According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic BDO market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. From June 17th to June 21st, the average price of domestic BDO remained at 9035 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.49%. The production of the equipment is stable, and the supply side support is weak, but the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. Downstream demand orders are being purchased at the terminal, and there is a bargaining sentiment under cost pressure. The supply and demand sides are engaged in a game, resulting in a weak and stagnant market focus.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased to 70%, and the market supply of goods is relatively abundant, with weak support from the supply side. Be cautious and observe an increase in emotions. The supply side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: supply is gradually recovering, and the calcium carbide market is operating weakly and steadily. Raw material methanol: The methanol market fluctuates significantly. As of 3:00 pm on June 21st, the domestic methanol price at Taicang is 2500 yuan/ton. The cost side of BDO is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, under the traditional off-season effect of demand, except for the PTMEG spandex industry chain, downstream industries in the terminal sector have slightly lower production, maintaining strict demand for raw materials and suppressing market trends. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the production of equipment is stable, the market supply of goods is abundant, and the supply side support is average. Under the influence of the traditional off-season demand, the downstream of the terminal maintains a strong demand follow-up. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will operate weakly and steadily.

In May, the price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose

The price of ethylene glycol was weak in June. According to data from Business Society, as of June 20th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4526.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94% compared to the average price of 4484.17 yuan/ton in the East China market on June 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4800 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4300 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

On June 20, 2024, the mainstream inventory basis price of ethylene glycol was between -33 and -30, and the futures market price rose. The basis price in East China slightly increased during the day, but showed a strengthening trend in the afternoon. The closing price rose to -29 to -25. At present, the basis of forward contracts remains in a near low and far high pattern. At present, the spot price of ethylene glycol at the port is between 4460-4475 yuan/ton.

Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in June

In June, the port inventory showed a sideways fluctuation with a slight increase. As of June 20th, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 749600 tons, an increase of 24500 tons compared to the inventory of 725100 tons on May 30th.

In June, ethylene glycol or oscillating operation will be the main focus

The focus of the ethylene glycol game in June is on downstream polyester demand and supply side variables. In the short term, it is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly operate in a volatile manner in June.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, since June, the spot price of natural rubber in China has first risen and then fell, and then surged and fell back. As of June 18th, the spot rubber price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14502 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% from 14710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 15071 yuan/ton. Since June, the natural rubber futures market has fluctuated widely. At the beginning of the month, the Shanghai rubber 09 contract opened at 15395 yuan/ton, with a peak of 16110 yuan/ton during trading. As of June 18th, it closed at 14915 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in the production areas is tight, which provides strong support for the natural rubber market. At the beginning of the month, adhesive negotiations in Thailand’s production areas were slow, and raw material prices remained high. In addition, the alternating rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan in China caused some areas to be hindered in rubber cutting, resulting in a relatively tight supply of natural rubber in the domestic market. At present, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by the weather, and the cutting progress is slow. As of June 18th, the price of Thai glue is 77.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price has declined; The continuous rainfall in the Banna production area of Yunnan, China, still affects the progress of rubber cutting.

On the other hand, the slow destocking of natural rubber inventory provides certain support for the natural rubber market. As of June 14, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 525800 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.33%. The inventory in the bonded zone was 76100 tons, a decrease of 4.42%; The general trade inventory was 449700 tons, a decrease of 0.78%.

However, since mid June, downstream tire production has significantly decreased, and in the short term, demand has been dragged down by the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, and natural rubber prices have fallen from high levels. As of June 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 75%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.2%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply in some domestic and foreign regions is still relatively low, and the overall raw material prices remain high, supporting the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side have a slow speed of destocking, and tire companies are cautious in purchasing natural rubber; At present, the inventory reduction of natural rubber ports is relatively slow. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to maintain a high consolidation trend in the short term. In the later stage, with the increase in supply in production areas and the decrease in downstream off-season production, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fall back from a high level.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, starting from June, terminal demand has weakened and the hydrogen peroxide market has declined. On June 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 933 yuan/ton. On June 14th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43%.

Terminal demand turns weak, hydrogen peroxide market weakens

Since June, the terminal paper industry has weakened, with manufacturers purchasing less water for hydrogen peroxide and a decline in the hydrogen peroxide market. The overall quotation is 860-950 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 950 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 50 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 860 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is about 950 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 30 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that at the end of June, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals remained sluggish, and the future hydrogen peroxide market will be weak and decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market remained stable on June 13th, with an average price of 1.4D * 38mm at 7696 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the previous trading day. At present, traders have a shortage of spot goods and are reluctant to sell at high prices. In addition, short fiber factories in East China are changing their cotton production lines, resulting in a relatively tight supply of goods. The cost side support has weakened, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is stronger, with primary demand for goods and less market transactions. It is expected that the short-term spot supply will tighten, providing support for the price of polyester staple fibers, and the price is relatively resistant to decline.