Since March, the market for epichlorohydrin has been operating steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on March 1st.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on March 5th was 6918.25, an increase of 0.69% compared to March 1st (6870.75). Recently, the price of propylene raw material has fluctuated and increased, while the price of glycerol raw material has remained relatively stable. The cost is still supported by the market for epichlorohydrin.

Supply and demand side: The production capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry is around 60%, and the demand side performs poorly. Downstream consumers mainly consume inventory raw materials, and the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is not high. Small orders require follow-up at a low price, and actual transactions are limited. The mentality of the industry is under pressure, and the epoxy chloropropane market is quiet and optimistic.

Main downstream epoxy resin: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of epoxy resin on March 5th was 13300.00, a decrease of 0.25% compared to March 1st (13333.33), which lacks support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that short-term demand is still dragging the market, and the trading atmosphere in the market is weak. Holders are actively shipping, and it is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may be weak in the short term. More attention should still be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated in February 2024. The average price in the domestic market was 217060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 217210 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.07%.

On February 28th, the base metal index was 1164 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.31% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On February 28th, the tin commodity index was 110.65, an increase of 0.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.05% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 158.17% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has experienced more recent declines and less recent gains.

The tin market in February fell before the holiday and then rose, with a range of fluctuations after the holiday. At the beginning of February, the social inventory of tin continued to accumulate, coupled with downstream enterprises basically ending replenishment near the Spring Festival, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot market and dragging down the trend of the futures market. Shanghai tin fell, and on the night of the 7th, due to the impact of the US dollar’s decline, Lunxi rose 1.39%, driving the opening of Shanghai tin to rise on the 7th. The tin market showed a “V” – shaped trend before the holiday. After the holiday, the market has gradually resumed work, but the downstream has still digested pre holiday inventory, resulting in weak fluctuations in the spot market, fewer inquiries entering the market, and relatively stable macro level. The futures market has relatively small fluctuations, and the post holiday market is mainly characterized by range fluctuations.

On the supply side, the progress of RKAB mines in Indonesia is slow, and imports from Wa State are still in the recovery stage. In the near future, another major importing country, Indonesia, will hold presidential elections, and the supply of tin mines remains tight due to the above news. In terms of demand, downstream demand has performed well recently. In January, welding material companies started production higher, and the overall market mentality has improved. After the holiday, downstream related companies have actively resumed work, and the current production has steadily rebounded. By the end of the month, the market holiday atmosphere has gradually faded, but downstream enterprise restocking demand is still low, and it will take time to recover to pre holiday levels. Overall, the upstream and downstream are actively resuming work, and it will still take some time to resume normal production. The tight supply at the mining end has boosted market sentiment, but due to the drag of high domestic inventory, the market’s upward space is limited. As enterprises gradually resume normal production and the market atmosphere will improve to a certain extent, the short-term market trend is mainly stable and volatile

Related data:

According to the latest data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global refined tin production in December 2023 was 31900 tons, and the consumption was 32200 tons. The overall performance in December was a supply shortage of 0300 tons. The global tin ore production in December 2023 was 29400 tons. In 2023, the global refined tin production was 353900 tons, with a consumption of 344800 tons. The overall performance in 2023 was an oversupply of 9000 tons. The global tin ore production in 2023 is 309700 tons.

On February 6, 2024, the International Trade Commission (ITC) of the United States voted to make a final anti-dumping and negative industrial injury ruling on tin plate (Tin Mill Products) imported from Canada, China, and Germany, as well as a final anti-dumping and negative industrial injury ruling on tin plate imported from China, The final ruling of the US Department of Commerce states that the products involved in dumping and subsidy practices have not caused substantial harm or threatened substantial harm to domestic industries in the United States. According to the negative final ruling of the US International Trade Commission, the US Department of Commerce will not issue anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on tinplate imported from the aforementioned countries. At the same time, the International Trade Commission of the United States ruled that the dumping margin of the products involved in South Korea could be ignored and voted to terminate the anti-dumping investigation against South Korea.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic asphalt market fluctuated narrowly in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average producer price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3585 yuan/ton to 3606 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60%, and the price decreased by 7.31% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, driven by the rise in international crude oil prices, refinery costs were significantly supported, and prices in some regions were pushed up. The widespread rain and snow weather has hindered the demand for essential goods, and the downstream terminal demand in the north and south is weak, with basic contract warehousing being the main focus. The asphalt market is showing a state of weak supply and demand, and the situation of price but no market is gradually emerging.

After the Spring Festival, the rain and snow weather in the area hindered demand, and traders showed high enthusiasm for quoting. However, actual transactions were average, and some spot asphalt prices remained stable but declined.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, international crude oil prices fluctuated at a high level in February. During the traditional Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, international crude oil experienced a strong rebound. The main reason is focused on the issue of geopolitical tension in the Middle East. As of the close on February 28th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.15 per barrel, a decrease of $0.41 or 0.5%.

On the supply side, the decline in production from main businesses and local refineries has had a supportive effect on prices at the beginning of the month. However, by the end of the month, the amount of available finished products is low, coupled with strong demand, the overall trading atmosphere is still acceptable. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry increased first and then decreased within the month, with a positive impact on the supply side.

On the demand side, during the Spring Festival holiday, the basic demand in various regions has basically stagnated, and downstream construction has basically stagnated. Coupled with the impact of large-scale rain and snow weather, the overall demand for domestic asphalt has weakened, and market trading is average. The demand side of the asphalt market is bearish.

As of the close of February 29th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has fallen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3688 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3710 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3672 yuan/ton. It closed at 360 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 10% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.27%, a trading volume of 122303 lots, a holding volume of 206110 lots, and a daily increase of 7851 lots.

According to future forecasts, with the gradual improvement of weather and the start of demand, the demand for asphalt in the market is expected to steadily increase, and the overall trading atmosphere in March tends to be positive. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that as low-priced resources decrease, short-term spot asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly.

According to the bulk list data, as of February 29, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton compared to the price on January 31, 2024 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5660 yuan/ton), a decrease of 7.95%.

From the monitoring of data from Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market was weak and downward in February. One week before the Spring Festival holiday, downstream unsaturated resins entered a state of comprehensive shutdown and holiday, while demand for polyester and polyurethane remained low. Traders continued to leave the market to observe, and the trading atmosphere on the market was cold, with weak price adjustments. After the holiday, the port inventory has accumulated, and the supply has increased, putting pressure on the market mentality. The downstream market is in the start-up recovery stage, and demand follow-up performance is insufficient. The overall market sentiment is weak, with prices fluctuating and falling. The decline at the end of the month has slowed down, and the market is weak and consolidating.

In terms of supply: In early March, the pre arrival quantity of imported cargo was high and concentrated, and the main port inventory will accumulate again, with inventory possibly rising to 50000 tons. The expectation of supply increment still exists, and the market mentality is still under pressure.

Downstream demand: Downstream and terminal startups are slow, overall demand remains weak, and industry participation in the market is limited. Although the operating load of unsaturated resin enterprises has increased, they still maintain order production.

Market forecast: Currently, there is no plan for a pullback in the production of domestically produced equipment, and domestic supply has increased. At the same time, in early March, the import volume to port was relatively high and concentrated, and there was a certain accumulation of port inventory. The expectation of supply increment will still give market pressure; Entering March, downstream demand will gradually recover, unsaturated resin production will return to normal levels, and the polyester and polyurethane industries will also have replenishment demand, with an expected increase in demand. Business Society Diethylene Glycol Analysts believe that the domestic Diethylene Glycol market experienced a weak adjustment in March, and specific attention still needs to be paid to port inventory accumulation and demand growth.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, as of February 29th and 18th, the BOPP market and above are the main players for this month μ The price of BOPP film is around 9631 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.68% compared to the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price appeared in the second half of the month at 9631 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the first half of the month, with a price of about 9566 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7650 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.43% compared to the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price appeared on February 19th, at 7690 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the middle of the month, with a price of about 7593 yuan/ton. The cost side has strong support for BOPP prices

In terms of demand: With downstream membrane companies starting construction after the holiday, market demand has increased, and the number of orders has increased. A small number of enterprises just need to replenish goods, and market demand has a strong support for prices

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that BOPP prices will continue to rise slightly in the near future.