According to data monitored by Business Society, the carbon black market price was weak this week. As of the 20th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was at 9533 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of high-temperature coal tar experienced a slight decline this week. As of current data, the market price of coal tar in Shandong region has dropped to 4600 yuan per ton. Due to the significant increase in coke prices, this has greatly boosted the production power of coking enterprises, leading to a significant increase in the market supply of coal tar. The downstream deep processing market is currently facing the dilemma of market downturn, with reduced production load of enterprises and few large transaction orders in the market. This market atmosphere has formed a strong pressure on raw material prices, and it is expected that in the short term, the price of high-temperature coal tar will continue to maintain a weak trend.

Production situation: The supply of carbon black in the market is relatively sufficient this week, and most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable production.

In terms of terminals, the demand for tire replacement markets at home and abroad has been sluggish, and the shipping pace of the tire industry has significantly slowed down. Recently, some tire companies have been producing at low loads to alleviate pressure, while the sales performance of downstream rubber products industry has been lackluster. Overall, the circulation speed of goods is average, and manufacturers mainly make up for shortages. The overall enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black is average, and the fundamental support is weak. As a result, the shipping volume of carbon black enterprises has become slow, and the momentum of price increases is clearly lacking momentum.

Outlook for the future: Strong pressure from the terminal, weak prices in the high-temperature coal tar market, and relatively limited support for the cost of carbon black; At the same time, the downstream market has a relatively low demand for carbon black raw materials, and the demand side is still weak. Therefore, the carbon black market is expected to continue to maintain the current weak operating trend.

This week, the sponge titanium market prices remained strong. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.46% compared to the beginning of this month (54750.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of raw materials, the high price of titanium concentrate has put pressure on the cost of high titanium slag enterprises. In addition, with the increase in electricity prices in Liaoning region, most production enterprises have suffered losses, and the market price of high titanium slag is under pressure and rising. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 17th, the benchmark price of magnesium in Business Society was 18466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.07% compared to the beginning of this month (18666.67 yuan/ton).

Downstream titanium material market demand is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is cold.

Post forecast:

Due to the high prices in the raw material market, magnesium ingot prices have fallen, sponge titanium production capacity has been continuously released, and production has increased. However, downstream market demand is weak, and the transaction atmosphere is cold, presenting a state of supply-demand imbalance. According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, the sponge titanium market is expected to remain strong in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

The total import volume of MIBK in the first quarter of 2024 was 4320 tons, a year-on-year increase of -68% and a month on month decrease of -39%. In the first quarter, domestic production increased and MIBK imports showed a downward trend.

Firstly, the import volume will increase significantly in 2023. In December 2022, due to the long-term shutdown of large domestic facilities, the losses were severe, and the supply side severely contracted. In the fourth quarter, the market price rose from 10400 yuan/ton to 21000 yuan/ton in January 2023, an increase of over 100%. This also led to a large influx of imported goods, and domestic trading companies were importing MIBK to make up for the market gap. In February and March 2023, foreign MIBK concentrated in ports, resulting in a sharp increase in import volume in the first quarter of 2023. However, at the same time, with the increase in spot supply and weak demand, the domestic MIBK market price negotiations have mostly shown a downward trend.

Secondly, overseas device maintenance will be carried out in the first quarter of 2024. The main sources of imported MIBK from China come from Japan and South Korea, but from late March to early April 2024, both the Mitsui MIBK plant in Japan and the Jinhu MIBK plant in South Korea were shut down for maintenance, which also affected the import volume of MIBK from China in the first quarter of 2024. According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2024, China’s MIBK imports mainly came from South Africa, Mexico, and Japan, totaling 4000 tons, accounting for 95% of the total imports in the first quarter.

Business Society predicts that imported resources are expected to increase in the second quarter. From a supply perspective, the MIBK facilities in Mitsui, Japan and Jinhu, South Korea restarted in the second quarter. Currently, the MIBK market prices in China are at a high level in the second quarter, and there is room for arbitrage. Therefore, the import volume is expected to increase. From the perspective of market prices, the supply in the domestic market has increased, but downstream industries in the demand side have turned into a off-season in summer. Downstream demand is worrying in June, and Business Society expects a downward trend in market prices. As market demand contracts and prices decline, import sources will also decrease. Therefore, the total import volume in the second quarter is expected to increase, but the import volume in the third quarter may decline again.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1240.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1237.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. The current price has increased by 5.77% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months. This week, the market has slightly increased and then rebounded. As of May 15th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1200-1300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, with weak cost support. The operating rate of mainstream downstream plate factories is expected to decline, and the support for formaldehyde production is weak. Some formaldehyde production enterprises have accumulated inventory expectations, and the market is mainly slightly downward.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has seen a narrow decline. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term thermal coal market will maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. The supply of goods continues to be abundant, while downstream demand is relatively average in a supply-demand game state. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the price of raw material methanol has been mainly fluctuating, and many on-site formaldehyde units have maintained their initial load operation, with continuous supply growth. Downstream panel factories have lowered their operating rates as the temperature warms up. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 14th, the average price of isobutanol for enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% compared to last Tuesday’s price and 2.20% compared to the beginning of the month.

Recently, the market price of isobutanol has steadily increased. From a cost perspective, after the holiday, the center of gravity of raw material propylene prices has shifted upwards, and the main reason for the fluctuation and increase of raw material isobutyraldehyde is that the cost support is still acceptable. From the perspective of supply and demand, the spot supply in the market is tight, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices, and downstream buying is mainly based on demand. In addition, the related product n-butanol experienced an upward trend after the holiday, which boosted the isobutanol market and led to strong quotes from the industry. On May 14th, the mainstream ex factory price of isobutanol in the Shandong market was set at 8100 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Upstream propylene, supported by news and demand after the holiday, saw a slight increase in propylene prices. Upstream isobutyraldehyde, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of isobutyraldehyde on May 13th was 7825.00, an increase of 2.29% compared to May 1st (7650.00).

Related product n-butanol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 13th, the reference price of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 8000.00, an increase of 2.13% compared to May 1st (7833.33). After the holiday, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong region showed an upward trend.

Future Market Forecast:

The isobutanol analyst from Business Society believes that current cost support still exists, and the supply side is showing a tight performance, which provides significant support to the market. In addition, the rising operation of related products, n-butanol, gives the market confidence in boosting prices, and market transactions are orderly. The demand side is slightly cautious about high priced raw materials, and the impact may be limited. It is expected that in the short term, the isobutanol market may continue to operate strongly, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.