Stable operation of ethylene oxide prices in May 2024

In May 2024, the price of ethylene oxide remained stable and the price gradient increased within the year. According to data from Business Society, as of May 10th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.38% compared to the market average price of 6400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

Loose prices of some downstream products

At present, the industrial chain is in a state of poor cost oriented transmission. After the upstream raw material ethylene price rose, it remained at a relatively high level, but some downstream product prices slightly fell. Coupled with the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices remaining stable, the demand for ethylene oxide is generally supported.

Future market forecast

Under the support of cost, the price of ethylene oxide may continue to remain strong, but in the later stage, with the resumption of production of early maintenance equipment, there is an expected increase in supply side pressure, with significant upward pressure. Coupled with the unsatisfactory transmission of downstream product prices, short-term fluctuations and stability maintenance are the main reasons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 9th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3287.50 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The post holiday formic acid market is mainly stable, with some companies adjusting their prices. The mainstream quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid companies is between 2800-3400 yuan/ton. Recently, the main raw material methanol market price has fluctuated narrowly and risen, with reasonable cost support. However, downstream buying is flat, and the trading atmosphere on the market is average. Some companies are offering discounts to stimulate shipments, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable but loose.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current market supply and demand performance is deadlocked, with short-term cost support or remaining. The demand side follows suit and performs generally, with more purchases made on demand. Holders are actively shipping, and it is expected that the formic acid market will stabilize slightly in the short term. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to market consumption guidance.

On May 8th, the market price of methyl ethyl carbonate remained stable, with electronic grade market prices ranging from 8300 to 8400 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday.

There is an upward trend in the production of methyl ethyl carbonate in May, and some factories on site have expressed plans to start production; The 100000 ton diethyl carbonate (Phase I) project has been officially put into operation. Driven by the overall supply side of the methyl ethyl carbonate market, the supply has increased and the capacity utilization rate has slightly improved. However, from the demand side, downstream users also need to replenish after the holiday, so the magnitude of the change will not be too large. In early May, demand was in a weak trend.

Overall, the domestic market for methyl ethyl carbonate has remained stable in recent times, and attention will be paid to the recovery of factory operations and the expected boost in downstream demand. With the further recovery of the supply side, the supply and demand situation in the methyl ethyl carbonate market remains abundant in the short term. Analysts from Business Society predict that the weak and narrow range consolidation of the methyl ethyl carbonate market will follow.

In terms of imports:

In the first quarter of 2024, China’s cumulative import of diethylene glycol reached 110200 tons, a decrease of 7400 tons or 6.29% compared to the same period last year. The import volume in January was 43100 tons, the import volume in February was 28400 tons, and the import volume in March was 38700 tons.

The top three main import directions are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 69658 tons, accounting for 63.2%, Kuwait accounting for 18796 tons, accounting for 17.1%, and Oman accounting for 9122 tons, accounting for 8.3%.

The top three import destinations are Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, and Shanghai City. Among them, Jiangsu Province is the mainstream province for domestic diethylene glycol trade, and has a large downstream UPP production capacity, with an import volume of 41500 tons, accounting for 37.7%, ranking first; The second place is Zhejiang Province, with an import volume of 3.47 tons, accounting for 31.5%. Shanghai ranks third with an import volume of 8500 tons, accounting for about 8%.

In terms of exports:

In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative export volume of diethylene glycol in China was 8900 tons, a decrease of 8200 tons or 47.9% compared to the same period last year. The export volume in January was 2400 tons, the export volume in February was 14000 tons, and the export volume in March was 5000 tons. Due to the high operating load of domestic diethylene glycol units in March, the production increased significantly, resulting in a significant increase in export growth.

The main export directions are Brazil, South Korea, and Japan. Brazil ranks first with 1206 tons, accounting for 13.4%, South Korea ranks second with 1062 tons, accounting for 11.8%, and Japan ranks third with 707 tons, accounting for 8%.

The main shipping areas are Shandong Province and Henan Province, with 2088 tons and 2047 tons respectively, accounting for 23% and 22% respectively. Next is Jiangsu Province, with an export volume of 1710 tons, accounting for 19%. The shipment volume from other regions is relatively low, less than 1000 tons.

The price of acetic anhydride rose first and then fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5625.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% compared to the price of acetic anhydride on April 1st, which was 5787.50 yuan/ton.

In April, the acetic anhydride market first rose and then fell, with upstream acetic acid prices rising and then falling. The cost advantage of acetic anhydride is limited; Acetic anhydride enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, weak downstream demand, and follow up on demand when entering the market. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuates with the upstream market.

The acetic acid market rose first and then fell in April

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.84% compared to the price of acetic acid on April 1st, which was 3250 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the acetic acid market was relatively strong and prices continued to rise, mainly due to the shutdown and concentrated load reduction of some domestic acetic acid plants, resulting in a significant decrease in the utilization rate of on-site production capacity. At the same time, downstream replenishment was active, and the market trading atmosphere was good. Under the situation of supply shortage, the price of acetic acid continued to rise; In the latter half of the year, with the resumption of on-site acetic acid plant maintenance, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased, the market supply has increased, and downstream follow-up has weakened. Pre holiday stocking is average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. In order to promote the continuous reduction of acetic acid prices for shipment, actual transactions on the site are limited, and the acetic acid market is weak and downward, which has a negative impact on acetic anhydride.

Future prospects

According to the acetic acid analyst from Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid has fallen, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened; In terms of supply, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply of goods, and manufacturers have a clear shipping sentiment; Downstream demand is poor, and businesses have limited entry into the market for purchasing. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride will remain stable, with limited supplier support. The market for acetic anhydride will remain stable for the time being, and specific attention will be paid to changes in upstream prices.