DBP prices of plasticizers weakened and consolidated in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the DBP price was 9337.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.27% compared to the DBP price of 9362.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. The decline of DBP in April slowed down compared to February and March, and DBP prices in April were weak and consolidated.

The raw material n-butanol fluctuates and falls, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and falls, and the cost of DBP decreases; The decline in downstream spring maintenance work compared to the same period last year, the demand support for plasticizer DBP still exists, and the support for DBP price increases is limited.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the price of n-butanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.63% compared to the price of n-butanol on April 1st, which was 7950 yuan/ton. The overall production capacity utilization rate in the n-butanol field has slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure in the n-butanol market has been alleviated. The supply side provides support to the n-butanol market. The downstream demand for n-butanol is mainly for rigid procurement, and downstream users are stocking up before the May holiday. The overall inquiry atmosphere on site has improved, and there is still support from the demand side. The price of n-butanol fluctuates and consolidates, with weak support for DBP costs.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the price of isooctanol was 9700 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 3.58% compared to the price of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. In April, the price of isooctanol did not continue the downward trend in March. The price of isooctanol remained low and consolidated, while the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and consolidated. Cost support was insufficient, and the downward pressure on isooctanol increased. The upward momentum weakened; Downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm, with limited support from isooctanol.

Downstream enterprises have less than expected maintenance

In April, downstream enterprises began spring maintenance one after another, with an increase in enterprise maintenance. This year, the demand for plastic products in the market has been sluggish, and the order situation is lower than expected, resulting in limited growth in demand for plasticizers. There is still downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future. In April, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased month on month, but the maintenance of enterprises did not meet expectations, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises increased year-on-year. The maintenance is mainly concentrated in mid April, and in the latter half of the year, the maintenance enterprises gradually recover, with a slow increase in production and strong demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of cost: n-butanol fluctuates and falls, isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall, DBP raw material costs decrease, and DBP downward pressure increases; On the supply side, plasticizer DBP manufacturers are operating steadily, and there is an oversupply of DBP; In terms of demand, downstream manufacturers will undergo spring maintenance, but the decrease in operating load is less than expected, and the demand for plasticizers is still supported. In the future, cost reduction will support demand; Expected weak and stable DBP prices in the future.

In April 2024, the center of gravity of the ex factory cash price including tax for magnesium ingots (99.9%, non acid washed, simple packaging) in major domestic production areas shifted upwards, with an overall range of 17900-18800 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

The specific price range for each region on the 28th is as follows:

The ex factory tax inclusive spot exchange in Fugu area is 18300-18400 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Taiyuan area is 18400-18500 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Wenxi area is 18500-18600 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Ningxia is 18300-18400 yuan/ton.

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots in accordance with the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washing, no wooden pallets, and non payment acceptance price, actual order negotiation is the main focus.

Overview of the trend of metallic magnesium in April

According to data from Business Society, the average domestic market price on the 28th was 18666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to the average market price of 18000 yuan/ton in early April (4.1); Compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), the average market price was 20600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.39%.

The magnesium ingot market in March showed a rise followed by a decline for three consecutive weeks, with a similar operating process. Due to the low overall inventory pressure in the factory, coupled with a slight increase in raw material prices, the cost has been supported and the quotation has increased. However, downstream demand is relatively weak. In order to promote transactions, the manufacturer has offered narrow discounts for shipment.

In terms of supply and demand

At the beginning of the month, orders were relatively weak, and as the Qingming Festival approached, the market entered a calm and wait-and-see state, while factory inventory remained at a high level. The operational pressure on factories remains in the middle and later stages, with supply and demand falling into a stalemate. Market demand has not significantly improved, and high price transactions are weak. Downstream customers mainly digest previous inventory and observe market trends, while manufacturers have a strong sentiment of price support due to cost support.

In terms of exports, according to Chinese customs statistics, China exported a total of 125500 tons of various magnesium products from January to March, a year-on-year increase of 21.26%; Accumulated to approximately 385 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.92%. Among them, a total of 74400 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, a year-on-year increase of 38.55%; Magnesium alloy exports totaled 26300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.93%; A total of 21200 tons of magnesium powder were exported, a year-on-year increase of 26.79%.

Ferrosilicon increased by 3.71% in April

In April, the silicon iron futures market fluctuated upwards, and the domestic silicon iron operating rate remained low with little change. The inventory of enterprises was not high, and some production orders were mainly scheduled. The bidding situation has been introduced, and there is a good expectation of an increase in demand or inventory in the future. It is expected that the silicon iron price may be stronger in the future. The news of the price increase of raw material blue charcoal has once again spread, and the second round of price increases has begun. The cost side has certain support, which limits the space for manufacturers to lower prices.

Future Market Forecast

The raw material market for ferrosilicon is gradually rising, and the cost support for magnesium ingots is strengthening. Manufacturers have shown a positive attitude towards prices. However, demand still lacks sustained upward momentum, and it is expected that the domestic magnesium metal market will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, sodium hypophosphate operated steadily this month. As of April 25th, the mainstream price of sodium hypophosphate (2123) in China was 20533.33 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the previous month.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

On April 25th, the benchmark price of yellow phosphorus in Shengyishe was 23593.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.12% compared to the beginning of this month (22660.00 yuan/ton). The yellow phosphorus limit up in mid month was driven by stability.

Demand side:

The raw material sodium hypophosphate runs smoothly, with stable cost support. The main downstream flame retardants are stocked on demand before the holiday, and the market transactions are orderly. The industry is mainly wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere is stable. In April, the retail sales of the terminal new energy vehicle industry significantly increased, indicating a strong momentum in the new energy vehicle market. Multiple factors are driving the improvement of new energy vehicle product strength.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The upstream yellow phosphorus market is operating steadily, with the main downstream flame retardants and average market trading. The linkage effect of the product is that sodium hypophosphate runs smoothly. However, there are favorable factors for terminal new energy vehicles, and the industrial chain is clearly positive. The weak consolidation of the sodium hypophosphate market continues.

This week (4.16-4.24), the market for calcium formate remained generally stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 24th, the average price of industrial grade 98% calcium formate in China is 3807.50 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as last week’s price.

Trend of raw material formic acid:

Recently, the formic acid market has remained stable with little movement, and there has been an increase in market negotiation space. At this stage, the market price of raw material methanol is mainly rising, while raw material sulfuric acid is generally stable, with increased cost support. The supply side support is average, with some companies offering discounts to facilitate transactions, and downstream industries mainly supplementing positions at appropriate prices according to demand. The trading atmosphere in the formic acid market is still good, and companies ship according to the market. The mainstream quotation range is between 3100-3400 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of downstream products in the industrial chain:

Calcium formate, as a commonly used early strength agent to improve the early strength of cement, is widely used in dry powder mortar. It has the performance of accelerating hydration and improving the early strength of mortar, especially at low temperatures. Calcium formate can significantly improve the early strength of mortar.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, cement in East China has recently experienced a weak decline, with prices at 298.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 304.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.01% and a month on month decrease of 1.30%. The current price has dropped by 27.96% year-on-year.

From January to February 2024, the national real estate development investment was about 1.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%, which is 0.6 percentage points narrower than that of January to December 2023; Among them, residential investment was 882.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.7%. From January to February, the construction area of real estate development enterprises reached 6.669 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%; The newly constructed area of housing is 94.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. Among them, the newly started residential construction area decreased by 30.6%. In recent years, real estate investment has gradually declined, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.

At present, the domestic calcium formate market is showing a trend of weak domestic demand, and the downstream real estate industry continues to show a weak trend. Insufficient demand for industrial grade calcium formate has led to low market trading activity. At present, the price of calcium formate is around 3800 yuan/ton, and the market price is relatively stable, but lacks obvious upward momentum.

Business Society calcium formate analysts believe that the short-term changes in cost and demand have limited impact on the market trend of calcium formate. Market participants are mostly wait-and-see, and it is expected that the price of calcium formate will consolidate and operate in the near future. More changes need to pay attention to market news guidance.

This week, the domestic price of polyvinyl alcohol remained stable and rose. As of April 23rd, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol in Shengyishe was 12266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% compared to last week (12233.00 yuan/ton). During the week, the polyvinyl alcohol market was mainly driven by first-time transactions, with average support for exports. Dealers often offered more discounts for shipments, and the cautious attitude of middle and downstream merchants remains.

Supply side:

This week, the market price of vinyl acetate fluctuated and fell. The current price of vinyl acetate raw material acetic acid continues to rise, and the price of acetic acid continues to rise. As of April 22, the benchmark price of acetic acid for Shengyishe was 3450.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.29% compared to the beginning of this month (3100.00 yuan/ton). In the past 10 days, it has increased by 6.15%, in 15 days it has increased by 10.40%, in 20 days it has increased by 11.29%, and in 30 days it has increased by 15.00%. The domestic market price of vinyl acetate remained stable during the week, with a price range of around 6343 yuan/ton.

The market price of calcium carbide is also stable. As of April 23, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shengyishe was 3000.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. Poor cost support; Mainstream manufacturers in East China have parked their equipment, and the market’s spot resources have decreased compared to before. However, downstream demand continues to decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Actual market transactions are limited, and the market atmosphere is weak;

Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) Industry Chain

On the demand side:

From the perspective of domestic demand for polyvinyl alcohol, polymerization additives, fabric slurries, adhesives, vinylon fibers, papermaking slurries and coatings, and building coatings products have weak consumption of raw materials. Enterprises mainly purchase on a per order basis, and the accumulation of raw material inventory is limited. Production is coming to an end, and the demand for raw materials is weakening. There is currently no good news for other terminal enterprises, and there is a slight room for concessions in the price of polyvinyl alcohol in the later stage.

Overall

Supply side support is positive, but there is still a strong sentiment of price support, with a focus on price protection, and the mentality of cargo holders is still acceptable. Downstream users will continue to purchase on demand, and it is expected that the price of polyvinyl alcohol will remain stable in recent market discussions.