According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China rose in early December. As of December 2, the average price of 85% formic acid in China was 2925 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.41% from the same period last month at 2775 yuan/ton.

Raw material side: The main futures of raw material methanol have risen, and spot prices at ports have increased accordingly. The trading atmosphere in the mainland market is good, and local production has declined. In addition, factory inventories have remained at a low level, which is supported by favorable raw material inventory, and the price center has shifted upward.

Supply side: Some of the facilities of the largest domestic formic acid manufacturer have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in tight supply. Overall production has remained at a relatively low level, and the amount of spot goods on site has decreased, providing favorable support for the supply side.

Demand side: Many downstream manufacturers of formic acid have a strong demand for purchasing, and the demand side has limited support for formic acid prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that due to the reduction in supply and the strong operation of raw materials, the formic acid market will operate steadily, but will not have a significant increase due to demand constraints. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the trend of raw materials and downstream markets.

In November 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable operation. During the month, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market remained stable, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market rose and then fell back. The sulfuric acid market continued to rise in price, and the cost side trend was upward; In terms of supply, various manufacturers of adhesive short fibers are operating at high loads, with high on-site supply. However, the overall inventory level in the market is low, and some models are in short supply, with good support from the supply side; The peak demand season has ended, but the demand in the terminal market has not improved. The downstream yarn market has insufficient orders, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not good. Therefore, we are holding onto the demand for essential goods. Overall, the price center of the upstream raw material market has slightly shifted upward, with cost support remaining. Some of the on-site sources of goods are tight, and the supply side provides some upward momentum for the market. However, downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and under the interweaving of on-site news, the price of the adhesive short fiber market continues to remain stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month and increased by 7.13% compared to the beginning of the year.

In terms of cost: the market price of the main raw material dissolution slurry is running steadily, the market price of the auxiliary material liquid alkali is declining narrowly, the market price of sulfuric acid is steadily rising, the cost center of gravity is shifting upward, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers is increasing.

Supply demand: During the month, most of the adhesive short fiber manufacturers’ equipment has been operating stably, and the industry supply is still at a high level. In November, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry was around 84.62%, but the overall inventory level on site is still low, and there is currently no inventory pressure. The downstream cotton yarn market has an average speed of shipment and prices are stagnant and consolidating. The demand in the terminal market is unlikely to improve, and yarn mills often sign orders to maintain normal machine operation, with insufficient support from the demand side.

Market forecast:

The adhesive short fiber market has a high production rate and tight delivery, and there is still demand for the dissolution slurry market. Therefore, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market may have strong prices, and the inventory level in the field may continue to be low; Downstream cotton yarn enterprises tend to purchase according to demand, and as we enter the end of the year, downstream yarn factories have low stocking enthusiasm, and there is a possibility of a decrease in demand for adhesive short fibers. Both positive and negative factors coexist. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market price will decline narrowly next month, with a decline of around 100-300 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak recently (11.18-11.27). As of November 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market is around 16709 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from 16590 yuan/ton on November 18th, with a high point of 16823 yuan/ton during the cycle. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high and have fallen. As of November 27th, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 Thai baht/kg, a slight increase from 68.10 Thai baht/kg on November 19th; As of November 27th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 17300 yuan/ton, which is higher than the 17000 yuan/ton on November 19th.

Maintain a certain inventory of natural rubber. As of November 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 423500 tons, which was basically the same as the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of November 22, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.3%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are fluctuating at high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has stopped rising in the short term; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 850 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 821 yuan/ton on November 27th. This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 3.33%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. In early November, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market weakened and declined, and the focus of transactions shifted downwards. Downstream inquiries have decreased, demand has weakened, and coupled with the poor performance of ammonium sulfate exports, ammonium sulfate continues to operate weakly. In mid to late November, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate slowly rose. The downstream demand has increased, and the transaction price of ammonium sulfate market has risen. However, the international market for ammonium sulfate has not improved yet and remains mainly weak. As of November 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-860 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from September 2, 2024 to November 18, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate fell significantly in November, with the largest drop being -5.69% in the week of November 4th.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the trading atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market has been improving recently, with downstream urgent purchases resulting in a slight increase in domestic prices. However, the export market remains weak. It is expected that the short-term domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience a narrow adjustment in price.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 26th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6670 yuan/ton, which is 1.04% lower than the reference average price of 6740 yuan/ton on November 20th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 26th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6983 yuan/ton, which is 0.24% lower than the reference average of 7000 yuan/ton on November 20th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

The domestic phosphoric acid market is trending downwards this week. As of November 26th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6450-6800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6650-6850 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7150 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has weakened and fallen. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is light, with limited market transactions and an increasing downstream mentality of buying up rather than buying down. Short term domestic yellow phosphorus prices are expected to weaken and consolidate.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable, maintaining a high level of temporary stability. Downstream on-demand procurement ensures stable shipment of phosphate ore. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the spot supply of phosphoric acid in the market is still acceptable, but the demand is flat. The main focus is on issuing preliminary orders. Downstream on-demand procurement, most still maintain a wait-and-see attitude. There is currently no significant fluctuation in short-term market supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been declining recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream urgent procurement has led to a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, resulting in a decrease in trading volume. It is expected that in the short term, the phosphoric acid market will observe the trend of raw materials and focus on weak prices and consolidation operations.