According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 30th to January 6th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 10800 yuan/ton to 11762 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 8.91% during the cycle. This week, the butadiene market continued to rise, and the available supply of goods in the spot market was generally tight. Holders of goods had a strong willingness to raise prices, and the spot market quotation was overall upward. Boosted by this news, spot market offers generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream high-level receiving capacity gradually declines. As the Spring Festival approaches, some pre holiday purchasing demand has been released downstream, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. Sinopec has raised prices twice in a row this week, currently at 12000 yuan/ton. As of January 6th, the delivery price to Shandong region is 12100 yuan/ton.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains positive. As of January 3rd, international crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.96 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $76.51 per barrel.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 10900 yuan/ton as of the 23rd, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 10500 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 14900 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the same period last week. Currently, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber plant construction is basically stable, and as of the end of the month, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber construction is around 70%. As of January 6th, the mainstream market price for butadiene styrene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 14750-15050 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: In terms of supply, the butadiene market has been tight in the near future, with demand approaching the Spring Festival and downstream intentions to replenish inventory, resulting in good market demand performance. Overall, the performance of the butadiene market is relatively strong, and it is expected that there will still be some upward space in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 3rd, the average selling price of PET is 6207 yuan/ton, and the price trend shows an upward trend.

Recently, the rise in international crude oil prices has driven the prices of polyester dual raw materials to rise synchronously. Against the backdrop of rising costs, the PET market prices continue to rise. The new production facility is about to be put into operation, and it is expected that the supply side will increase in the future. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream market’s willingness to replenish is not strong, so the subsequent growth of the PET market may be limited.

Looking ahead, starting from the end of December, with the gradual increase in stocking demand during the Spring Festival, as well as the potential increase in operating rates in the oil and PET sheet industries, domestic demand for PET is expected to see a slight increase. This trend is expected to provide some support for the PET market. Therefore, in the subsequent market trends, we need to closely monitor the direction of peripheral policies and relevant news on the production of new devices. Meanwhile, changes in market demand will also become a key factor affecting the price trend of the PET market.

The phthalic anhydride market stopped falling and consolidated in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.65% compared to the price of 6850 yuan/ton on December 1st. Stable operation of phthalic anhydride equipment and sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride; Plasticizer companies are operating at a high level, and there is active demand for phthalic anhydride procurement, which supports the demand for phthalic anhydride.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

In December, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants remained stable at a high level, with 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at full capacity. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers was stable, and the supply was sufficient.

The cost of raw materials such as benzene decreased in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of ortho xylene was 6700 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.90% compared to the price of ortho xylene at 6900 yuan/ton on December 1st. In December, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride decreased, increasing the downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride. The weak adjustment of industrial naphthalene prices has led to a decrease in the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride. There is significant downward pressure on the overall cost of phthalic anhydride raw materials and the price of phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: The DOP market fluctuated and fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the DOP price was 8226.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 8.99% compared to the DOP price of 9038.75 yuan/ton on December 1st. The price of raw materials has fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the downward trend of DOP is slower than that of isooctanol. The profit of plasticizer DOP is high, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production is high. The operating rate of plasticizers is high, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The demand support for phthalic anhydride still exists, the inventory of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is low, and the situation of new orders is average. The upward support for phthalic anhydride still exists.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, the price of industrial naphthalene is weakly consolidating, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and there is significant pressure for the cost of phthalic anhydride to decline; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers remains stable at a high level, while the demand support for phthalic anhydride still exists. Overall, there is significant downward pressure on costs, supported by downstream demand, and it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1548 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1546 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.49%. On December 30th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.49% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.25% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1750 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1556 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% and a decrease of 44.87% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25882 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.52% compared to the zinc price of 25494 yuan/ton on December 23rd.

This week’s market analysis

This week, due to the closure of the foreign market during the Christmas holiday, the overall performance of the domestic market showed a relatively stable trend, with a slight rebound.

Macro policy orientation: Recently, the National Financial Work Conference emphasized that one of the focus areas in 2025 will be to support and expand domestic demand, while vigorously boosting the consumer market to promote sustained and healthy economic development.

Fundamentals

From an industry perspective, some mines in certain regions of China have implemented production reduction measures, resulting in ongoing supply pressure on the mining sector. As a result, the raw material inventory of refineries is limited to a certain extent, which in turn maintains production at a relatively weak level. However, there are signs of a slight increase in processing fees both domestically and internationally.

Demand side

In terms of demand, the downstream market has not yet fully recovered from the impact of the off-season, and the overall demand performance is average, lacking significant growth momentum.

Inventory situation

It is worth noting that the social inventory in the zinc market is currently at a low level and showing a decreasing trend. Affected by this, zinc prices may maintain a high volatility trend in the short term, lacking significant upward or downward momentum.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, the domestic market has shown a relatively stable operating trend this week under the combined influence of macro and fundamental factors. In the future, with further clarification of policy guidance and gradual recovery of market demand, the industry may usher in new changes and opportunities.