According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has recently fluctuated and fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5000.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4975.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50%, a month on month decrease of 2.45%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.15%.

Upstream methanol situation: In terms of supply, there is currently not much pressure on power plant replenishment, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. Most of the procurement plans have been postponed, resulting in low market activity. With the start of gas restrictions in Southwest China, there is a downward trend in domestic supply and demand, but there has been no significant change for the time being. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has experienced a slight decline, with downstream demand maintaining procurement and polyformaldehyde manufacturers shipping normally. Business Society polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly decline.

Last week (December 11-17), the trading volume of viscose short fibers was light, and the market remained stable with stable prices. Manufacturer orders are being shipped, and sporadic new orders for essential needs are being completed. The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry is basically maintained, and the overall industry load is currently around 81.7%. Downstream cotton yarn shipments are facing difficulties, inventory is increasing, and most loss making operations are leading to increased plans for early holidays. Most market participants generally believe that prices may still be slightly lowered.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (December 11-17), the overall price of viscose short fibers remained stable. As of December 17, the domestic ex factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose short fibers was 13180 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

In terms of cost: Last week (December 11-17), the price of dissolved pulp remained strong and stable, with no new import prices for dissolved pulp. The negotiated transaction for broadleaf dissolved pulp was maintained at around 900 US dollars per ton, while the negotiated transaction for coniferous dissolved pulp was around 920 US dollars per ton. Domestic Hunan manufacturers produce dissolved slurry, Shandong equipment maintenance, quoted around 7500-7800 yuan/ton, stable price, actual order negotiation.

Supply and demand: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry has remained stable this week, and the overall industry load is currently around 81.7%. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, sporadic orders for replenishment are needed, and there is a slight increase in inventory pressure on manufacturers. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The human cotton yarn is relatively flat, and there are not many new orders that require replenishment. Overall demand continues to be weak.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (December 11-17), human cotton yarn continued its weak performance with low trading volume, and the overall focus of negotiations continued to decline slightly, especially in areas such as vortex spinning and airflow spinning. Sales are poor, overall shipments are slowing down, and the operating load of human cotton yarn is basically maintained at around 67%, with a slight increase in inventory. Most small factories maintain production in a state of slight losses, with some under significant pressure. The market lacks confidence in the later stage, and some small factories have partial intentions to reduce or stop production under pressure from multiple parties. The market generally believes that there is little improvement before the Spring Festival, or there is a possibility of further decline. As of December 17th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.15%.

Future Market Forecast

The price center of raw material dissolution slurry is strong, with strong cost support, but the market procurement enthusiasm is still not high. Downstream demand continues to be weak, with most small factories maintaining production in a slightly loss state. Some small factories are under great pressure, and some have intentions to reduce or stop production. The market lacks confidence in the later stage and is bearish on the market before the Spring Festival. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, the market for viscose short fibers and artificial cotton yarn will continue to operate weakly, with prices mainly experiencing a slight bearish decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 12th to 19th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15833 yuan/ton to 16000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.05% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.44%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.04%. The domestic aggregated MDI market first stabilized and then strengthened, with most suppliers completing their year-end tasks ahead of schedule and slow delivery rates. Coupled with maintenance cycles, the operating load remains low, and the downstream cold chain industry maintains stable output. The market is in short supply, boosting its momentum.

The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has experienced slight fluctuations in the domestic pure benzene market. As of December 19th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6837.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market is operating weakly. As of December 19th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 10600.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of MDI aggregation is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, as the annual handover month approaches, some contract orders have signed plans, creating a strong atmosphere of upward momentum. Although the follow-up ability on the demand side is still average, and with the recent rainy, snowy, and cold weather in the north, construction is hindered, and the support on the consumption side is insufficient. Recently, there are limitations on on-site warehouse orders, and there is a focus on following up on essential orders. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, as prices rise, there will be an increase in the willingness to ship some goods. We are waiting for the improvement of follow-up power. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic MDI market trend will be mainly strong and follow up.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price remained stable this week, with a price of 282.00 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 10.00% year-on-year.

The upstream market has slightly increased, while the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have remained stable this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the sulfur market in the upstream has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 1060.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1096.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 3.46%, and a year-on-year decrease of 28.94% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has remained stable at a high level, with a market price of 3500.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price fell by 2.78% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 16650.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 16483.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.00%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.45% over the weekend. The downstream market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support has increased. However, the downstream titanium dioxide market has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and some spot prices have been slightly adjusted. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 15th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14375 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.61% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has been fluctuating recently. The increase in pure benzene prices this week has boosted the cost support for caprolactam. Downstream procurement expectations are expected to improve due to the impact of production expansion. However, some production line equipment maintenance in the early stage of the industry has returned, and market supply has increased, so the long short game on the market continues. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will shift from weak consolidation to strong consolidation in the short term.

In terms of supply:

This week, there was a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of around 75% in the interval. The market supply has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level is still not high, and there is no significant increase in supplier pressure, which still provides support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 68% and 81%, respectively. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. Trading is concentrated near maintaining production demand, with replenishment prices mostly centered around the low-end, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slicing is average.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PA6 market stabilized and saw a narrow rise. The price of caprolactam fluctuated slightly, while the cost support for PA6 was average. The load of domestic polymerization plants is almost horizontal, and the inventory position remains low. The demand side is cautious in purchasing goods, and market trading tends towards the low-end. It is expected that the supply of goods in the future may increase due to new production facilities, and the PA6 market may continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.