1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1996 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61% and an increase of 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On July 31, the light soda ash commodity index was 97.64, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 48.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 54.62% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has continued to decline this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash remains high, the market inventory is sufficient, the production and sales of enterprises are average, and inventory continues to accumulate; On the demand side, the terminal market continues to be weak, and downstream purchases are mostly following up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash is weakly declining. As of July 31, 2024, the price of soda ash in East China has continued to decline, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1750-2000 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is weakly stable, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1700-1850 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have continued to decline this month, with an average market price of 19.05 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the month and 17.24 yuan/square meter at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.50%. The spot prices in the glass market continue to be weak, downstream demand for essential purchases is weak, market demand is weak, on-site trading is poor, and the price market is weak and falling.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 30th week of 2024 (7.22-7.26), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: calcium carbide (0.62%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-2.10%), PVC (-0.80%), and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.42%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has been weak and stable in the near future, and the spot alkali plant equipment is operating normally, with sufficient supply of goods. The downstream market continues to be weak, with sluggish procurement entering the market and multidimensional demand replenishment. The inventory of soda ash has generally decreased, and it is expected that soda ash will consolidate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2321 yuan/ton, which is 6.60% lower than the reference average price of 2485 yuan/ton on July 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In July, the domestic urea market prices fell weakly, but rebounded at the end of the month. As of July 31st, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2130-2150 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2150 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2150 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from May 6, 2024 to July 22, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. There was a significant decline in July, with the largest drop being -2.62% in the week of July 15th.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market currently has a relatively sufficient supply, with oversupply being the main factor. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, while industrial demand is low. The operating rate and market of downstream compound fertilizers remain stable, and the demand for urea remains stable, with many low-priced transactions. At the end of the month, the market trading direction was good, and the urea market slightly rebounded.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market trend has been improving recently, with an increase in market inquiries and an improved trading atmosphere. But downstream demand is still relatively low, waiting for the release of terminal demand. Expected short-term consolidation of domestic urea market prices.

The price of isooctanol in July hit a new low within a year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the price of isooctanol was 8966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.66% compared to the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to January 1st, the price dropped by 12950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.76%. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, reaching a new low for the year at the end of the month. On July 30th, the price of isooctanol was at its lowest point in a year. In July, isooctanol companies started operating at a high level, downstream buying decreased, and high-end market offers came under pressure. Shandong factories voluntarily lowered prices to ship, and isooctanol prices hit a new low in a year.

Supply factors

In July, the isooctanol plant in the northwest region resumed normal production. The isooctanol plant in Zibo, Shandong has a plan to start production, and isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. Downstream buying has slowed down, high-end market offers are under pressure, Shandong factory has lowered prices for shipments, plasticizer market transactions are poor, and the atmosphere for new orders in the isooctanol market continues to be weak. The rise in isooctanol prices has provided weak support.

Demand factors

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to January 1st, the DOP price dropped by 21.23% to 12091.67 yuan/ton. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in July. On July 30th, the price was at its lowest point in a year, a decrease of 2691.67 yuan/ton or 22.03% from the highest price of 12216.67 yuan/ton in a year. In the third quarter, plasticizers were in the off-season of market consumption, and plasticizer factories were also cautious about purchasing raw material octanol. Customers bought in at low prices and concentrated on short-term replenishment to support market prices. However, the upward support was insufficient, and the market lacked sustained upward momentum.

Cost factors

According to the Business Society’s propylene commodity market analysis system, as of July 30th, the price of propylene was 7088.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and consolidated compared to the price of 7133.25 yuan/ton on July 1st, with a decrease of 0.63%; Compared to January 1st, the price of propylene was 6868.25 yuan/ton, fluctuating and rising by 3.20%. The price of propylene fluctuated and consolidated in July, reaching a high level in 24 years. Some enterprises have reduced their load operation, resulting in a decline in production capacity utilization rate, and manufacturers’ offers remain firm. The propylene market is operating steadily with a moderate to strong trend, while the cost of octanol is strongly supported.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, propylene prices are consolidating at a high level, while isooctanol costs remain strong; In terms of supply, isooctanol manufacturers are operating at a high level, and there is sufficient supply of octanol; In terms of demand, during the off-season of consumption, plasticizer factories also adopt a cautious attitude towards the procurement of raw material octanol, and downstream customers replenish their inventory at low prices. Overall, in the future, there is sufficient supply and weak demand for isooctanol, and cost support still exists. The price of isooctanol in the future is weakly consolidating.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 975 yuan/ton on July 1st, and 903 yuan/ton on July 29th. The price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 7.35% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has fluctuated and fallen this month. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has increased. This month, there has been frequent rainfall in many areas, resulting in poor transportation. The market supply is sufficient, and manufacturers mainly offer competitive prices. Downstream and distributors maintain a cautious attitude and buy at low prices. The international market situation has not improved yet, and domestic manufacturers are cautious and watching. As of July 29th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 870 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 890-920 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from April 29, 2024 to July 22, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. There was a significant decline in July, with the largest drop being -2.22% in the week of July 1st.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that logistics and transportation have been affected by typhoons and rainy weather in some areas recently. Downstream delivery capacity is limited, market transactions are poor, and current domestic and international demand is weak. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation of ammonium sulfate prices will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (7.19-7.26). On July 26th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% from 7840 yuan/ton on July 19th. The mixed xylene market has experienced an overall decline in this cycle, but the magnitude of the downward adjustment varies among different markets, with the largest decline occurring in the Shandong market. The price has been reduced by about 120 yuan/ton, and as of the 26th, the quoted price ranges from 7680-7700 yuan/ton. On the supply side, refinery prices have generally declined this week, with overall high inventory levels. The supply of goods from ports in East China has increased, and the overall market supply is relatively loose. On the demand side, it is affected by the weak market atmosphere, and downstream demand maintains the replenishment of essential needs, with demand support biased towards essential needs.

On the cost side: At the beginning of this cycle, the trend of crude oil has declined. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has eased, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle. As of July 25th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.28 per barrel, an increase of $0.69 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.37 per barrel, an increase of $0.66 or 0.8%.

Supply side: As of July 26th, Sinopec’s xylene quotations have generally decreased this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7750 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7650 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7850-7950 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the phthalic anhydride market continued to decline this week. As of the 26th, the phthalic anhydride market in Shandong Province, China, had a downward trend. Downstream factories maintained their demand for essential purchases, and high-end transactions were hindered. The mainstream negotiations for ortho benzene method sources in the market were between 7600-7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream negotiations for naphthalene method sources were between 7350-7500 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho benzene was temporarily stable, while the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and fell. The operation of on-site merchant equipment was stable, and the sales situation was average.

The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On July 26th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current price being 8900 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and sales are normal. The external PX price continues to decline, with CFR China closing at $993-995/ton as of July 25th, a decrease of $16/ton from last week.

As of Thursday (July 25th), the Asian xylene market closed down, with FOB Korea closing at $880-882/ton in August, a decrease of $13/ton; In August, CFR China closed at $911 per ton, a decrease of $11 per ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the low range, and there will be insufficient cost support. The overall supply of goods from ports in East China is on the rise, and the market supply has been relatively loose recently. On the demand side, the overall performance of the downstream market is weak, and the xylene market only maintains the demand for replenishment. On the 25th, both the xylene and PX external markets fell, and market expectations were weak. Overall, the atmosphere in the xylene market is relatively weak, and it is expected that prices will remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.