After a narrow rise in the domestic ABS market in early February, the prices of most grades of spot goods remained flat. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11912.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In early February, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry had limited changes, with a load of about 73% roughly unchanged from the pre holiday level. The average weekly production within the month is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has rebounded to over 170000 tons. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. Although the pre sales of petrochemical plants were good before the holiday, recent shipments have been hindered, and production companies have given up on their early month gains. Overall, the recent supply side has provided average support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: In February, the three upstream materials of ABS showed mixed trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. The domestic acrylonitrile market maintains an upward trend. The low load situation in the industry continues, and the overall inventory position is low. The supply return process is slow, and prices are running steadily. However, downstream purchasing power has weakened after the holiday, and the overall market performance remains strong at a high level.

The butadiene market remains strong at a high level. Although the spot market has followed the tight pattern before the holiday, with the continuous rise of spot prices in the early stage, it has affected the downstream high-level receiving ability. In addition, there are expectations of relaxation in the future market on the supply side, leading to a stalemate and confrontation in the market. It is expected that butadiene may continue to be sorted out.

Styrene first rose and then fell in early February. The styrene plant within ten days will continue to operate at the pre holiday level, while there will be a slight weakening of supply side support due to the accumulation of cargo at the port before the holiday. Combined with the impact of the decline in crude oil prices, the price of styrene has fallen back.

In terms of demand, the export demand for some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector has been fully released in January, and downstream purchasing power has weakened during and after the Spring Festival. The process of resuming work in terminal factories during holidays is slow, and the overall load level is not high. In addition, some terminal enterprises were stimulated by the increase in ABS cost value in the early stage and engaged in purchasing and replenishment operations, so there is still inventory that needs to be digested. Overall, the demand side has a slower pace in providing market support.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS market remained stagnant after a surge in February. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant remains basically unchanged, inventory has increased, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased. Insufficient expansion on the demand side, regression still requires a process. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may continue to consolidate in the short term, with unemployed individuals returning to the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 8th, the average selling price of PET is 6347 yuan/ton, with a slight increase after a downward trend.

During the day, the crude oil and its raw material market showed a strong rebound trend, providing more solid support for the cost side of PET and driving the center of gravity of market prices upward. However, the recovery of terminal demand is still lagging behind, and there are many unstable factors in the external environment, which has led downstream industries to adopt a cautious attitude towards chasing prices and have a weak willingness.

In response to the current market situation, Business Society believes that cost drivers will dominate in the short term, and PET market prices are expected to rise along with the upward trend of the raw material market. However, at the same time, the gradual increase in supply side pressure may also exert a certain drag on the upward trend of prices. Therefore, the actual trend of the PET market in the future will depend on the combined effects of multiple factors, including the operation of subsequent equipment, changes in demand, and the cost support brought about by changes in the crude oil market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 6, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7200 yuan/ton. Compared with January 25 (reference price of n-butanol is 7066 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 134 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.17%.

Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, on the first day of construction, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, saw an upward trend. On the 5th, n-butanol factories in Shandong province gradually increased the shipment price of n-butanol by around 100-150 yuan/ton. As of February 6th, the reference market price for n-butanol in Shandong province is 7200-7250 yuan/ton.

Market influencing factors

On the demand side: After the holiday, downstream n-butanol gradually returned to the market, and downstream users purchased according to their needs. The low prices in the market gradually disappeared, and the demand side provided certain market support for n-butanol.

On the supply side: After the holiday, the overall supply of n-butanol production plants was stable, with small inventory levels and controllable supply side pressure. The overall supply side also provided support for the n-butanol market.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ February 6th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7200-7250 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7200-7250 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7500-7600 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7500-7600 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in Shandong region is mild, and the transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable. The mentality of the industry is good. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mainly operate in a stable to strong direction, and more attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand news.

On the first day after the holiday, major mainstream phenol markets in China experienced a rise. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7820 yuan/ton on February 5th, with an average increase of around 50-80 yuan/ton on the first day nationwide.

The prices of dual raw materials have risen, and negotiations for pure benzene in East China are at 7700-7750 yuan/ton, supported by favorable cost factors. Phenol traders are tentatively reporting high prices. On the first day after the holiday, the pace of factory entry into the market was relatively slow, and some factories postponed production. Downstream end users inquired more about actual orders and restocking was not yet abundant, resulting in low trading volume. After the holiday, the Guangxi Huayi phenol ketone plant was shut down for maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate dropped to 80%. On February 5th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 22nd/ Compared to pre holiday fluctuations

East China region/ 7820./ 80

Shandong region/ 7780./ 20

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7780./ 0

South China region/ 7900./ 100

From the perspective of Business Society, there is not much pressure on short-term costs and spot supply, which may support a slight upward trend in the phenol market. In the later stage, the terminal will pay attention to the development of the demand side.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China was generally stable in January, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of January 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16483.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.20% compared to January 1st.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: As we enter January, the domestic PC aggregation enterprises have a stable pattern of load absorption, with very limited changes. The average monthly operating rate of the industry has decreased by 1% to 77%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply of goods is still abundant. The supply-demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged. The inventory position is relatively high, manufacturers are cautious in pricing, and the market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant recovery of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the bulls gradually ran out in early January, and downstream demand remained stable. After the upward movement of bisphenol A prices was blocked, it entered a consolidation market. However, before the holiday, upstream crude oil prices surged significantly, boosting the confidence of industry players. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. At the end of last year, some export orders were placed in advance in the market, and in January, the overall logic of weak rigid demand procurement returned. The pre holiday stocking efforts were average, and the industry’s wait-and-see sentiment was biased. During the month, most downstream factories will be on vacation, and the load on end enterprises will decline. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

In January, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation, with a clear trend during holidays. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, providing sufficient support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants slightly decreased by 1%, while the supply remained loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. At the beginning of February, the downstream logic revolves around pre holiday inventory preparation, and the return of operators still needs a process. It is expected that PC will continue to focus on organizing and running in the short term.