According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market has weakened overall since November, with a slight decline. On November 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8666 yuan/ton. On November 11th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77%.

Negative leads to weak rise in adipic acid market

At the beginning of November, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. The main reason is that the upstream raw materials, pure benzene and cyclohexanone, have both experienced weak declines in the market, and there is insufficient driving force for cost increases, resulting in average demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. Combined with the loose supply of adipic acid itself and multiple negative factors, the rebound of adipic acid market is weak, and weak downward trend is the main trend. The mainstream market price is 8400-8600 yuan/ton, and the market is running weakly.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that negative factors are still present, and in the short term, the adipic acid market is unlikely to have upward momentum and will continue to weaken.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (11.1-11.8), with an average market price of 254660 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 261830 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.82%.

The recent rebound trend of tin prices within the range. The tight supply at the upstream mining end continues, and although news of the resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar continues, it has not yet been implemented. Currently, Myanmar’s mineral exports are low and there is no significant increase in the short term. In early November, the operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions slightly decreased, and there was a significant consumption of inventory in the early stage. In the context of tight mining conditions, smelting production has declined, and it is expected that tin production will remain stable throughout the year.

The tin terminal consumer electronics, semiconductor and other fields are showing a trend of recovery, driving the consumption demand for downstream tin soldering materials and other products. It is expected that the demand for electronic consumption will continue to recover. Photovoltaic and tinplate continue to grow.

Based on comprehensive analysis, with the recovery of terminal consumption and the support of various policies, tin prices are expected to maintain a strong trend within the range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 7th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8575 yuan/ton. On November 1st, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8837 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.97%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (11.3-11.7), the overall domestic cyclohexanone market showed a weak downward trend. During the week, the cyclohexanone market continued to move towards a low level, and the focus of transaction negotiations decreased. As of November 7th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region was around 8450-8500 yuan/ton, and the cyclohexanone market price in southern China region was around 8700-8750 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply: Currently, the supply side of cyclohexanone is relatively stable, and there is little change in the overall operation of the supply side, which provides moderate support for the cyclohexanone market.

On the demand side: Recently, the downstream demand market for cyclohexanone has shown cautious performance, with a relatively light overall inquiry atmosphere. Most new orders are for urgent replenishment, and the support given to cyclohexanone on the demand side is limited.

Downstream product caprolactam: As we enter November, the market for caprolactam, a downstream product of cyclohexanone, continues to decline, with the market center of gravity continuously exploring. As of November 6th, the reference price of caprolactam is 10666.67 yuan/ton, a seven day decline of 4.78%.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is poor, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and a general mentality among industry players. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 6, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7266 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6900 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.31%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of November, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a slight upward trend. Entering November, the n-butanol market is operating steadily and steadily. Entering this week, the market price of n-butanol is gradually approaching high levels, and factories and suppliers in Shandong have raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 100-150 yuan/ton. As of November 6th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 7200-7300 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: In November, the overall supply performance of n-butanol in the field was stable, and the supply side provided stable support similar to n-butanol.

On the demand side: Currently, downstream demand for n-butanol has improved, with a mild atmosphere for on-site inquiries. Overall transactions for n-butanol have also improved, and prices in the n-butanol market are gradually rising with the support of demand.

Market analysis in the future

At present, downstream replenishment of n-butanol is relatively active, and the atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate in a stable to strong direction, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market first rose and then fell in October, with an overall decline and a new low for 2024. As of October 31st, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 6430.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 1.53% from 6530.00 yuan/ton on October 1st.

Supply side: Henan and Hebei have resumed production, while Qingdao has not yet resumed production; In the first half of October, there was a significant increase during the National Day holiday, which boosted domestic commodity prices. In addition, the resumption of unsaturated resin production after the holiday resulted in a replenishment of essential demand for maleic anhydride, supporting the upward trend in the maleic anhydride market; In the second half of the month, the operating rate of maleic anhydride has increased, the supply has increased, the prices of the main maleic anhydride factories have fallen, and the quotes from distributors have also fallen. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and new orders and urgent needs are mainly followed up. As of October 31st, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 5900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5600 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Pure benzene prices continued to decline in October. On October 1st, the price was 8183.00 yuan/ton; On October 31st, the price was 7113.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.08%.

The international crude oil market fluctuated in October, and the price of n-butane in the market fell. As of October 31, the price in Shandong was around 5050-5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Currently, the unsaturated resin market is mainly stable, with downstream essential purchases of unsaturated resin being the main focus. There is limited support for unsaturated resin, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; The supply of maleic anhydride has increased, but the price of maleic anhydride has fallen to the annual low point, and some factories have no intention of continuing to lower their prices. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.