According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak recently (11.18-11.27). As of November 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market is around 16709 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from 16590 yuan/ton on November 18th, with a high point of 16823 yuan/ton during the cycle. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high and have fallen. As of November 27th, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 Thai baht/kg, a slight increase from 68.10 Thai baht/kg on November 19th; As of November 27th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 17300 yuan/ton, which is higher than the 17000 yuan/ton on November 19th.

Maintain a certain inventory of natural rubber. As of November 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 423500 tons, which was basically the same as the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of November 22, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.3%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are fluctuating at high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has stopped rising in the short term; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 850 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 821 yuan/ton on November 27th. This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 3.33%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. In early November, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market weakened and declined, and the focus of transactions shifted downwards. Downstream inquiries have decreased, demand has weakened, and coupled with the poor performance of ammonium sulfate exports, ammonium sulfate continues to operate weakly. In mid to late November, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate slowly rose. The downstream demand has increased, and the transaction price of ammonium sulfate market has risen. However, the international market for ammonium sulfate has not improved yet and remains mainly weak. As of November 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-860 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from September 2, 2024 to November 18, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate fell significantly in November, with the largest drop being -5.69% in the week of November 4th.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the trading atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market has been improving recently, with downstream urgent purchases resulting in a slight increase in domestic prices. However, the export market remains weak. It is expected that the short-term domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience a narrow adjustment in price.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 26th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6670 yuan/ton, which is 1.04% lower than the reference average price of 6740 yuan/ton on November 20th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 26th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6983 yuan/ton, which is 0.24% lower than the reference average of 7000 yuan/ton on November 20th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

The domestic phosphoric acid market is trending downwards this week. As of November 26th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6450-6800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6650-6850 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7150 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has weakened and fallen. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is light, with limited market transactions and an increasing downstream mentality of buying up rather than buying down. Short term domestic yellow phosphorus prices are expected to weaken and consolidate.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable, maintaining a high level of temporary stability. Downstream on-demand procurement ensures stable shipment of phosphate ore. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the spot supply of phosphoric acid in the market is still acceptable, but the demand is flat. The main focus is on issuing preliminary orders. Downstream on-demand procurement, most still maintain a wait-and-see attitude. There is currently no significant fluctuation in short-term market supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been declining recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream urgent procurement has led to a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, resulting in a decrease in trading volume. It is expected that in the short term, the phosphoric acid market will observe the trend of raw materials and focus on weak prices and consolidation operations.

Market Overview: Supply in the East China region continues to be tight, but overall supply in the North is abundant, and some facilities in the East China region may be expected to recover in the future. The tight situation in the East China region may be alleviated. In addition, as prices continue to rise, buying is becoming more cautious. Therefore, the market growth has slowed down, and we are waiting for the settlement of this month to be announced.

Supply side: During the week, major factories in East China were operating at low load. The supply in the East China region continues to be tight, while the northern market is operating at full capacity. As of November 22, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate reached 70.63%, a decrease of -0.22% compared to the same period last week. The inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 35200 tons, a decrease of 4900 tons from last week.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market has remained relatively stable, with the mainstream closing reference at 6860-6950 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of propylene continues to be tight, providing significant support for price trends. However, with the high price of propylene, downstream profit margins have narrowed, which has to some extent suppressed buying enthusiasm. It is expected that the propylene market price will remain stable and slightly strong in the near future.

In terms of demand: In mid November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry continued to rise, and the load level continued to increase. After the load increase in Tianjin Dagu and Jilin Petrochemical in the first ten days, the supply of Zhejiang Petrochemical has also increased recently. The industry’s operating rate has increased by nearly 4% to over 73%.

Market outlook: The domestic acrylonitrile market remains strong in the short term, with continued tight supply in the East China region. However, the overall supply in the North is abundant, and there are also variables in the supply going forward. There is an expectation of easing the tight situation in East China, but market confidence is insufficient, and there may be limited room for further growth.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (11.18-11.22), with an average market price of 17200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16766 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.52%.

This week’s market analysis

The price of magnesium ingots continued to fall under pressure this week, and in the short term, the price has been lowered, almost reaching the freezing point in recent years. Some manufacturers have been reversed. The rapid decline in prices in the short term has an impact on the psychology of the industry.

Supply and demand side

The current situation of oversupply has not been alleviated, but the overall transaction situation in the market has improved compared to last week. After a deep correction in market prices, some wait-and-see customers entered the market to stock up. Afterwards, the price stabilized, and currently in the game between supply and demand, the market price is running weakly stable. Some manufacturers have prepared to reduce production to cope with the current cost inversion of magnesium prices.

comprehensive analysis

It is expected that it will be difficult for the magnesium market to improve in the short term without a positive boost. Considering that magnesium prices have fallen to factory costs, some factories are planning to shut down. Some factories have a high willingness to raise prices, and it is expected that the difficulty of further reducing the magnesium market will increase. The magnesium market may have a weak and stable operating trend next week, and we will observe the progress of demand follow-up and factory production reduction.