The price of ethylene glycol fell in March

The price of ethylene glycol will decrease in March 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 21st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4536.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.10% from the average price of 4681.67 yuan/ton on March 1st.

On March 21, 2025, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port remained stable with an upward trend, and the contract transaction price range for this week was 4425-4440 yuan/ton. In the morning session of March, the contract basis price increased from+29 to+32, and in the afternoon, the price rose to+30 to+34.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of March 21, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 519-526 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 540 US dollars/ton.

Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March

Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March. On March 20, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 682300 tons, a decrease of 20500 tons from the total inventory of 702800 tons on March 17; The total inventory on February 27th was 711900 tons, a decrease of 29600 tons.

The downward shift of the cost dominant price center is expected to lead to a bottoming out and rebound in the market

The cost side dominates the price trend in the early stage, coupled with market expectations of insufficient terminal consumption, which may drag down the demand of the polyester industry. The overall market sentiment is weak, and the focus of ethylene glycol prices has shifted downwards.

In terms of domestic supply, the maintenance of domestic ethylene glycol plants will gradually be implemented. On March 19th, Yankuang in Inner Mongolia will shut down for maintenance; In early April, a 1.8 million ton/year synthetic gas to ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi will be shut down and rotated. The initial profits were good, but some companies delayed their spring inspection plans. With the compression of profits caused by the decline in prices, there is a possibility of a concentrated outbreak of maintenance volume in the future.

Recently, international crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, with cost drag slowing down. Coupled with the significant decline in ethylene glycol, the downward space has narrowed, and the probability of bottoming out and rebounding has increased.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province slightly declined this week (3.3-3.14), with an average market price of 15800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15766 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.21%.

Supply and demand side

Due to the long-term phenomenon of cost inversion, multiple magnesium factories continue to face the dilemma of losses. As the weather gradually warms up after entering spring, magnesium factories have chosen to conduct equipment maintenance in advance and have taken measures to reduce or shut down production in order to alleviate operational pressure. At the same time, due to poor production and sales in the early stage, the inventory of magnesium factories is generally low, which has led to a significant reduction in magnesium supply in the market. However, despite the tight market supply, magnesium prices have not yet reached the cost line of magnesium plants. Therefore, magnesium plants have a strong willingness to raise prices and hope to improve their current loss situation by stabilizing or increasing magnesium prices.

demand side

The downstream demand is currently maintaining an overall stable trend. Downstream believes that magnesium prices are already low in the short term, so they are entering the market to replenish and actively reserve. In the process of gradually rising magnesium prices, active transactions have emerged in various price ranges, which not only reflects the market’s resilience in demand for magnesium, but also provides strong support for magnesium prices.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, magnesium prices have recently stopped falling and stabilized. Partial magnesium factories have stopped production for maintenance, reversing the situation of oversupply in the market. It is expected that magnesium prices will maintain a strong and stable operating trend in the coming period. With the further adjustment of market supply and demand, magnesium prices are expected to gradually rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on March 20th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 8300 yuan/ton. Compared with March 16th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 8375 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.90%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province, China, has shown a downward trend. During the week, trading in cyclohexanone was light, and the focus of market negotiations shifted downwards, with an adjustment range of around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of March 14th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 8250-8400 yuan/ton.

Market influencing factors

In terms of supply and demand: During this week, the overall demand order follow-up in the downstream chemical fiber market of cyclohexanone was relatively slow, and the demand was initially weak. Some cyclohexanone factories have certain pressure on the supply side, and the transmission between supply and demand is loose, and the game is gradually emerging.

In terms of cost: The weak market for pure benzene on the raw material side has loosened the cost support for cyclohexanone. As of March 19th, the reference price for pure benzene was 6859.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.76% compared to March 1st (7518 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is relatively weak, and downstream users are cautious in their stocking and procurement operations. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly be weak and organized, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market fluctuated and consolidated in mid March, with most brand products experiencing narrow price adjustments. As of March 19th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7541.67 yuan/ton, which has increased or decreased by 0.33% compared to the price level at the beginning of March.

price trend

In terms of raw materials:

The trend of the upstream crude oil market in the far end has declined. On the one hand, the Russia Ukraine peace talks have released positive signals, and the United States is considering easing sanctions on Russia, which has reduced potential supply risks. On the other hand, oil producing countries plan to increase production slightly starting from April, which has led to a decline in the international crude oil market; In addition, the imposition of tariffs by the United States has intensified market concerns and may drag down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a sluggish crude oil market. In terms of propylene, it has already fallen to a temporary low point in the early stage, and there is a tight supply-demand struggle in the middle stage, with a narrow range of fluctuations. Although prices rebounded narrowly in the first ten days, trading fell short of expectations or dragged down the future market. The price of propane mainly fluctuates with crude oil. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated in mid March, and the overall support for PP costs was average.

Supply side:

In mid March, the load of domestic PP enterprises increased narrowly, and the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has increased by about 1% to 82% compared to the beginning of the year, and the domestic weekly average production has risen to nearly 780000 tons. The production capacity is still in the blank stage within ten days, and recently there have been maintenance tasks for the equipment of enterprises such as Maoming Petrochemical, Donghua Energy, and Zhongjing Petrochemical. From the results, there is a narrow expectation of supply reduction. As for the ten day period, the supply side’s support for PP spot prices is still relatively weak.

In terms of demand:

In mid March, there was limited improvement in the demand side of PP, and on-site trading remained at the level of essential demand. The rebound trend of consumption levels of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice in terminal enterprises has slowed down. With the warming of temperatures, the demand for PP in fields such as architecture and agriculture has also increased. But currently, the scale of new orders in the market is generally small, and there has been no significant increase in volume. However, exports are still affected by tariffs, and overall, the demand side shows insufficient momentum.

Future forecast

In mid March, the domestic PP market prices were mainly consolidating. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average, with industry supply rising slightly at a high level, slow recovery in consumption, market supply-demand competition, and a dilemma between long and short positions. In the short term, the PP price market may still be under pressure and consolidation.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7150 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 3.44% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on March 7th, which was 6912.50 yuan/ton. The operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The operating load of plasticizer enterprises has increased, and downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing, the maintenance of adjacent benzene units is advanced, the supply of adjacent benzene is reduced, the support for the rise of adjacent benzene is increased, the price of adjacent benzene is strong and temporarily stable, the cost of raw materials is strong and temporarily stable, the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices is weakened, and the support for the rise is increased.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

The maintenance plan for the ortho benzene unit of Yangzi Petrochemical has been advanced, resulting in a reduction in ortho benzene supply and a continuous opening of the export window. Domestic ortho xylene spot supply has decreased, leading to a decrease in the load of ortho phthalic anhydride enterprises and a tightening of ortho phthalic anhydride supply.

This week, the cost of raw materials such as benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the price of ortho xylene was 7300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on March 7th at 7300 yuan/ton. The early maintenance of neighboring benzene manufacturers has reduced the supply of neighboring benzene, increased the price of neighboring benzene, and stabilized the cost of neighboring phthalic anhydride; The price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing strongly, the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is stabilizing strongly, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists.

Demand side: DOP market trend first rises and then falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the DOP price was 8101.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.46% compared to the DOP price of 8138.75 yuan/ton on March 7th; Compared to March 11th, the DOP price of 8251.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 1.82%. The production of plasticizer DOP enterprises has increased, plasticizer production has recovered, demand for phthalic anhydride has increased, phthalic anhydride inventory has decreased, and the upward momentum of phthalic anhydride has increased.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of costs, the expected start of production for phthalic anhydride has decreased, the supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, the support for the rise in o-xylene prices has increased, the price of industrial naphthalene has temporarily stabilized, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, with increased support for the rise in phthalic anhydride costs; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers has increased, and the support for the increase in demand for phthalic anhydride has increased. In the future, as costs rise and demand recovers, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and rise.