Last week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained stable. As of May 12th, the average price in the domestic metallic silicon market was 13660 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market remained stable, and in terms of the spot market, prices for various brands remained strong after the holiday. Although buyers still engaged in price pressure, there is little room for silicon factories to make concessions at the current price. At present, there are relatively few downstream procurement replenishment operations, so there was a release of post holiday replenishment orders last week. However, the sentiment of transaction pressure is still strong; The futures market is showing a trend of rising and falling. Although the improvement in the macro environment had a positive impact on the industrial silicon market at the beginning of last week, the driving factors for the downstream polycrystalline silicon market continue to be insufficient, and the market performance is very weak. Therefore, industrial silicon remained stable last week

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 13600-13700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of May 11th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 324, with an overall start-up rate of 43.4%, an increase of 20 compared to last week. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, with more manufacturers in the northwest resuming production. At the same time, manufacturers in Sichuan have also resumed production. As the flood season approaches, the number of furnaces opened in the southwest will further increase, and the overall supply situation will increase.

In terms of inventory:

Last week, the inventory of industrial silicon slightly increased. As of May 10th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 370000 tons, an increase of 6000 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse is 107000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to before the holiday, and the social delivery warehouse is 263000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 5000 tons compared to before the holiday/ P>

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to weaken. Against the backdrop of high inventory in silicon material enterprises, there is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. The upstream supply pressure in the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing, and both upstream silicon materials and silicon wafer enterprises are in a high inventory stage. Currently, prices have shown irrational declines, but there is still a risk of oversupply in the later stage, especially with the relatively sluggish demand for terminal installation. The game between upstream and downstream may become more severe in the later stage, and it is expected that upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers may continue to decline.

Last week, the price of organic silicon rebounded and the price of aluminum alloy stabilized. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 13550 yuan/ton. At present, the overall atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC field is mild. After the market gradually recovers, there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. When the market price dropped to a low point in the early stage, some organic silicon DMC factories had relatively good destocking effects. The current overall supply pressure in the market has slightly eased, and the probability of consolidation and stabilization in the future is high. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. Aluminum alloy enterprises have been operating steadily recently, but downstream demand remains resilient, with some recovery in the export end.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon factories in the northwest and southwest regions resumed production last week. Although the cost of industrial silicon has slightly decreased and the price of silicon coal has decreased, the profits of silicon factories have been restored. However, the current market trend is weakening, so the overall operating rate has improved but the increment is small, and the overall supply situation has slightly increased; On the demand side, the prices of polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined, but there are signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. Demand has weakened, but the impact on demand has narrowed after the release of bearish sentiment. The increase in social inventory results in a higher total inventory level. The supply and demand side is bearish for silicon prices due to increased supply and decreased demand. The market is under pressure and the futures market is weakening. However, there is a favorable situation on the cost side and support is temporarily stable. It is expected that industrial silicon will bottom out and stabilize this week.

Stable operation of ethylene oxide prices in May 2024

In May 2024, the price of ethylene oxide remained stable and the price gradient increased within the year. According to data from Business Society, as of May 10th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.38% compared to the market average price of 6400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

Loose prices of some downstream products

At present, the industrial chain is in a state of poor cost oriented transmission. After the upstream raw material ethylene price rose, it remained at a relatively high level, but some downstream product prices slightly fell. Coupled with the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices remaining stable, the demand for ethylene oxide is generally supported.

Future market forecast

Under the support of cost, the price of ethylene oxide may continue to remain strong, but in the later stage, with the resumption of production of early maintenance equipment, there is an expected increase in supply side pressure, with significant upward pressure. Coupled with the unsatisfactory transmission of downstream product prices, short-term fluctuations and stability maintenance are the main reasons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 9th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3287.50 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The post holiday formic acid market is mainly stable, with some companies adjusting their prices. The mainstream quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid companies is between 2800-3400 yuan/ton. Recently, the main raw material methanol market price has fluctuated narrowly and risen, with reasonable cost support. However, downstream buying is flat, and the trading atmosphere on the market is average. Some companies are offering discounts to stimulate shipments, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable but loose.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current market supply and demand performance is deadlocked, with short-term cost support or remaining. The demand side follows suit and performs generally, with more purchases made on demand. Holders are actively shipping, and it is expected that the formic acid market will stabilize slightly in the short term. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to market consumption guidance.

On May 8th, the market price of methyl ethyl carbonate remained stable, with electronic grade market prices ranging from 8300 to 8400 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday.

There is an upward trend in the production of methyl ethyl carbonate in May, and some factories on site have expressed plans to start production; The 100000 ton diethyl carbonate (Phase I) project has been officially put into operation. Driven by the overall supply side of the methyl ethyl carbonate market, the supply has increased and the capacity utilization rate has slightly improved. However, from the demand side, downstream users also need to replenish after the holiday, so the magnitude of the change will not be too large. In early May, demand was in a weak trend.

Overall, the domestic market for methyl ethyl carbonate has remained stable in recent times, and attention will be paid to the recovery of factory operations and the expected boost in downstream demand. With the further recovery of the supply side, the supply and demand situation in the methyl ethyl carbonate market remains abundant in the short term. Analysts from Business Society predict that the weak and narrow range consolidation of the methyl ethyl carbonate market will follow.

In terms of imports:

In the first quarter of 2024, China’s cumulative import of diethylene glycol reached 110200 tons, a decrease of 7400 tons or 6.29% compared to the same period last year. The import volume in January was 43100 tons, the import volume in February was 28400 tons, and the import volume in March was 38700 tons.

The top three main import directions are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 69658 tons, accounting for 63.2%, Kuwait accounting for 18796 tons, accounting for 17.1%, and Oman accounting for 9122 tons, accounting for 8.3%.

The top three import destinations are Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, and Shanghai City. Among them, Jiangsu Province is the mainstream province for domestic diethylene glycol trade, and has a large downstream UPP production capacity, with an import volume of 41500 tons, accounting for 37.7%, ranking first; The second place is Zhejiang Province, with an import volume of 3.47 tons, accounting for 31.5%. Shanghai ranks third with an import volume of 8500 tons, accounting for about 8%.

In terms of exports:

In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative export volume of diethylene glycol in China was 8900 tons, a decrease of 8200 tons or 47.9% compared to the same period last year. The export volume in January was 2400 tons, the export volume in February was 14000 tons, and the export volume in March was 5000 tons. Due to the high operating load of domestic diethylene glycol units in March, the production increased significantly, resulting in a significant increase in export growth.

The main export directions are Brazil, South Korea, and Japan. Brazil ranks first with 1206 tons, accounting for 13.4%, South Korea ranks second with 1062 tons, accounting for 11.8%, and Japan ranks third with 707 tons, accounting for 8%.

The main shipping areas are Shandong Province and Henan Province, with 2088 tons and 2047 tons respectively, accounting for 23% and 22% respectively. Next is Jiangsu Province, with an export volume of 1710 tons, accounting for 19%. The shipment volume from other regions is relatively low, less than 1000 tons.