Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in March
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in March, and have recently experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20576.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from the market average price of 20570 yuan/ton on March 1.
In the early stage, aluminum prices continued their strong trend from January to February. Recently, aluminum prices have slightly fallen, and the overall price is fluctuating at a high level.
Fundamental Overview
Supply and demand fundamentals: slow recovery of aluminum consumption during peak season, rigid supply, and continuous depletion of social inventory. The resumption of production in Xinjiang and the new production in Qinghai can contribute to incremental growth, while the aluminum water ratio continues to increase, resulting in a month on month decrease in aluminum ingot supply. The peak consumption season on the consumer side continues, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises continues to rise.
Macro factors: Domestic fiscal policy maintains a loose direction to promote domestic demand. On the overseas front, the US tariff policy has been fluctuating. Earlier last week, Trump stated that not all threatened tariffs will be implemented on April 2nd, and some countries may receive exemptions. Subsequently, it was announced that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all cars not manufactured in the United States.
In terms of imports and exports: According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative export volume of unprocessed and rolled aluminum and aluminum materials in China in February 2025 was 408000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% month on month and 12.70% year-on-year; The cumulative export volume for the whole year of 2025 will reach 859000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%.
Future forecast
Short term fundamentals are supported, and we are observing the impact of macro factors. It is expected that the probability of short-term aluminum price fluctuations will increase, and we will focus on fundamental changes in the medium term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the price of lead 1 # was 17325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the lead price of 17380 yuan/ton on March 24th.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices have been running at a high level, with a slight decrease and adjustment within the range.
Raw material end
There is currently no fluctuation in the processing fee for domestic lead concentrate. The refinery resumed in March, but the mining section is still in a tense stage.
Supply and demand side
Currently, primary lead smelting enterprises are reducing production and entering a maintenance period, resulting in a phased reduction in the supply side, leading to a relatively tight supply of goods in the market; In the field of recycled lead, due to the trend of easily rising and difficult to fall prices of waste batteries, smelting profits are compressed, and the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises is reduced accordingly. In the short term, this situation may become an important factor supporting the high volatility of lead prices.
Between March and April, the lead-acid battery market is about to enter the traditional off-season for consumption, and the industry generally holds a cautious and worried attitude towards the future trend of lead demand. At the same time, various provinces and cities are continuing to promote the “trade in” subsidy policy for electric bicycles and cars, and the market is closely monitoring to what extent this measure can offset the impact of the off-season.
comprehensive analysis
There is support on the raw material side, and lead prices fluctuate within a high range. However, downstream purchases during the off-season are mainly driven by rigid demand, resulting in limited demand for lead ingots. Expected to fluctuate in the short term. Follow up on the impact of raw materials on prices.

Product Name: Isopropanol
Latest price: On March 27th, the average market price was 6600 yuan/ton.
Analysis points: The isopropanol market is currently stable today. The confidence in the market is average, with a narrow downward trend in the upstream acetone market and insufficient cost support. Trading in the market is relatively cold, with purchases being made on demand and transactions being cautious. Overall, the market enthusiasm is average, and the focus of negotiations is mainly on maintaining stability. It is expected that the isopropanol market will weaken and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the trend of the raw material market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was consolidating at the end of March, with most brand products having no price adjustment or a narrow adjustment range. As of March 26th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7555 yuan/ton, a decrease of+0.51% compared to the price level at the beginning of March.

price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Due to signals of easing geopolitical conflicts and the impact of oil producing countries’ plans to increase production, the upstream crude oil trend of PP has declined in the early stage. At the end of March, some potential negative factors were digested, and oil prices rebounded from low levels. However, due to the negative transmission of crude oil in the early stage and the drag of lower than expected trading, the spot price of propylene has recently broken through and declined. The price of propane mainly fluctuates with crude oil. Overall, the PP raw material market showed mixed ups and downs at the end of March, providing moderate support for PP costs.

Supply side:

At the end of March, the load of domestic PP enterprises was slightly reduced, and the market supply remained generally abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has decreased by about 5% to 77% compared to mid month, and the domestic weekly average production has returned to nearly 730000 tons. Recently, Maoming Petrochemical and Jinergy Chemical have reduced their workload through maintenance, and in the future, there will be maintenance tasks for equipment at enterprises such as Zhongjing Petrochemical. The domestic supply has slightly decreased and there are expectations of tightening, and the supply side’s support for PP spot prices has slightly rebounded at the end of the month.

In terms of demand:

At the end of March, there was limited improvement in the demand side of PP, and on-site trading remained at the level of essential demand. The consumption level of end enterprises in the field of plastic weaving has stabilized. The demand for PP in fields such as architecture and agriculture is slowly increasing with the warming temperatures. But currently, there is no increase in new orders in the market, and buyers tend to maintain production with scattered small orders. Against the backdrop of weak overseas macroeconomics, the export window period is difficult to materialize, and overall, the demand side lacks momentum due to the impact of US tariffs.

Future forecast

At the end of March, the domestic PP market prices were mainly consolidating. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average, industry supply has been lowered at a high level, consumer demand has flattened, market supply and demand are in a game, and long and short positions are temporarily balanced. In the short term, the PP price market may continue to consolidate and operate.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fell at a low level at the end of March, and the spot prices of most brands were lowered. As of March 25th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15700 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.28% compared to early March.

cause analysis

On the supply side: As we enter the end of March, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remains stable with small fluctuations. The current industry average operating level is basically the same as before, with an overall load of over 85%. The weekly average production remains at a super high level of nearly 70000 tons, and the on-site supply is very abundant. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and manufacturers’ shipments and auctions are weak. Factory prices continue to decrease, and the market supply side is not providing good support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A has continued to decline recently. Upstream acetone and phenol continue their mid month trend, with one rise and one fall, and industry confidence in cost values has not improved. Although there are expectations of a contraction in the supply of bisphenol A in the future, the demand for bisphenol A is not strong, and there is still some downward pressure on prices. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is relatively weak.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall market at the end of March will continue to maintain a light pre holiday level. The downstream factories have a lukewarm load, and the end enterprises are lagging behind in stocking up. The purchasing logic has remained at a weak level of rigid demand for a long time, and the supply-demand contradiction pattern continues to be profound. Merchants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards low position positions, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. This has increased the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation continues to be light. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

At the end of March, the domestic PC market fell at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently continuing to decline, providing poor support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is fluctuating at a high level, and the supply is loose. High industry inventory and high supply pressure. The current downstream demand follow-up is still slow and there has been no improvement. The market has a shortage of new orders and poor trading conditions. It is recommended to focus on the impact of the peak maintenance season on the market in the future, and it is expected that the PC market will continue to rise in the short term.