Recently, the polyvinyl alcohol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. As of March 19th, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol at Shengyishe was 12300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% compared to the beginning of this month (12233 yuan/ton). Overall, the trend of polyvinyl alcohol is relatively warm, with a concentration of spot goods in the market and limited short-term circulation that may support the market. Shipping at high prices in the market maintains a restraining effect on market uplift.

In terms of supply:

The mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu have not fully opened their devices.

The current market for vinyl acetate continues to be dominated by mainstream manufacturers in North and South China, while at the same time, some manufacturers are operating under lockdowns. As a result, the overall spot resources in the market are scarce, and the focus of negotiations has shifted upwards. As of March 20th, the benchmark price of ethyl acetate for Business Society is 6516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.49% compared to the beginning of this month (6683.33 yuan/ton).

Overall, there is a weak supply side in the polyvinyl alcohol market, with a decrease in spot supply compared to previous average levels and low inventory levels. In the face of a shortage of enterprise goods, there is a strong intention to push up prices through quotations

In terms of demand:

The overall demand for polyvinyl alcohol downstream has not improved significantly, and intermediaries are stocking according to demand. Therefore, the market inquiry enthusiasm has increased, and the trading atmosphere is relatively warm. It can be seen that the supply is stable in the face of favorable market support, and the mentality of cargo holders is supported, so the quoted price has been raised.

Future Market Forecast:

Overall, the current market is operating at a low load, and some companies have been hindered in long-term shipments. The market is experiencing a shortage of spot goods, and there is little support for the short-term supply and cost of polyvinyl alcohol. The phased replenishment of demand is relatively active, but the battery life is not optimistic. Coupled with the restart of regional facilities and the increasing trend of spot inventory, the supply and demand sides will continue to play games. Analysts from Business Society predict that the price of polyvinyl alcohol will mainly consolidate in the near future, with a market transaction price of around 11900-13000 yuan/ton in 1799.

Acetic anhydride prices have fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 20th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the price of 5512.50 yuan/ton on March 13th; Compared to March 10th, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 5325 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. In mid month, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell, and the cost of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased; This week, the production of acetic anhydride enterprises has been stable, with sufficient supply of acetic anhydride. The inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers is low, and downstream demand is weak. The price of acetic anhydride rose first and then fell this week.

The price of acetic acid rose first and then fell this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid commodity market in Shengyishe, as of March 20th, the price of acetic acid was 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% from the price of 3100 yuan/ton on March 13th; Compared to March 10th, the price of acetic acid has stabilized at 3050 yuan/ton. The acetic acid manufacturer is operating steadily and the overall production is at a high level. The downstream operating profit of acetic acid is low, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers is poor, and the bearish mentality in the acetic acid market is widespread. The driving force for the cost increase of acetic anhydride is weakened, and downward pressure still exists.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, in terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell, and the cost support for acetic anhydride decreased; In terms of supply, acetic anhydride manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply of acetic anhydride; In terms of demand, downstream demand is poor, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride will decrease, with sufficient supply and weak demand; Expect the price of acetic anhydride to fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 2600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2462.5 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.41%.

2、 Market analysis

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2300-2400 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2300 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2200 yuan/ton. During the week, the prices of mainstream potassium chloride distributors decreased slightly. Anhui Badou Weekend’s potassium chloride distributor quoted 2350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe Weekend Potassium Chloride Distribution quoted 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has stabilized at a low level this week, with a price of 7300 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 19.78% year-on-year. This week, the market price of potassium nitrate stabilized at a low level, with a price of 5087.50 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 13.77% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of March 15th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7033.33 yuan/ton. This week, the price of cyclohexane has remained stable, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the support for raw material cost prices is insufficient, and there are not enough favorable factors. The cyclohexane market is mainly stable in the short term.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane remained stable, with the mainstream price currently around 7000 yuan/ton. The support for raw material costs is insufficient, and the support for cyclohexane market costs is weak. The downstream negotiation atmosphere is cold, and the trading atmosphere is cold. Currently, there are not many inquiries on the market, mainly small orders, and the cyclohexane market is slowly consuming inventory.

Chemical index: On March 14th, the chemical index was 860 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 43.81% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable, with weak cost support and unclear upward momentum.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 14, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 16220 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to March 10. Compared with February 29 (organic silicon DMC reference was 15360 yuan/ton), the price increased by 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.60%.

From the testing chart of organic silicon DMC product data from Business Society, it can be seen that starting from late February, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has experienced a broad upward trend, with the organic silicon DMC rising all the way into early March. As of March 10th, the overall increase in domestic organic silicon DMC after the Spring Festival exceeded 8%, and the high-end price of organic silicon DMC has also broken through the 17000 yuan/ton mark.

Entering this week, at the beginning of the week, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is generally in a trend of consolidation after rising, with a relatively calm overall performance and little price fluctuation, with stable operation as the main focus. During the week, Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC remained stable at 16100 yuan/ton. It was rumored that there was a second weak opening, with a transaction of 15800 yuan/ton orders, but a new opening returned to 16100 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC from leading companies has also remained stable, remaining strong around 17000 yuan/ton. Other factories are also stabilizing the previous market trend. During the weekend, the opening price of Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC was once again lowered to 15800 yuan/ton, driving the overall focus of the organic silicon DMC market to move downwards and widening the gap between high and low prices on the market. At present, there is a slight wait-and-see sentiment in the organic silicon DMC market. As of March 14th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 15800-17000 yuan/ton.

At present, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is generally shifting towards calmness, and the buying atmosphere in the early stage is gradually calming down. The downstream market is mainly focused on rigid demand procurement while digesting raw materials. The overall pressure on the supply side of organic silicon DMC is still relatively low, and the market is supported by pre orders. However, the price adjustments of major manufacturers have injected anxiety into the market, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is becoming stronger.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is mild, and the mentality of chasing gains on the market is slowing down. The overall operating rate of organic silicon DMC is still high, and some operators still have expectations for the traditional peak season of the market. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific attention should be paid to factors such as market operating conditions and changes in production capacity.