Recently (11.11~11.19), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 19, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 14280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.99% from 15030 yuan/ton on November 11. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production slightly decreased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their offers. As of November 18th, the mainstream prices for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze regions in East China range from 13700 to 14450 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the price of butadiene was 10162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.09% from 10937 yuan/ton on November 11th.

Recently (11.11~11.19), the domestic butadiene rubber plant started production at 6.4%, with stable, moderate, and slight fluctuations as the main trend.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, and demand is mainly supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of November 15th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly fall, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will shift downwards; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a slight resistance to the high price supply. In general, the short-term or weak adjustment of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market is dominant.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from last week this week (11.11-15). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5206 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.19% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Since November, PVC prices have continued to decline. This week, due to the lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, PVC prices continued to fall, and as of the weekend, prices have slightly stopped falling. On the one hand, due to the weakness of the crude oil market and the decline in futures prices, the spot PVC market has been linked to a downward trend, coupled with loose supply and demand performance. In the past two months, the operating rate of manufacturers has generally increased, with more than half of them operating at full capacity. Market shipment pressure has increased, and dealer offers have continued to decline. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5100-5300 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since November, the price of calcium carbide has stopped rising and mainly operated at a high level. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since November has been zero. Overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week was weak, with limited support, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the pressure on PVC supply and demand will not decrease, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory will be high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market trend was volatile from November 8th to 15th, 2024. On November 8th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% from 5860 yuan/ton on November 15th. The xylene market has fluctuated downward in this cycle, with overall supply being loose and downstream procurement enthusiasm not high. The market is generally on a wait-and-see attitude.

Cost wise: As of November 16th, WTI crude oil futures for December were reported at $67.02 per barrel, down 4.77% this week. Brent crude oil futures for January were reported at $71.04 per barrel, down 3.83% this week. After the US election, the US dollar exchange rate continued to rise, putting pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, the market expects strong support for the oil and gas industry to reduce inflation and achieve energy independence during the campaign. The market expects an increase in US crude oil production, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil oversupply will reach over 1 million barrels per day by 2025. Affected by this, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend this cycle.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has been partially reduced. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of November 15th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5800-5900 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 15th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 11th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 14th, the closing price of the Asian xylene market fell by $7/ton, with closing prices of $786-788/ton FOB Korea and $811-813/ton CFR China, a decrease of $23/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: The crude oil market trend is weak, with limited cost support. In terms of supply, refinery inventories have been low recently, and port inventories have also been operating at a low level, resulting in less supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream procurement intentions are biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the market atmosphere has been relatively weak recently, and the price trend has been volatile.

The domestic phenol market is running weakly. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the price of phenol in the domestic market was 7500-7550 yuan/ton on November 14th. The downstream terminal market showed weak buying enthusiasm, with primary demand and low delivery rates. Traders were unable to ship smoothly, and the market opened at a low level in the morning, with limited room for profit.

Sinopec East China phenol price is implemented at 7600 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 7600-7650 yuan/ton. As of the 14th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 14th/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7520./ -50

Shandong region/ 7650./ 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7600./ -20

South China region/ 7620./ -20

It i

s expected that the phenol market will experience narrow fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the fundamental dynamics of supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market remained stable with small fluctuations in the first half of November, and prices of various brand products were mostly stable. As of November 13th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7585.71 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.09% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the first half of November showed a pattern of first rising and then falling. The news that the OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction plan has been extended until the end of December is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the improvement of local economies in Asia has eased market panic on demand, boosting the international oil market. However, due to the disturbance of the US presidential election and the expected easing of the geopolitical situation, the recent crude oil change rate has remained negative, and the upstream support of PP has fallen. On the other hand, the positive effects of the previous supply contraction and increased demand for propylene are gradually dissipating, and the pursuit of high consumption is becoming more cautious. Recently, there has been a volatile pullback situation. The supply and demand of methanol have remained stable, with prices running at a stalemate. Propane is currently being suppressed by upstream trends and affected by abundant supply in the domestic market, with price consolidation being the main focus. Overall, in the first half of November, the raw materials for PP remained stable with some weakness, and the support on the cost side was average.

Supply side:

Since November, the load level of domestic PP enterprises has been reduced due to the implementation of equipment maintenance plans by some enterprises. The overall industry load has decreased from 76.5% at the beginning of the month to below 75%. At present, the inventory of two barrels of PP oil in China is stable at around 720000 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous period. But the supply is still at a sufficient level. Overall, the supply side provides sufficient support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

In the first half of November, there were limited changes in the demand side of PP, and the load of end enterprises flattened. Although the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remains stable and the willingness to hold positions is strong, the warehousing of other downstream enterprises has generally declined. Both film and pipe companies have experienced a narrow contraction in their raw material inventory, which is beneficial for smoothing out plastic weaving. However, with the disturbance of the US election results, the decline in overseas commodities has triggered a reassessment of domestic assets, and market sentiment has warmed up, providing slight support for PP prices. Overall, the demand side is struggling with hedging in various aspects and generally stable.

Future forecast

The domestic PP market prices remained stagnant in the first half of November. Fundamentally speaking, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP is first strong and then weak, with demand side long and short hedging. The supply side maintenance is concentrated, but according to market feedback, there are concerns among industry players about the release of new production capacity in the future. In the short term, the market has been struggling with the game recently, and it is expected that PP prices will continue to consolidate and operate. It is recommended to focus on policy factors and upstream commodity prices in the future.