1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PVC spot market price fluctuated slightly this week, with a slight decrease. On Monday, the average domestic PVC price was 5566 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5662 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.07% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices have fluctuated slightly this week, with a slight decrease. Overall, the confidence in the spot market is average, with little change in prices on the market. Manufacturers’ quotations are generally stable, and traders’ prices are relatively flexible. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and a weak market atmosphere, resulting in average transactions. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5750 yuan/ton.

On April 18th, international crude oil futures continued to decline. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.10 per barrel, a decrease of $0.05 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.11 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have slightly decreased. On Monday, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 3016.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 3000 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 0.55% during the week. The PVC market is experiencing low volatility, and the process of removing calcium carbide inventory is relatively slow.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the PVC spot market has experienced slight fluctuations this week. Upstream calcium carbide prices have slightly decreased, with average cost support. The performance of PVC in both markets is average, with little change on the market and average market confidence. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has slightly increased. On April 17, the rare earth index was 391 points, a decrease of 61.17% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 44.28% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have slightly increased. As of the 18th, the price of neodymium oxide was 385000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.99% this week; The price of neodymium metal is 502500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.03% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 392500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.61% this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 527500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.44% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 490000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.03% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 387500 yuan/ton, with a 1.97% increase this week.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, with increased transactions and improved inquiries in the domestic rare earth market. Downstream enterprises have increased their purchases recently, and production and separation enterprises in Inner Mongolia have resumed work; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in the price trend of light rare earths. Recently, some rare earth raw material imports have decreased, downstream manufacturers have depleted their inventory, and purchasing sentiment has increased, leading to an upward trend in the rare earth market.

According to statistics, in March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 863000 and 883000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and 35.3%, respectively. From January to March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.115 million and 2.09 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 31.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market, with the domestic rare earth market mainly rising.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowdown in the growth rate of the indicators. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to March 2024 were 13483.5 tons, while China’s rare earth exports in March were 4709.6 tons; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the light rare earth market has slightly risen.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, and the inquiry situation has improved compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9314 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 9560.00 yuan/ton on April 17th, an increase of 2.64%. The current price has increased by 12.69% year-on-year.

styrene

The market price of styrene continued to rise in the first half of April. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has continued to rise in the past three months, and the recent market trend has been good. International oil prices have risen for six consecutive years, with pure benzene prices rising at high levels, strong cost support, low port inventories, and still expected to decline. Downstream terminal demand is mainly in demand, while the styrene market continues to rise.

Cost side

In the first half of April, the overall increase in pure benzene in China was good. Affected by the continuous rise in crude oil, the cost support for pure benzene is strong. In April, many domestic refineries underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a decline in supply. Most refineries in Shandong region had low inventories, and the quoted prices continued to rise. As of April 17th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in the Shandong market is 8800 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the year, currently pure benzene is still in the high range, which can provide some cost support for styrene.

Supply side

In April, there were more inspections of the styrene plant, and due to profit recovery, the operating rate of styrene increased by 67% compared to the previous month. At present, the inventory of styrene in East China ports is 147000 tons, a decrease compared to the previous month. There is still an expectation of destocking, and domestic supply remains at a relatively low level, which is beneficial for the styrene market.

Demand side

In the first half of April, all three downstream markets of styrene rose. The PS market has seen a slight increase, driven by the demand for home appliance packaging. The fast material circulation speed in East and South China has accelerated, and the overall transaction atmosphere has accelerated. The market is expected to rise. In the first half of April, domestic ABS prices rose at a high level. From a fundamental perspective, the upstream three materials of ABS are expected to maintain a high level of support in the future market, with strong expectations for the cost side support level of ABS. The ABS polymerization plant is still operating at a relatively low level, with supply tending to be tight. EPS is supported by the cost side, and the terminal air conditioning industry is entering a peak season. EPS is rising in the market under dual positive conditions.

Technical analysis

There is a high possibility of an increase in the future market of styrene, and spot prices may continue to rise. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since December 17, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 32.24%.

Historical price monitoring [low to medium]: Since the beginning of 2024, the price of styrene has been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring positions are 1-year high, 2-year medium high, and 3-year medium high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ABS in the past three years is 8922.28 yuan/ton, with a median value of 9145.95 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 7163.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 11128.57 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 2386.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -1578.57 yuan/ton.

According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the recent arrival of styrene at East China ports has been relatively low, continuing the trend of destocking. EPS and PS production have increased, and the downstream industry chain ecology has improved. The supply of raw material pure benzene is low, and the market is operating at a high level. Business Society analysts expect a slight increase in the styrene market.

Technical prediction of cyclohexanone market: probability of improvement increases

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, since March 3, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend, but currently the two moving averages are moving in opposite directions. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 47.82%.

At present, the price of cyclohexanone is at a mid high point in one year, a mid high point in two years, and a mid low point in three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of cyclohexanone in the past three years is 9401.25 yuan/kg, with a median value of 9155.16 yuan/kg, a minimum value of 7988.89 yuan/kg, and a maximum value of 10321.43 yuan/kg. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 1654.86 yuan/kg, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -677.68 yuan/kg.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 8th to 16th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9643 yuan/ton to 962 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.19% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.71%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.60%. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost pressure remains unchanged. In the early stage, many downstream chemical fibers have been centralized for procurement. Recently, many downstream chemical fibers have followed up as needed. There is abundant supply of cyclohexanone in spot, but the cyclohexanone market lacks positive boost, resulting in weak market growth and overall narrow consolidation and operation.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuates at a high level. As of April 16th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyishe is 8707.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 69.39%, and the weekly production is 105300 tons, which has increased compared to the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. In April, there was an increase in maintenance plans for caprolactam, and some units have recently reduced production, leading to stronger supply side support and an increase in caprolactam market prices. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene is operating at a high level, with no reduction in cost pressure, weak downstream demand, stable and abundant spot supply in the market, and no plans to reduce production. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will remain stagnant in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3033 yuan/ton on April 7th, and 2916 yuan/ton on April 15th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate dropped by 2.20%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3966 yuan/ton on April 7th. On April 15th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3940 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.67%.

2、 Market analysis

Market quotation situation

As of April 15th, the market price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3560-3660 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

Cost side

This week, the domestic market for raw material phosphate ore remained stable and operated steadily. Among them, the spot circulation of high-grade phosphate ore is relatively tight, while the overall supply of medium and low grade phosphate ore is relatively loose. Currently, the overall performance of the downstream demand side for phosphate ore is average, with downstream users mainly engaged in rigid procurement, and new market transactions are relatively cautious. As of April 15th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

The domestic market price of raw material sulfur has increased this week. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the manufacturer’s shipments are smooth. As of April 15th, the reference price for domestic sulfur market is 1203.33 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side

This week, the operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has declined, and some ammonium phosphate plants have started maintenance or planned maintenance, leading to a reduction in market supply. The situation of sustained sluggish demand has not improved, and market trading is weak. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are more cautious in procurement, with insufficient new orders and a strong wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Technical analysis

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 24, 2024, the 7-day moving average of ammonium phosphate has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is only 13.37%. The probability of ammonium phosphate continuing to move downwards in the short term is relatively high.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average of diammonium phosphate has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 24.46%. The probability of ammonium phosphate continuing to move downwards in the short term is relatively high.

4、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyi Society, spring plowing is nearing its end and the ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly. Although there is support on the cost side, downstream demand is not performing well, and the short-term market situation is difficult to improve. Technical analysis also shows a high probability of a downward trend. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will continue to decline.