Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region fluctuated and increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong region increased from 12950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12962.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.10%. Weekend prices increased by 35.50% year-on-year. On January 7th, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.31, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 30.68% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 171.15% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of Shandong isooctanol have slightly increased their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6868.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6638.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.45% in weekend prices. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market situation of isooctanol, the DOP market price fluctuated and fell this week. The DOP price dropped from 12091.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12058.33 yuan/ton on the weekend, a decrease of 0.28%, and the weekend price increased by 22.42% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In mid to late January, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is average. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to decline this week. On January 5th, the sulfur price was 1013.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00% compared to January 1st, which was 1066.67 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 4.40% compared to the previous month.

This week, the sulfur market continued to decline, and the demand side of the terminal consumer market came to an end. Downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened, and most factories focused on demand, resulting in a sluggish market trading atmosphere; On the supply side, some refineries in Shandong region have increased their burden on equipment, leading to an increase in factory inventory and sufficient supply of goods in the market. At the same time, there is a high expectation of goods arriving at the port this month, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market and an increasing intention to discharge inventory. As a result, the sulfur prices of refineries continue to decrease. As of the 5th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 950-1040 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur ranges from 900 to 1130 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market has significantly declined, with the daily average price of domestic sulfuric acid on January 5th at 252.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.85% compared to the price of 274.00 yuan/ton on January 1st. The on-site equipment operates stably, the market supply is sufficient, and enterprises are actively shipping. However, downstream demand is sluggish, and the market trading atmosphere is bearish. Acid companies have poor shipments, forcing the price of sulfuric acid to be lowered. At the same time, raw material prices have fallen, and cost bearish effects have weakened the sulfuric acid market.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 3303.33 yuan/ton on January 5th, a decrease of 1.98% compared to the price of 3370.00 yuan/ton on January 1st. The utilization rate of ammonium phosphate production capacity has decreased, and the market supply has decreased to some extent. However, downstream demand continues to be weak, with fewer market inquiries and weak on-site transactions. As a result, the sales pressure on enterprises has increased, and the price of ammonium phosphate has continued to decline.

Future Market Forecast

The sulfur analyst from Business Society believes that the sulfur plant on site is operating normally, the market supply of goods is stable, and with the continuous entry of port resources into the market, the pressure on sulfur sales is high. The terminal market transactions are flat, downstream demand is limited, and there is a lack of positive supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to operate weakly, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of December 29th, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 46000 yuan/ton. Overall, lithium iron phosphate showed a broad downward trend in December, with the mainstream price currently around 46000 yuan/ton. The price in early December was 52000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of December was 46000 yuan/ton. The price for the entire month of December decreased by 11.54%. The dual pressure of cost and demand has put pressure on lithium iron phosphate to move forward.

In December, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly experienced a narrow decline, with an overall price drop of 15.34% in November, reaching 12000 yuan/ton. Currently, lithium iron phosphate is showing a continuous downward trend, mainly influenced by upstream lithium carbonate, passively following the decline. Upstream lithium carbonate is experiencing a cliff like decline. Lithium iron phosphate is under tremendous cost pressure, with almost no support on the cost side. Currently, downstream demand has not met expectations, and demand is clearly insufficient. Manufacturers continue to lower prices, Significant decline, continuous decrease in enterprise operating load, difficulty in improving industry demand, and low market sentiment.

Commodity index: On December 28th, the chemical index was 879 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that the market for lithium iron phosphate is mainly in a downward trend, with upstream lithium carbonate continuing to decline. There is insufficient support for cost side benefits, and downstream demand is weak, making it difficult for lithium iron phosphate to have a turning point in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of the domestic rare earth market in 2023 has declined. From the rare earth industry price index chart, it can be seen that the rare earth index at the beginning of the year was 664, and as of December 28, it was 459, an overall decrease of 205 points. In early February, the domestic rare earth industry reached its highest price, and in early May, the rare earth price was at a low level for the year. The trend of the domestic rare earth industry price index in 2023 is as follows:

In 2023, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has significantly declined. The price of neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year was 770000 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year was 447500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 41.88%; The price of neodymium metal at the beginning of the year was 952500 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year was 567500 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 40.42%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year was 710000 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year was 447500 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 36.75%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy at the beginning of the year was 865000 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year was 547500 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 36.71%; The price of praseodymium oxide at the beginning of the year was 695000 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year was 465000 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 33.09%; The price of praseodymium metal at the beginning of the year was 915000 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year was 600000 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 34.43%. The trends of each product are as follows:

In 2023, the market price of heavy rare earths slightly declined. According to statistics, the market price of dysprosium oxide in China was 2.5 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 2.48 million yuan/ton at the end of the year, with a year-on-year decline of 0.8%; At the beginning of the year, the price of dysprosium metal was 3.21 million yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, it was 3.175 million yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.09% throughout the year; The beginning price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.485 million yuan/ton, and the end of year market price was 2.47 million yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 0.60%. The specific trend is as follows:

From the rare earth trend chart, it can be seen that the domestic trend of light and heavy rare earths has differentiated, with the overall decline mainly concentrated in the first quarter. The prices of light and heavy rare earths have significantly decreased, and the light rare earths market has been in a low and volatile stage in the later period. However, the trend of heavy rare earths market has increased in the second and third quarters, almost flattening the decline in the first quarter. The overall analysis is as follows:

Phase 1: The domestic rare earth market prices significantly decreased in the first quarter. At this stage, there are few inquiries from downstream magnetic material enterprises in China, and magnetic material factories mainly consume existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, and the rare earth market is under pressure and declining. In addition, with the simultaneous decline in prices of rare earth metals and oxides, the inverted cost of raw materials in metal factories is still difficult to alleviate in the short term. Some metal factories have reduced their production burden, resulting in poor downstream procurement and oversupply, leading to a significant drop in market prices.

Phase 2: The trend of light and heavy rare earths is differentiated in the second, third, and fourth quarters. With the continuous resumption of work and production by domestic rare earth manufacturers, domestic on-site supply has increased, and inquiries for praseodymium neodymium products in the market are relatively quiet. Transactions are mainly in demand, while the light rare earth market is mainly volatile. In addition, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is still inverted, mainly to ensure the supply of long-term orders. Intermediaries are cautious in replenishing small quantities, and transactions are limited. At this stage, the light rare earth market is mainly characterized by low volatility. However, the heavy rare earth market has risen significantly. Due to the impact of high temperatures and rainfall, some rare earth mining enterprises have limited production, and some rare earth manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production, which has led to a decrease in spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in the Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown. In addition, import sources from Myanmar are hindered, and favorable factors support the price trend of heavy rare earth markets.

How to interpret the downward trend of the domestic rare earth market in 2023 and the rare earth market trend in 2024?

Firstly, the country has issued an increase in the total quota for rare earth mining, smelting and separation. In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting separation, which were 255000 tons and 243850 tons respectively, an increase of 45000 tons and 41850 tons compared to 2023 (total rare earth mining of 210000 tons and total smelting separation of 202000 tons), with an increase of approximately 21.43% and 20.72%, respectively. China has large rare earth reserves, high supply, and fast consumption. According to statistics, the total global rare earth reserves are about 130 million tons, and China’s rare earth reserves are 44 million tons, accounting for 33.8% of the global total reserves. With the rapid extraction and consumption of rare earth resources in China, the country has implemented strict control over rare earth extraction and separation. In the past two years, mining indicators have been raised, and the mining indicators in 2024 may be higher than those in 2023, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on the rare earth market. The total amount of mining and smelting separation over the years is as follows:

Secondly, the export volume of rare earths has increased, and export prices have declined. The total export volume of rare earths from January to November 2023 was 48868 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, but the export unit price was 10.7 US dollars/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. The export volume of Chinese rare earths has increased, and the demand for foreign rare earths has increased. However, the export prices have significantly decreased, weakening the bargaining power of domestic rare earth suppliers and to some extent, negatively affecting the domestic rare earth market. The overall price trend of rare earths in 2023 has declined. From the export volume of rare earths over the years, it can be seen that an increase in export volume is the trend. Domestic rare earth suppliers should enhance their bargaining power. Rare earths, as one of the non renewable strategic resources, long-term green and healthy development is a necessary path for the rare earth industry. The statistics of rare earth export volume are as follows:

Finally, the demand side of the new energy industry continues to develop. The development of the new energy sector provides strong support for the domestic rare earth industry, with a significant increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles. In 2023, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase. As of November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%. The continuous development of new energy vehicles has brought long-term positive support to the domestic rare earth industry. In recent years, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are as follows:

To sum up, in 2023, the domestic rare earth market will decline. The country will be more and more strict in the rectification of the rare earth industry. In 2023, the mining output of rare earth will also increase. New energy vehicles will develop faster and faster. This will form a strong support for the demand of the rare earth market. The new energy and wind power industries will continue to develop. The national policies will benefit the development of the industry. In addition, there will still be a gap in the demand for rare earth in China, Chen Ling, a rare earth analyst at Business Society, predicts that the development of the rare earth industry will continue to improve in 2024, reflecting China’s determination to achieve long-term green development of rare earths. The rare earth market may rise in 2024, and it is expected that the lowest price will appear in the second quarter, while the rare earth market may rise in the third and fourth quarters.

Overview of ethylene oxide prices in December

In December, the price of ethylene oxide remained stable. According to data from Business Society, as of December 29th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in the central China market is 6400 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in Northeast China is 6300-6350 yuan/ton.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises have low inventory, relatively stable production, and relatively stable demand for ethylene oxide. The rest of the downstream enterprises mainly operate steadily; From the recent upstream and downstream product prices, it can be seen that downstream prices have started to rise, increasing profit margins and strengthening support for the price of raw material ethylene oxide in the short term.

Short term supply may slightly increase, but prices are unlikely to improve in January

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide remains stable, and recently, ethylene oxide has been operating steadily. Jiangsu Silbang device may restart, with limited increment nationwide. The main downstream industries have not undergone significant changes in production, with stable orders being the main focus. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term.