In May, the price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose

In May, the price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose. According to data from Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4526.67 yuan/ton, which is 1% higher than the average price of 4481.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on May 1. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4450-4580 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4250 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

May port destocking

The port inventory showed a destocking status in May. As of May 30th, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 725100 tons, which is 869100 tons compared to the inventory on April 29th, and 144000 tons have been destocked.

In May, the price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose, mainly due to changes in the news in the middle and late stages. There were production cuts in the Middle East and North America overseas, supply contraction, and a decrease in port forecasts, breaking previous expectations for import growth; Another reason for the decline in port inventory is due to the previous consumption of hidden inventory, which has accelerated port shipments recently and has begun to shift towards consumption of explicit inventory.

Possible increase in supply in June

The short-term changes in ethylene glycol supply are as follows: by the end of May, a 500000 ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Guangdong had been restarted and qualified materials were produced. The subsequent load plan is to maintain around 90%. The plant was previously shut down for maintenance in late March. The restart time of a 400000 ton/year MEG plant in Fujian has been postponed again, and its ethylene plant is still undergoing debugging due to equipment failure. This network will continue to follow up in the future. A 300000 ton/year synthesis gas to ethylene glycol unit in Shanxi has recently been shut down for maintenance, with an estimated duration of around 8 days. A set of 1.4 million tons/year ethylene plant in Zhejiang has been restarted and stably operated. The 800000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant supporting the ethylene plant is planned to be put into operation around the end of this weekend,

From June to July, with the return of large-scale facilities such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and satellites, it is expected that the production capacity of ethylene glycol will reach 2.95 million tons from the end of May to July. In the medium to long term, there is an expectation of supply growth.

In June, ethylene glycol or oscillating operation will be the main focus

The focus of the ethylene glycol game in June is on downstream polyester demand and supply side variables. In the short term, it is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly operate in a volatile manner in June.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the CPP market has been operating in a weak and volatile manner at a low level this month. As of May 30th, the price of 25 μ m CPP composite film is around 10133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.16% compared to the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price occurs in the middle of the second half of the month, with a price of about 10183.33 yuan/ton, and the lowest point occurs in the middle of the month, with a price of about 10133.33 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7964.29 yuan/ton, which is about 1.55% higher than the price level at the beginning of the month (7842.86 yuan/ton). The highest point of the price appeared in the latter half of the year, at 7964.29 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the middle of the first half, at a price of about 7712.50 yuan/ton. The raw materials fluctuate upwards, and the cost side provides strong support for CPP, which significantly boosts the price of CPP films and puts greater pressure on prices.

After the holiday, the operating load rate has gradually rebounded, and there is sufficient supply of spot goods.

In terms of demand: entering the off-season, many downstream enterprises are in urgent need of replenishment, with weak trading volume and cautious inquiries. Market demand still has weak support for prices.

Future Market Forecast

Downstream inquiries are cautious, demand is in the off-season, and there is not much room for film companies to make concessions. It is expected that CPP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 10162.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.83% compared to the DOP price of 9787.50 yuan/ton on May 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material phthalic anhydride for plasticizers has increased, while the price of isooctanol has stabilized at a high level. The cost of plasticizers has increased, and the profit of plasticizer DOP has decreased. The production of plasticizer DOP enterprises has decreased, and the supply of plasticizer DOP has decreased.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9950 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% compared to the quotation of 9660 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of isooctanol was at the bottom of the market, and there was limited room for its decline. Since the domestic isooctanol market hit bottom in mid April, the price center of isooctanol has slowly shifted upwards. From the demand side, the rotating maintenance of downstream plasticizers and isooctyl acrylate units in May resulted in low continuity of buying, and the fluctuation range of isooctyl alcohol narrowed. The market for isooctanol lacks continuous upward momentum, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated slightly.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose in May

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 6.06% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 7720 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho benzene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In the middle and late stages, the phthalic anhydride unit underwent centralized maintenance, and its daily production capacity utilization rate has dropped to 59%. The supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, supporting the rise in phthalic anhydride prices and the increase in plasticizer DOP costs.

Expected decrease in downstream demand

Affected by the increase in planned maintenance enterprises, The production of PVC has decreased. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises is around 50%, unchanged on a month on month basis and decreasing year-on-year. In the short term, the supply of fundamentals has decreased due to maintenance, while domestic and international demand remains weak, especially in the export market, making it more difficult to accept orders, The supply and demand of PVC market are weak; In the medium to long term, The policy stimulus in the PVC market to reduce inventory and quantify inventory is difficult to bring benefits to new construction projects. Real estate transactions have boosted demand in the building materials market, and spot fundamentals are cautious and cautious. There is not much planned maintenance in June, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation, resulting in increased supply and poor demand performance, which has a certain drag on the market. The supply and demand in foreign markets are weak due to maintenance and off-season constraints. Overall, The supply and demand of PVC and downstream markets are weak, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased in May. The production of plasticizer DOP manufacturers has slightly decreased, and both upstream isooctanol manufacturers and downstream PVC product enterprises have experienced varying degrees of maintenance and production decline. The overall supply of plasticizer sector is tight; Downstream production has decreased, and downstream demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. In the future, with the completion of enterprise maintenance, supply and demand have increased, and the support for rising raw material prices has weakened; Downstream demand support is increasing, and the price of plasticizer DOP is expected to stabilize strongly in the future.

May saw a significant increase in quotes from new pentanediol companies

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the quotation for new pentanediol was 10700 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.36% compared to the quotation of 9966.67 yuan/ton on May 1st. The prices of new pentanediol enterprises have significantly increased, with Yantai Wanhua’s new pentanediol prices rising to 11100-11300 yuan/ton, and Luxi Chemical’s new pentanediol prices rising to 9850 yuan/ton. In May, the prices of major new pentanediol manufacturers increased by 1200-1300 yuan/ton, with strong cost support. The new pentanediol market is operating stronger, and the inventory of new pentanediol factories is low. Currently, orders are scheduled until next month. The supply of goods on site is tight, and the inquiry atmosphere is strong. Traders are reluctant to sell in stock, resulting in an increase in the market price of new pentanediol.

The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the domestic quotation for isobutyraldehyde was 8675 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.40% from the price of 7650 yuan/ton on May 1st. The price of propylene has stabilized at a high level, while the cost support for isobutyraldehyde remains strong; Low inventory of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers, resulting in a significant increase in isobutyraldehyde prices in May; Downstream demand support, manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship, and the price of isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased.

Raw material formaldehyde prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 28th, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1242.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% compared to the formaldehyde price of 1212.50 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated significantly and increased, with strong cost support. In the latter half of the year, the price of methanol fell, and the cost support for formaldehyde decreased; Downstream rigid demand procurement, formaldehyde prices fluctuate and rise. Cost support, there is still momentum for the price increase of neopentyl glycol.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe, in terms of cost, formaldehyde prices have fluctuated and risen, while isobutyraldehyde prices have significantly increased. The cost of new pentanediol has also increased. In terms of supply and demand, the fundamentals of new pentanediol are relatively balanced, with low inventory in new pentanediol factories and tight supply on the market. Under the stimulation of buying up but not buying down, new pentanediol traders are reluctant to sell, and the support for the price increase of new pentanediol has increased. Overall, the cost support for neopentyl glycol has weakened, neopentyl glycol manufacturers are reluctant to sell, neopentyl glycol supply is tight, and downstream demand support is limited. It is expected that the price of neopentyl glycol will remain strong and stable in the future.

Market analysis for this week

This week, the price of magnesium ingots first rose and then fell. In the early part of the week, factories had a strong willingness to raise prices due to cost support. Coupled with the rise in raw material silicon iron prices, the falling magnesium price formed support. At the end of the week, some magnesium factories have loosened their quotations due to low market transactions. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18666.67 yuan/ton, with a week on week increase of 0.90%.

In terms of supply and demand

On the supply side, the factory quotation is relatively stable, with a clear attitude of price support. Currently, there have been no changes in production, and the magnesium factory is operating normally. Some factories have slightly adjusted their output. On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand, especially with low export order prices, which limits the upward trend of magnesium ingot prices.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6900-7100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% compared to last week. This week, despite the tight supply of spot goods by enterprises, increased market demand, and some support from the cost side, the market for ferrosilicon has been relatively strong, and the market quotation is also relatively firm.

This week, the national blue charcoal market experienced a slight fluctuation. Except for a few companies that raised the price of blue charcoal by 10-20 yuan/ton based on their own sales situation, the prices of most other companies remained stable; Under the influence of environmental factors such as the first round of decline in coke, the price of blue coke in the Xinjiang market has slightly declined, ranging from 10-30 yuan/ton, and the overall market price has shown fluctuations. As of May 24th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 840-980 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 610-680 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 900-1000 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 665-700 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, magnesium plants have been operating normally recently with sufficient supply, but the demand side has not shown significant growth, especially with the continuous rise in magnesium prices. Downstream transactions are not many, coupled with lower prices from overseas users and a lack of downstream demand support, resulting in poor upward momentum in magnesium prices. However, the price of raw materials such as ferrosilicon has risen, compressing the profit margins of magnesium factories. Based on cost considerations, manufacturers have no willingness to lower prices for shipment, and their quotations are relatively stable. It is expected that the metal magnesium market will operate steadily in the later stage.