This week, the atmosphere in the domestic polyvinyl alcohol market continued to be light. As of May 23, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol for Shengyishe was 12250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.41% compared to the beginning of this month (12300.00 yuan/ton). During the week, the polyvinyl alcohol market was mainly driven by first-time transactions, while the expectation of transactions in the polyvinyl alcohol market weakened. Dealers offered more discounts for shipments, and downstream purchasing intentions remained lackluster.

Supply side:

Recently, due to insufficient demand, the price of calcium carbide has been declining for a long time, resulting in an overall loss situation in the industry. As of May 23, the benchmark price of Shengyishe calcium carbide was 2833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.73% compared to the beginning of this month (2883.33 yuan/ton). Downstream unloading trucks still show a regional shortage of arrivals, but the upward momentum is weak. Firstly, it comes from the landing of downstream maintenance. In mid to late May, The maintenance of PVC and BDO is increasing gradually, and the demand for calcium carbide is weakening.

Recently, the price of acetic acid, the raw material for vinyl acetate, has been stable. As of May 23rd, the benchmark price of acetic acid for Shengyishe is 3250.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. The expected increase in supply side is due to the scarcity of planned maintenance information and sluggish downstream domestic demand, PTA partial maintenance, with enterprise maintenance in the northwest and east of vinyl acetate. Acetate is operated under reduced load based on cost and export factors.

Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) Industry Chain

On the demand side:

From the perspective of domestic demand for polyvinyl alcohol, polymerization additives, fabric slurries, adhesives, vinylon fibers, papermaking slurries and coatings, and building coatings products have weak consumption of raw materials. Enterprises mainly purchase on a per order basis, and the accumulation of raw material inventory is limited. Production is coming to an end, and the demand for raw materials is weakening. There is currently no good news for other terminal enterprises, and there is a slight room for concessions in the price of polyvinyl alcohol in the later stage.

Overall

The atmosphere of the polyvinyl alcohol market continues to be light, with downstream users maintaining a strong demand for purchases. The mentality of the cargo holders is empty, and the focus of negotiations is on the low-end. There is currently no positive support for the polyvinyl alcohol market, and it is expected that the polyvinyl alcohol market will continue to be weak and consolidate in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On the weekend, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7290.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55%. The current price has increased by 0.41% month on month, and has decreased by 13.11% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been mainly volatile and consolidating in the past three months, with a slight increase this week. There have been no new orders signed for potassium chloride border trade, and the domestic potassium chloride market remains strong at a high level. Downstream purchases of essential goods are maintained, and potassium carbonate manufacturers are scheduling shipments, resulting in a volatile upward trend in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7200-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

This week, the domestic potassium chloride market experienced high volatility. As of this weekend, potassium chloride has been offered at 2516 yuan/ton. The domestic potassium chloride market continues its previous consolidation trend, with a calm market performance. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the moderate arrival volume this month and the basic balance between supply and demand in the domestic market, there has been no surplus situation in the market, and the price remains rigid and strong. However, downstream factories generally have a resistance mentality towards high prices, and the current market is in a weak season. Most enterprises have replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has remained strong at a high level, with strong cost support. It is expected that the potassium carbonate market will mainly rise in the short term. The long-term market still needs to be watched. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers across the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts from Business Society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.).

Price increase of neopentyl glycol enterprises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the price of neopentyl glycol was quoted at 10650 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.45% compared to the price of 10100 yuan/ton quoted on May 15. The quotation of neopentyl glycol enterprises has significantly increased, with strong cost support. The neopentyl glycol market is operating strongly, and the inventory of neopentyl glycol factories is low. Currently, orders are being scheduled until next month. The supply of goods on site is tight, and the inquiry atmosphere is strong. Traders are reluctant to sell spot goods, resulting in an increase in the price of neopentyl glycol in the market.

The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22nd, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 8525 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 8.95% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 7825 yuan/ton on May 13th; Compared to May 1st, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 11.44% to 7650 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isobutyraldehyde has surged, supported by downstream demand, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship. The price of isobutyraldehyde has stabilized after rising.

Raw material formaldehyde prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22nd, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1245 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% compared to the formaldehyde price of 1237.5 yuan/ton on May 15th; Compared to May 1st, the price of formaldehyde increased by 2.68% to 1212.50 yuan/ton. In May, the price of raw material methanol increased significantly, with strong cost support. Downstream purchases remained in demand, while formaldehyde prices followed the changes in methanol. Methanol prices remained stable at high levels, with strong cost support and fluctuating prices. Cost support, there is still momentum for the price increase of neopentyl glycol.

Market Overview and Forecast

An analyst at Shengyishe believes that in terms of cost, formaldehyde and isobutyraldehyde prices have fluctuated and risen, while the cost of new pentanediol has increased significantly. In terms of supply and demand, the fundamentals of new pentanediol are relatively balanced, with low inventory in new pentanediol factories and tight supply on the market. Under the stimulation of buying up but not buying down, new pentanediol traders are reluctant to sell, and the support for the price increase of new pentanediol is increasing. Overall, the cost support for neopentyl glycol has weakened, neopentyl glycol manufacturers are reluctant to sell, neopentyl glycol supply is tight, and downstream demand support is limited. It is expected that the price of neopentyl glycol will remain strong and stable in the future.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, starting from May 13th, with terminal demand supporting, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise. On May 13th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 943 yuan/ton. On May 21st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 980 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.89%.

Terminal demand supports the continuous rise of hydrogen peroxide market

Starting from May 13th, the market for terminal caprolactam continued to rise, and manufacturers increased their purchases of hydrogen peroxide water. The hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise, with an overall quotation of 1000-1030 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 1000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 60 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 920 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is about 1030 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 30 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that at the end of May, terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide fell, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise weakly in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the carbon black market price was weak this week. As of the 20th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was at 9533 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of high-temperature coal tar experienced a slight decline this week. As of current data, the market price of coal tar in Shandong region has dropped to 4600 yuan per ton. Due to the significant increase in coke prices, this has greatly boosted the production power of coking enterprises, leading to a significant increase in the market supply of coal tar. The downstream deep processing market is currently facing the dilemma of market downturn, with reduced production load of enterprises and few large transaction orders in the market. This market atmosphere has formed a strong pressure on raw material prices, and it is expected that in the short term, the price of high-temperature coal tar will continue to maintain a weak trend.

Production situation: The supply of carbon black in the market is relatively sufficient this week, and most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable production.

In terms of terminals, the demand for tire replacement markets at home and abroad has been sluggish, and the shipping pace of the tire industry has significantly slowed down. Recently, some tire companies have been producing at low loads to alleviate pressure, while the sales performance of downstream rubber products industry has been lackluster. Overall, the circulation speed of goods is average, and manufacturers mainly make up for shortages. The overall enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black is average, and the fundamental support is weak. As a result, the shipping volume of carbon black enterprises has become slow, and the momentum of price increases is clearly lacking momentum.

Outlook for the future: Strong pressure from the terminal, weak prices in the high-temperature coal tar market, and relatively limited support for the cost of carbon black; At the same time, the downstream market has a relatively low demand for carbon black raw materials, and the demand side is still weak. Therefore, the carbon black market is expected to continue to maintain the current weak operating trend.