Bromine is the only non-metallic substance in liquid form at room temperature, with the chemical formula Br2. It is dark reddish brown in color and has an irritating odor. Bromine has active physicochemical properties and can form a wide variety of inorganic bromides as well as a large amount of brominated organic compounds. Due to the unique physical and chemical properties of different bromides, bromine has become a widely used basic chemical raw material, and is one of the key raw materials in chemical production and even the entire industrial production.

Take a look at the price of bromine: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine is weak in 2023, with an average market price of 44600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 23000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 48.43%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that in 2023, prices only increased in July, August, October, and November, while prices decreased in the other eight months. The largest increase was in August, with prices rising by 21.08%, and the largest decrease was in March, with prices falling by 20.97%.

Taking a look at the annual comparison chart of bromine, it can be seen that the overall price of bromine has been weak this year, with prices remaining at a low level in all months except for January and February.

Let’s take a closer look at the price trend. The first stage, from January to the end of June, saw a continuous decline in prices. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was 44600 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average market price was 18000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 59.64%. In the first half of 2023, prices continued to decline unilaterally, and by the end of June, prices had reached the lowest historical level for the whole year. At the beginning of the year, due to the Spring Festival, bromine manufacturers still had a small amount of inventory, mainly consuming inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are operating at low loads, with a low willingness to purchase and mainly relying on multi-dimensional and rigid demand procurement. Downstream demand was weak and continued until the end of June.

In the second stage, prices will increase from mid July to the end of August, rising from the market average of 18000 yuan/ton in early July to around 24800 yuan/ton on August 25th, with a price increase of 37.78%. Mainly because in early July, a large bromine enterprise in Shandong stopped for one week of maintenance. The main reason for the mid month is due to the arrival of the rainy season, which reduces the production of seawater bromine brine and slightly reduces the production of bromine. Downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand in recent times. The attitude of bromine enterprises in the industry is average. The price of bromine enterprises is rising, and downstream enterprises are repeatedly observing, creating a strong gaming atmosphere.

In the third stage, from the end of August to December, the price will be around 24200-25300 yuan/ton for consolidation. As the temperature decreases, bromine companies are also preparing for winter storage. Enterprises focus on maintaining a stable mindset and have a clear intention to stabilize prices. They tend to hold onto goods and be reluctant to sell, but with weak downstream expectations, it is difficult to raise prices. The supply-demand game is dominated by price consolidation.

Bromine prices will continue to remain low in 2023, can prices improve in 2024

On the supply side, the supply of bromine in China has changed relatively little, and the overall supply trend is relatively stable. Due to the increasing reduction of underground brine resources, the increase in bromine production capacity in China is slow.

In terms of import and export: Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of the domestic bromine market in China is not high, and bromine heavily relies on imports. The self-sufficiency rate of bromine in China has maintained a low level in recent years. However, the import dependence of bromine is high, and the supply of the bromine industry chain is restricted by countries such as Israel, the United States, and India, which hinders the downstream development of bromine in China. Customs data shows that in December 2023, the import of bromine was 7367 tons, an increase of 836.3 tons or 12.8% compared to the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2023 was 55138.22 tons, a decrease of 4174.28 tons or 7.04% compared to the same period last year.

In terms of flame retardants, long-term sluggish downstream demand has led to slow inventory consumption by manufacturers. The main flame retardant manufacturer, tetrabromobisphenol A, maintains low load operation and low prices. The price of tetrabromobisphenol A is close to the cost line, resulting in a significant reduction in profits. At the same time, there is a lack of order support. In terms of bromine procurement, sporadic replenishment is the main focus, while flame retardant manufacturers only rely on replenishment for immediate needs.

Prediction: According to the analysis of Business Society, the price of bromine has been weak in recent times, and the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have received average support recently. Market transactions are weak, and bromine enterprises mainly consume inventory, taking advantage of downstream opportunities to lower prices. The supply of bromine in our country has changed relatively little, and we need to rely on imported bromine from abroad. Overall, it is expected that the price of bromine will be weak in the short term. However, as the weather warms up after the year, enterprises will resume production and downstream demand will recover. Bromine may recover after the year, depending on downstream market demand.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a narrow rise, with spot prices of various brands increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 10812.50 yuan/ton, a+1.14% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: At the end of last year, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, and due to supply pressure, the load of enterprises decreased independently. Recently, the operating rate of ABS polymerization enterprises has been lowered to around 66%, resulting in stable production and a continued decline in inventory due to the manufacturer’s destocking operations. But the profit situation of the enterprise has not improved, and the improvement of supply side pressure is limited.

In terms of raw materials, the recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, among which the acrylonitrile market is relatively weak. The rise in raw material propylene prices provides reasonable cost support for acrylonitrile. But the supply of acrylonitrile is relatively loose, and the market is not buying well. But fortunately, some forward contracts and pre holiday stocking dragged the bottom, resulting in weak prices and stagnant operations.

Recently, the atmosphere of the domestic butadiene market has been high, with a significant increase last week. The main production enterprise Sinopec has raised its quotation twice by 200 yuan/ton, and a small number of bidding sources have significantly increased their prices to complete transactions. At the same time, the external prices have continued to rise, bringing a significant boost to the domestic butadiene market. The downstream synthetic rubber market trend is relatively strong, driving the market’s quotation to rise broadly at one point.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has risen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. The increase in maintenance of styrene units has led to a contraction in market supply. The transaction in the market is still good, with a slight upward trend in the market.

In terms of demand: Last week, the main ABS terminals, including downstream factories in the home appliance industry, continued to have poor stocking enthusiasm. The main logic revolved around buying on dips and digesting inventory. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have increased their holiday arrangements, and their procurement operations tend to be weak and require production to be maintained. At the same time, there has been no increase in volume for forward contracts. Midstream traders are attempting to sell at high prices, with average spot circulation and demand side support for a flat market.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has been balanced, with increased support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in production, partially easing supply pressure. On the demand side, consumption is average, and merchant offers are boosted by upstream news, resulting in higher prices. The current market situation before the holiday is heavy, and trading may gradually weaken. It is expected that the ABS market may still shift towards a bearish trend.

The epoxy propane market remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 19th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9137.50 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on January 18th was 6825.75, a decrease of 0.62% compared to January 1st (6868.25). This week (1.15-1.19), the domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices have risen, with increased cost support.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the week, the supply was stable, and downstream inquiries and purchases were still active. The actual market transactions were average, and some factories slightly accumulated inventory in the middle of the week, but inventory pressure was controllable. Downstream observation and follow-up were the main focus. On January 19th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was 9050-9150 yuan/ton.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost and supply support still exist, and downstream follow-up is still possible. It is expected that the epoxy propane market may operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Product name: 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate

Latest price on January 17th: 2240 yuan/ton

On January 17th, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region remained temporarily stable. At present, the spot market for titanium concentrate is slightly tight, and the market quotation is relatively firm. The market situation for downstream titanium dioxide enterprises is still acceptable, but under cost pressure, they still mainly purchase according to demand, so they should be cautious and observe. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1550-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2200-2280 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton.

In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate remains strong and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has experienced a decline and then an increase since January. As of January 16th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared to the beginning of the month. The market fluctuations in this round are mainly influenced by cost factors.

In the crude oil market, the disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the situation is not clear. There is no sign of cooling in the short term, and oil prices still receive significant support. However, the US oil inventory has accumulated, and the market is once again concerned about economic weakness, which has significantly dragged down oil prices. Therefore, under the long short game, crude oil prices are mainly volatile, but there is still support for PTA costs. As of January 15th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $78.15 per barrel.

Since January, from the perspective of PTA supply side, the production capacity operating rate has remained stable with little change, and the industry operating rate has remained around 82%. With the restart of a 2 million ton PTA plant in South China on January 15th, products have been produced and the industry load has increased to around 84%. The pressure of sufficient supply of goods still exists. But next, the load of the 4.5 million ton PTA plant in South China will be adjusted from the original 80% to around 60%. The 3.6 million ton PTA unit of Yisheng New Materials Line 2 is scheduled for maintenance by the end of this month and is expected to last for one month. Negative load reduction and increased maintenance expectations, PTA stopped falling and rebounded. As of January 16th, the average market price in East China was 5794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.29% from the beginning of the month.

Driven by a strong atmosphere in the raw material market, the downstream yarn market has improved. As of January 16th, the reference price for the pure polyester yarn market in Shandong Province was reported at 12475 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40% from the beginning of the month. However, the order volume in spring and summer is not as high as in previous years, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, restocking is gradually coming to an end, making it difficult for prices to continue to rise. We maintain a wait-and-see attitude towards raw material procurement and mainly buy on demand.

Analysts from Business Society believe that warmer raw material costs have a greater impact on the price of polyester staple fibers. From the perspective of its own supply side, there is a maintenance plan for polyester staple fibers, but the supply of goods is still sufficient. Maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude downstream and not rush to purchase goods. Therefore, the price of polyester staple fibers may continue to rise in the short term, but the extent is limited by the drag of supply and demand.