In mid September, the domestic ABS market was consolidating at a low level, and spot prices of various grades remained stable with small fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11587.50 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -1.07% compared to the price level on September 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In mid September, the load level of the domestic ABS industry was average, and some of the early maintenance capacity resumed work. The industry’s operating rate rebounded by about 3% to 65%. However, due to the slow digestion of the supply, overall inventory continues to accumulate in a pattern of stable supply with an upward trend. Recently, the inventory of ABS finished products has risen to over 185000 tons. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: During this period, the overall trend of the three upstream materials of ABS showed mixed ups and downs, and the support effect on the cost side of ABS was average. The acrylonitrile market has fallen from a high level. This phase of high point market benefited from favorable supply conditions, but there was little substantial improvement in fundamentals. The lack of timely follow-up on demand and the transfer of goods from manufacturers to midstream merchants often result in a lack of digestion power for product inventory, leading to local resource surplus and causing the market to fall again.

Recently, the butadiene market has seen an increase. Before the holiday, major factories raised their ex factory prices twice, boosting the confidence of holders and leading to a general increase in on-site offers. In terms of demand, there has been a recent restart of facilities in East China, which has boosted the demand for raw material butadiene and significantly improved downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Currently, it is difficult to find low-priced sources of goods, and it is expected that the trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong in the short term.

The styrene market has been trading sideways at a low level this decade. Due to significant fluctuations in the crude oil market, the price of pure benzene has weakened, and the cost support of styrene has cooled down. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory of ports in East China remains low. Domestic demand is relatively stable, and the situation of new orders is average. There is a struggle between long and short positions in the market, and there is limited change in the supply and demand of styrene spot before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. It is expected that the market will continue to organize and operate in the future.

In terms of demand: September is already halfway through, and the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level. Instead, it continues the off-season trend, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence, have a low willingness to build warehouses, and offer according to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

In mid September, domestic ABS prices remained weak and stable. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly rebounded within ten days, and the inventory of finished products has slightly increased. The weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues, and market trading remains weak. The mismatch between supply and demand in the market is difficult to change, and due to the influence of multiple bearish factors, the traditional demand peak season expectation in September has not been fulfilled. The market has a bearish attitude towards the future, and it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has slightly declined this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6874 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 6844 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 0.44% during the week.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market experienced a slight decline. The upstream acetone market fell, while the propylene market fluctuated and fell this week. Isopropanol support was insufficient, and the market focus shifted downwards. In terms of demand, the market performance is average, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Those who urgently need to buy goods are cautious when placing actual orders. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6700-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6850-6950 yuan/ton, while in the South China region, the price is around 7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5975.5 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 5792.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.77%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet, with terminal factories mainly digesting contracts, and sporadic downstream restocking entering the market. Traders are under great pressure and mostly adopt a wait-and-see approach.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market has fluctuated and fallen this week, and overall prices have fallen. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6831.25 yuan/ton, and on Saturday, the average price was 6773.25 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.85%. At present, the shipment situation of enterprises is average, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that the market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has fallen this week. The acetone market is declining, the propylene market is fluctuating and falling, and cost support is inadequate. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and low procurement is preferred for urgent needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda increased in early September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 829 yuan/ton. On September 12th, the average market price was around 833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%.

2、 In terms of market conditions

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda rose in early September.

3、 Supply side

At the beginning of September, the market showed an upward trend, with some areas experiencing some improvement in transaction conditions. The maintenance of some facilities in Shandong had a significant boost to market prices, and there was not much pressure on enterprise inventory. Data shows that as of September 5, 2024, the inventory of liquid alkali sample enterprises with a capacity of 200000 tons or more in their factory warehouses nationwide was 286900 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.61% compared to the previous period.

4、 In terms of demand

In early September, downstream alumina prices continued to show a stable to strong trend. Some aluminum plants that have a demand for replenishment have concentrated their purchases in the market, driving the price of caustic soda to continue to rise. Alumina continues to be in a tight pattern, and there may still be a demand for replenishing caustic soda.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda rose in early September, and inventory in the Shandong region remained relatively low, coupled with some downstream purchasing intentions increasing. In the later stage, the supply side’s early maintenance equipment gradually resumed normal production, but there were no obvious maintenance equipment in the later stage, and the supply of goods showed a regional increase. On the demand side, the main downstream alumina enterprises’ essential procurement has provided certain support for the caustic soda market, while the demand of other downstream industries has slightly increased. The overall demand side has improved compared to the previous period. From the perspective of both supply and demand, there is not much overall change, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The market price of epichlorohydrin continues to rise this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of September 11th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 8275 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.60% compared to the beginning of this month (7987.50 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: The price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and increased, while the price of liquid chlorine has fallen. The raw material side continues to decline, which provides sufficient support for the epoxy chloropropane market and has little overall impact. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 11th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6845.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.76% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: According to the overall operating rate of the epoxy chloropropane industry within the week, it was 50-60%.

Downstream demand side: Following up on small orders for epoxy resin demand downstream, as costs rise and manufacturers face increased cost pressures, there is insufficient follow-up on new orders, and the market remains stable with little movement.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that short-term costs and supply side support are still acceptable, with downstream rigid demand buying as the main focus, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and cautious procurement of raw materials. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy chloropropane market price will remain stable and slightly strong, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was consolidating at a low level in early September, and spot prices of various brands fluctuated narrowly. As of September 10th, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 16216.67 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to early September.

Cause analysis

Supply side: Since September, the overall operating rate of PC in China has increased, with the industry average operating rate rising by about 6% to 81% compared to the end of July. Although the spot price within ten days is at the low point of the year, there is ample supply of goods on the market. The manufacturer’s factory pricing is mainly stable, with some enterprises showing slight looseness. The scale of the future maintenance plan is average, and Wanhua Chemical Plant still has room for improvement. There is an expectation of an increase in industry load at a high level. Overall, the domestic PC supply has been at a temporary high in recent times, with a further deepening mismatch between supply and demand, and the market supply side is seriously dragging down PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China changed slightly in early September. At present, the prices of phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials for bisphenol A, are fluctuating, and the cost support is still acceptable. The downstream production of the two main forces is stable with a slight increase, and with stocking up and the approaching holiday, stocking up consumption may remain stable. There is a slight expectation of a decrease in the load of the bisphenol A industry in the future, and the supply of goods is stable with a small decrease. Overall, bisphenol A maintains its support for PC costs..

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Entering the traditional peak season of September, the current pattern has not shown any improvement. The main logic of procurement still leans towards weak rigid demand, with factories taking goods to maintain production. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, the market has poor confidence in the double festival stocking market, buyers are strongly resistant to high priced goods, and consumption remains at a low level. The circulation of goods on site is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market was consolidating at a low level in early September. The upstream bisphenol A market is stable with small fluctuations, and the cost support for PC is still acceptable. The load of domestic aggregation plants has increased, and the supply remains high. The current PC price has been at a low point for some time this year, but the market has not rebounded due to bottoming out or the arrival of the “golden nine”. On the contrary, downstream peak season consumption has not yet begun, and weak rigid demand stocking is difficult to drive the market. The poor flow of market supply and demand makes it difficult to correct the supply-demand imbalance in the short term. Business Society predicts that the profound supply-demand contradiction may affect the traditional peak season market, making it difficult for the PC market to rise in the future.