalic anhydride has decreased, resulting in significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride. Industrial naphthalene manufacturers have reduced their burden and pressure, resulting in a tight supply. Industrial naphthalene is experiencing a narrow range of price increases, and there is a strong willingness for the rise of naphthalene phthalic anhydride. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are losing money, and they have a strong willingness to raise prices. The downward pressure on neighboring phthalic anhydride raw materials is increasing, and neighboring phthalic anhydride prices are weakly consolidating.

Demand side: DOP market hits bottom

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78% from the DOP price of 9500 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month. Jinjiu is approaching, terminal demand is slowly recovering, raw material octanol prices have stopped falling and rebounded, costs have stopped falling, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for placing orders has rebounded, plasticizer transaction willingness has increased, and plasticizer DOP prices have stopped falling and rebounded.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of demand, the downstream DOP market has rebounded and stopped falling, while the demand for plasticizers has slightly rebounded. In the future, with cost reduction and weak demand, it is expected that the neighboring phthalic anhydride market will remain weak and stabilize.